In yesterday’s Post-Gazette, Michael Sanserino has a really nice story about the big strides being made by Robbie Grossman in Bradenton this year. Grossman, you’ll recall, was a sixth round pick in 2008 that was one of Neal Huntington’s first big over-slot signings. In Grossman’s first two years in the minors — one in West Virginia and one in Bradenton — he struck out 282 times and walked 141 times in 1,097 plate appearances. He didn’t show much power either, just nine homers and 50 doubles in the two years, and his OPS dropped from .728 to .688 in his first two full years.
This year, though, he’s been an entirely different player. He’s still walking at a good rate (72 in 384 PAs), but he’s only struck out 68 times in the same span. He’s only slugging .397, so he’s not showing a ton of power yet, but he’s already matched his career high in home runs (five) and he’s heading towards his career high in doubles (he’s got 17, his career high is 29). His triple-slash line at the plate this year is .283/.421/.397. He’s obviously a ways away from the Majors and he’s far from a sure thing thanks to his lack of power, but he’s restored at least some of his prospect status this year and reestablished himself as a guy to watch in the Pirates’ system.
If anything, what Grossman’s reemergence this year does is reaffirms that low level prospects, especially kids drafted right out of high school, have to be evaluated very carefully and over the span of a couple of years. Had Grossman not signed with the Pirates, he would’ve gone to Texas for three years and would’ve been back in the 2011 draft. In all likelihood, he’d just be reaching the level he’s been at for two years (Advanced-A) early next spring. That’s not to say that his development has been advanced by being in the Pirates’ system instead of college, just that we have to keep his relative age in mind as we’re trying to evaluate his journey through the minors.
Ultimately, Grossman’s career is probably going to be decided by his ability to develop some power. Nate McLouth is always the example Pirate fans think of as a guy with late-blooming power, and he followed a pretty same career arc as Grossman has so far. He was drafted out of high school, went to Single-A as a 19-year old, struggled as a 20-year old in Advanced-A, blossomed there at 21, and was with the Pirates two years later. They’re not exactly the same types of hitters, though. McLouth didn’t strike out nearly as much as Grossman did in his first two years and even though we all think of him as someone that didn’t have a ton of power in the minors, he had a lot more gap power than Grossman’s shown. He sluggled .464 with 12 homers in Single-A at 19 and when he repeated Advanced-A, he slugged .411. Grossman only has 14 homers in his career thus far, and if he can get his slugging percentage over .400 by the end of 2011, it’ll be the first time he’s done it in his career.
Still, he’s developing and improving and he’s still young enough for these sorts of steps forward to matter. Given the preponderance of high school pitching the Pirates have drafted in the three drafts after the one in which Grossman was taken, his development path is one that’s worth keeping in mind before we start writing prospects off completely.
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