The Giants are one win away from a World Series

Back in March, I did the FanHouse primer on the Giants and wrote this:

Their roster is really one of the craziest mismashes of young talent and incredibly over-priced aging players in either league. On one hand there’s Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Pablo Sandoval with Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner waiting in the wings. On the other, there’s Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria with new additions Mark DeRosa and Freddy Sanchez (who signed an extension with the Giants after ending 2009 on the disabled list, which is exactly where he’s expected to begin 2010). 

The problem for now is that with all the cash tied up in those vets, the Giants couldn’t go out and get the bats needed to help Lincecum and company make that final jump to the playoffs. Instead, they’ve settled for marginal improvements in the hope that their pitching staff will excel again while Buster Posey hurries his way to San Francisco. It’s not exactly the best plan, but then again it might actually work.

I concluded with this:

There are still plenty of questions about their lineup and the West figures to be the toughest division in the National League this coming season, so the playoffs are far from a sure thing, but it’s hard to imagine them not being competitive because of their pitching.

A month ago, when the Giants were battling the Braves and Padres for the last two playoff spots, that prediction looked like it was dead on. Today, the Giants are one win shy of the World Series and I’m no different than every other pundit in the world that undersold them before the season started.

Part of the reason for that is because, as Billy Beane famously said, “What happens [in the playoffs] is f#$%ing luck.” Maybe the Giants don’t beat the Braves if they have Martin Prado, Chipper Jones, and Jair Jurrjens. Maybe if those guys stay healthy the Braves top the Phillies in the NL East and the Giants draw the Phils instead. And maybe a short series plays out differently between those two teams. Maybe the Giants don’t survive a three-way playoff if they have to play the Padres and Braves for the last spots in the NL. Maybe they match up differently if they end up playing Cincinnati instead of Atlanta. Maybe they lose in Game 7 if they don’t get that amazing comeback win in Game 4. There are a million things in any given playoffs that go right for any team to win the World Series, whether the team that wins is the overwhelming favorite, like last year’s Yankees, or a surprise from nowhere, like the Giants (or Rangers if they come back).

But the playoffs are more than just a crapshoot. It’s not as simple as “good pitching always beats good hitting” but being really good at something will almost always give you a chance to win. And in a short series (best of five or seven qualify), a chance to win is often enough. Against the Phillies, good pitching kept the Giants close enough for some unlikely offensive heroes to put them over the top. Against the Rangers, it’s kept them ahead by slim margins until the Rangers bullpen comes into the games and implodes.

Anyways, I’m rambling now, but the point that I’m trying to make is that this Giants team is exactly why Neal Huntington has loaded up on pitching the last two drafts. This team is what he’s trying to make. The Pirates’ margin for error is slim, but good pitching increases that margin. Think about this: the Giants are one win away from a World Series in a season in which their starting playoff infield has predominantly been Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, Juan Uribe, and Edgar Renteria. Can you imagine the fallout if the Pirates rolled that infield out every day? I’d certainly be pissed about it. But it doesn’t matter because they have Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and Bumgarner starting every game and the right pieces in the bullpen to get them to Brian Wilson. They spent eleventy billion dollars on Barry Zito, but because they have four talented young guys they can still afford a team with a great rotation. Their talent increased their margin of error.

Of course, everything is tougher for the Pirates. They can’t afford to make a Zito-level mistake ever. I’m not sure they can afford to make a Mark DeRosa-level mistake. Getting two insanely talented guys like Lincecum and Bumgarner together with two very solid guys like Cain and Sanchez is something that the Pirates might not duplicate with a million draft picks. You can see what Neal Huntington has in mind, though, and that’s worth something. The question is whether this road map can get the Pirates where the Giants are, and if Huntington can adapt if it looks like it won’t.