Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham, and the questions Neal Huntington must ask himself at this trade deadline

With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, Neal Huntington seems set on doing something to improve the Pirates’ chances of contending in 2011. In one story this morning, Rob Biertempfel mentions Hunter Pence, Aramis Ramirez, Josh Willingham, while Jerry Crasnick adds Conor Jackson’s name into the mix. If those four names should make it obvious enough what Huntington’s looking for: a right-handed, four corners bat with pop. 

Let’s start with the guy that would be the most dramatic and pricey acquisition, Pence. Pence is having a career year at the age of 28 in Houston. He’s making $6.8 million with two arbitration years left. My guess is that a Pence trade would look similar to the trade the Pirates pulled off with the Yankees involving Xavier Nady three years ago; in fact, it would probably include Jose Tabata. To get a deal for Pence done, the Pirates will likely have to part with something along the lines of Tabata, Rudy Owens, and someone like Brad Lincoln or Bryan Morris. Wade might want more, but knowing Ed Wade he’s looking for a young Major League player with some upside and “Major League ready” minor league arms. 

It’s pricey, but the Pirates can probably make this trade: when Tabata comes back, they’ll be playing three centerfielders in the outfield and to be honest, it’s awfully hard to see Tabata developing the sort of power scouts once saw for him. He’s young and promising but injury-prone. I think he’s going to become a great leadoff hitter, but you can certainly make the case that Pence fits the current team’s needs better than he does and Starling Marte’s continued performance in the minors makes Tabata somewhat expendable. 

Making that deal, though, suddenly sets a lot of things in motion and makes some assumptions. Here’s a partial list:

1. No Owens/whoever else means Paul Maholm’s option will probably have to be picked up (you can now start adding salary for 2012 up in your head: $9 million for Maholm, $8 million for Pence, McCutchen as a potential super-two or having signed an extension …).
2. It assumes Alex Presley is a big league starter. Presley has been fantastic so far, but it’s still a big league from an ostentatious debut to an every-day player. 
3. It assumes Starling Marte, whose minor league line is very batting average-driven, is a top-tier prospect. 
4. By thinning out the pitching depth in the top of the system, it assumes that at least one of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are going to make their way to Pittsburgh in a hurry. 
5. It assumes Hunter Pence is making a step forward in 2011, and not having a career year. 

It might be the last of those three that worries me the most. Pence is having a great season: he’s hitting .321/.363/.489 and though he’s only got 11 homers, his 24 doubles has him on pace to blow past his career high of 34. What makes me nervous, though, is how much of that line is batting average. His walk rate is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year (6.1%), his strikeout rate is above 20% for the first time in his career,  and his BABIP is .385, which is well above his career rate of .328. Add in that his isolated power (.168) is well off of his career rate and seems to be in decline, and I’ve got some real concerns about how he fits as a right-handed hitter in a PNC Park that’s generally not friendly to righties. 

Pence is probably the only impact-type player the Pirates can add at this deadline and keep, but that’s going to make him awfully expensive. That means the Pirates have to be sure he’s an impact player and that he will be beyond 2011 because, really, the trade is based on that assumption. Honestly, I’m not convinced of that at all. All of Pence’s peripherals that help predict future play have gone down pretty consistently in the last two years. I’m worried that if we give up a nice haul for Pence now, we’re going to a decent (or worse) two months, an ugly 2012, and then we’re going to have to dump his salary before his final arbitration year puts him over $10 million in 2013.

Everyone’s understandably focused on 2011 right now, but a Pence acquisition would necessitate some thinking about the future, too, because we’d be paying for those years in the trade. In short, if you could guarantee to me that Pence was going to perform somewhere between the way he’s started 2011 and his career averages through 2013, I’d strongly consider making the deal. Pence’s ZiPS for the rest of the season (ZiPS R at FanGraphs) in Houston, predict he’ll finish 2011 at a .290/.337/.468 pace. Is that something worth trading a haul for? Especially given that you’ve got him for two more years after his 28th birthday? I think that’s an awfully risky trade for the Pirates (UPDATE: User thecheeseisblue at Bucs Dugout has already done a lengthier comparison of Pence vs. Tabata and comes to basically the same conclusion, that Pence is likely not worth it). 

I really do expect the Pirates to dig for someone more like Willingham, who’s a bit player that’s probably undervalued because of the way Oakland kills offensive stats. Willingham himself seems like a bad fit with Steve Pearce coming back, but that sort of trade seems way more likely than a blockbuster for Pence. Beyond that, I still think that the Pirates’ best weapon at this deadline is going to be the ability to add salary for a player like Ramirez (who’s option would have to be renegotiated), Carlos Pena, Carlos Beltran, or Rafael Furcal.

It’s also important to remember that the obvious ways aren’t the only ways to improve a baseball team. Clint Hurdle has stuck with his platoon against lefties all year to get Garrett Jones and Lyle Overbay away from tough matchups, and the Pirates have been just as good or better against left-handed pitching in 2011, despite having two non-entities against lefties in Jones and Overbay and Neil Walker’s awful struggles from the right side of the plate. The Pirates have weaknesses, sure, but it won’t necessarily take a huge trade to fix them.