For Columbus Blue Jackets fans in the closing days of the 2015-16 regular season, we’ve watched a team that has languished in the bottom tier of the league standings most of the campaign. We’ve also wondered when, and how, this team can become a success, a perennial winner.
With that in mind, I’d like to present three truths and an opinion. I hope we can find common ground on the first three. I won’t disagree if you reject the opinion.
The Playoffs
The first truth: the Blue Jackets are not going to make the playoffs. This is not an easy thing to digest, and if we’re being as blindly optimistic as possible there is still a minimal chance. Yet if we’re being realistic, the chance is too small to matter. Micah McCurdy’s model helps paint the picture.
Playoff chances, west and east. pic.twitter.com/ScuufzYAI2
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 24, 2016
If we’re also to follow McCurdy’s point projections, the last Wild Card in the East will have around 93 points. As of this writing, with 20 games remaining, the Blue Jackets would need to go about 17-2-1 to hit that number. Never mind the complexities of tiebreakers, bonus points from OT games, and all the teams to jump. Achieving the necessary raw point total alone will not happen.
That doesn’t mean you or I need to be happy. I’ll be open: it sucks that the team I like isn’t going to the playoffs. It sucks that I won’t get that unmatched, visceral fan experience from best-of-seven emotion. I got a taste of that in the 2014 Pittsburgh series, and I want it back. This version of reality is not fun for a Blue Jackets fan.
The Entry Draft
The second truth: there is a reward to losing in the National Hockey League. It’s not the way teams or the league or ticket reps would like you to rationalize the situation, but it’s reality. It’s called the Entry Draft.
The Entry Draft is a means of artificially generating parity by ensuring that bad teams get the first shot at the best new talent. And the benefits don’t end here for the bad teams. Thanks to the CBA and restricted free agency, freshly drafted players come into the league on entry level contracts that have minimal leverage for big money deals until the players hit their mid-20s. Thus, the drafting team has cost control over foundational players through most of their prime hockey years. The positive impact of being bad over just a few seasons, is the reward of excellent, cheap players for a long time.
Again, the point is for teams that are struggling to get a jump start on the road to success so that the average level of competition is upheld across all teams in the league. The rich don’t just get richer, the poor don’t just get poorer.
The wrinkle comes when this losing performance is by design.
The NHL has tried to disincentivize the payoff for (perhaps overtly) poor performance by introducing the draft lottery and then changing the lottery odds. The prize for losing is still substantial. Under the new system, the worst team in the league still has a 20% chance to pick first, and can only fall to fourth. If you like Bob McKenzie’s rankings at TSN, the “worst” case draft target outcome for a 30th place team is Matthew Tkachuk (currently scoring just under two points per game in the OHL). The good version of events brings one of McKenzie’s Big Three into view.
You don’t need to enjoy the way the Entry Draft works, the way losing is valued. It’s simply the reality of the current NHL.
(And if you’d like to imagine a different scenario, you might want to read Travis Yost’s thoughts on how salary cap alone could serve as balancing force in hockey.)
The Need for Help
The third truth: the Columbus Blue Jackets still need help at multiple positions. The macro view first: the CBJ are still not winning the shot battle with regularity. Again, I look to Micah McCurdy’s work at Hockey Viz, and his summary page on the CBJ. Even after the season-opening losing streak finished? The shot battle (the second plot from the top) is still very red. There are different approaches to solving this, but the Jackets need help.
Thinking slightly smaller, the Blue Jackets have serious needs on offense. The CBJ are only so-so at scoring (20th best in the NHL this year, per time on ice via WoI). From here, the exact diagnosis isn’t so definitive. It’s nice to see Saad, Jenner, Hartnell, and Atkinson potting so many goals. After them, what’s the outlook? Will Jenner’s shooting percentage always be so high? Will Hartnell’s age eventually catch up with him?
At an ever more specific level, Ryan Johansen is gone to Nashville. Is Alexander Wennberg the first line center of the future, and Dubinsky at second? How does the depth look with Dubinsky in the top six? What is the outlook at wing after Brandon Saad? Seth Jones and the addition of Zach Werenski might help overhaul the blueline. Are they enough? Will all three defensive pairs be competent at moving the puck up ice?
This is not to say the Blue Jackets are not good. There is talent to be maximized. But this is about being “the best,” and that requires elite talent.
Every NHL roster has holes. I have fundamental questions about the current talent level of the Columbus Blue Jackets at many different positions when it comes to having what it takes to reach the goal we all share: a Championship. Perhaps the order of importance is a matter of opinion. A season of sub-par shot differentials, ineffective offense, and poor defense suggest that help is needed across the lineup.
Embracing the Escape
The opinion: I don’t expect agreement on this conclusion, but I think it follows logically from the three truths of the CBJ season. There is no playoff outlook, so the need to win is diminished.
I would like the Columbus Blue Jackets to escape the purgatory of draft picks in the 6-14 range. While talent is good in the mid-first round, it isn’t always “elite,” or “game changing.” Given the realities of what this team can achieve in the balance of this season standings-wise, I believe it is good to embrace the tank, to embrace the benefit of the NHL entry draft structure.
The Draft offers the most reward to teams that do worst, and the rewards reach far into the future. The CBJ are in need for improvement throughout their roster. The tank is a way toward long-term help.
I won’t operate under delusion: this path is still very, very hard. The rebuild after bottoming out is not a quick one. The Los Angeles Kings were third-worst in the NHL in 06-07, they finished last in 07-08, and then near the bottom again in 08-09 before finally clawing toward the playoffs. The rewards included Drew Doughty and Brayden Schenn, and ultimately more than one Stanley Cup. The Washington Capitals finished thirst-worst in the NHL in 03-04, and then worst in division for the next two seasons. Their draft bounty was Alexander Ovechkin, and Nicklas Backstrom. The Pittsburgh and Chicago stories are already well-worn, and also feature years of low standing before finally reaching playoff success.
Filling out a roster with good players isn’t easy. 29 other teams are pushing for free agent contracts, working trades, trying to construct at the same time. Building with great talent as a starting point does minimize some of the hardest work early in the process.
It must also be said, that player talent must be enveloped by solid systems, sound development and effective coaching. Viewing the this season’s Washington Capitals and the recent-day Edmonton Oilers demonstrates the extreme of draft success and NHL success.
Of Players and Teams
A common response to suggesting the goal of losses is disgust, and I understand the feeling. As sports fans, we’ve been trained to accept winning as the only goal, the only defensible option. I’ve no real response here: a positive stance toward losing is a matter of opinion, and I only hope I’ve presented why this approach to the Draft makes sense to me.
Another concern is a cultural one. “I don’t want players that want to lose.” The good news: such choice is largely out of the hands of the players. In a proper run toward the top draft pick, the team is systemically weak, not individually. Put enough sub-par players together, and place them in roles beyond their abilities? Losses will follow. Talent and unfair matchups will overcome.
Consider the Buffalo Sabres last year: were all the players actively trying to lose games? Or was their ineffective play the work of Tim Murray’s roster assembly? When moved to other clubs, Chris Stewart (now ANA) and Tyler Myers (now WPG) have been successful. The individuals were still trying, still pushing to earn new contracts, to shore up their positions as NHL regulars. The Sabres were built to lack sufficient depth of talent, and thus lost with frequency.
Columbus needn’t poison the team to encourage more losing. Instead, it only requires trading a few good players to expose a lack of depth.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
