Blessing or Curse? NMC’s and the Expansion Draft Could Have Massive Impact on the CBJ

Details leaked out yesterday regarding the potential expansion draft, tentatively set for June 2017. All hockey talk then stopped as fans of every team went bonkers figuring out who they would protect from their team, dreaming ahead to the expansion draft, and just general excitement about the whole shebang. Expansion drafts are tons of fun. However, there is a nightmare scenario for the CBJ pending how the details of the expansion draft end up. Elliotte Friedman had a great breakdown of all the details yesterday in the introduction section of his (always amazing) 30 Thoughts:

One agent thought players with no-move clauses might be eligible for selection if they submitted a written agreement saying so. His argument was that some players would want to go to Las Vegas, since there is no state income tax. But that theory was met with scepticism from several other sources who believe the NHL wants a blanket policy.

This leads to two more questions: First, how will no-trade clauses be treated? Should someone with this slightly inferior protection expect total safety from expansion selection? After all, they could be claimed by any club on waivers.

Second, does a player with a no-move clause count among the guys you have to protect? This is relevant because everyone is expecting Commissioner Gary Bettman to make any new team competitive. There will be no creation of patsies here.

In other words, players with No Movement Clauses are likely going to end up unavailable for selection in the expansion draft. They might be might be able to waive them, however this seems unlikely. More importantly, players with NMC’s might count towards the number of players each team is able to protect. Teams have two options when it comes to protecting players, either 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and 1 goalie, or 8 skaters and 1 goalie. Any player with at least two years of pro experience under their belt (including the AHL) will need to be protected. Per General Fanager, here is a breakdown of all the salary and NMC’s for players the CBJ would need to consider protecting:

That list does not include players who will be pending unrestricted free agents next offseason, and players who have not shown enough at the NHL or AHL level to be considered for protection.

The problem becomes clear pretty quickly. If players with NMC’s are eligible to be exposed, then the CBJ would be able to expose some pretty talented players who have bloated contracts. Someone like Tyutin being plucked in the expansion draft would be great for the Jackets. Same with David Clarkson (obviously), and maybe even a couple of the higher performing, yet older guys with NMC’s (Foligno, Dubinsky, and Hartnell). Of those players, I would not expect anyone other than maybe David Clarkson to waive his NMC to end up on an expansion team.

Best case scenario for the CBJ: They can expose Tyutin and Clarkson, and both get selected. It clears up their cap situation while also not sacrificing too much on-ice production. An expansion team might take a flyer on one of those two, as they would need to hit the salary cap floor, and draft a player from each team. The CBJ could also sweeten the deal with a swap of draft picks pending the expansion team selecting one of those guys.

Middle of the road scenario (which is also really good): Players with NMC’s are not exposed in the draft, but do NOT count towards the limit on protected players. That would allow the CBJ to protect 11 forwards: Dubinsky, Foligno, Clarkson and Hartnell (due to NMC’s) and the other seven forwards from the above list. Four defensemen would be protected as well, Tyutin with his NMC, then three of Jones, Murray, Savard (my three choices), Johnson, and Paliotta. In any scenario, the CBJ would be forced to select between the promise and low salary of Korpisalo, and the Vezina pedigree, injury risk, and high salary of Bobrovksy.

Worst case doomsday scenario: Players with NMC’s can’t be exposed, can’t be asked to waive them, and count towards the number of players protected. Reading between the lines of Friedman’s post, this sounds like the NHL’s preferred plan. It would also be devastating for the CBJ. This would mean that four of the seven protected forwards would be Dubinsky, Foligno, Clarkson, and Hartnell. That would then leave only three spots for Brandon Saad, Cam Atkinson, Boone Jenner and Alexander Wennberg (as well as Calvert, Rychel, and Karlsson). My personal list would end up leaving Cam Atkinson exposed. That would add another layer of tragedy to the David Clarkson-Nathan Horton trade, as Horton does not have an NMC. It’s not much better on defense, as Fedor Tyutin would be taking up one of the three spots. Ryan Murray and Seth Jones are shoo-ins for the other spots, leaving Jack Johnson, David Savard, and Michael Paliotta exposed.

This is all up in the air until the league confirms exactly what the rules will be. There are a few other tweaks that could also impact the expansion list, as teams might be forced to expose 25% of the salary cap. That could further complicate things, possibly meaning the CBJ will need to expose Sergei Bobrovsky or Brandon Saad to hit that threshold. Let’s hope that John Davidson and Jarmo Kekelainen are doing everything in their power to convince the NHL and NHLPA for a more favorable set of rules. The devil is in the details for the Blue Jackets, and how those details shake out could make us very happy or continue to rue the lack of insurance on a certain players contract.

NOTE: There are some discrepancies on player NMC’s. A few other sites do not have NMC’s listed for the players above. However, I am sticking with General Fanager’s listings, as they actually list a source for their contract details, and have picked up the sources and information from the venerable CapGeek.