Beating the Spread: AAC Week 10

Welcome to Week 10 of the college football season everyone! Week 9 brought another 3-1 record against the spread in the AAC for me, so I have officially gotten back above the .500 mark on the season as I sit at 20-18-1. I’m 6-2 in the last two weeks by the way, so either jump on board while I’m hot or plan accordingly for the meteoric crash back to earth.

This week features five conference showdowns with some tough betting lines. The only AAC team not playing is SMU, and we have two Friday night games, which just happens to be Halloween–I apologize for the puns and general corniness now. You have been warned.

Let’s get to the goods.

Friday

Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Tulane, 8:00 p.m. ET

Halloween in New Orleans… sounds spooky, right? This game sort of has the feel of a Tuberville-ian (new word?) loss waiting to happen. The ingredients are right at least: on the road in a Friday night game against a team his should beat.

Other than just having that feel to it, the Bearcats may actually have their hands full in avoiding a case of the bayou blues. While Cincinnati does have the 12th-best passing attack in the country (322 yards per game) and is expecting Gunner Kiel to play, the Green Wave pass defense has been more treat than trick this season. They are allowing 202.6 yards per game, good for 30th best in the FBS, and are tied for 20th-best in interceptions with 10.

If UC can expose Tulane’s secondary, then this could turn ugly fast. The Green Wave only average 354 yards and 18 points per game, both numbers that fall outside the top 100 in the FBS. Although Cincinnati has looked like it has been playing ghosts in the secondary at times with so many blown coverages and big plays allowed, the defense has shown an ability to at least handle poor offenses.

I think the Bearcats’ offense gets rolling again with Mike Boone and a revitalized running game that leads to some big play opportunities in the air for Kiel and his bevy of game-breaking receivers. Take Cincinnati and eat the points here because it should win by more than a touchdown.

Tulsa @ Memphis (-24.5), 8:00 p.m. ET

Memphis welcomes Tulsa to the Liberty Bowl as a heavy favorite, which is fitting for the Tigers on Halloween (get it? Orange and black? *crickets*). Memphis is one of the more balanced teams in the country as it ranks in the Top 50 in passing, rushing and scoring offense, while also only allowing 19.3 points per game on defense, good for 16th-best in the FBS.

Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane ranks 119th in scoring defense and 116th in total defense by giving up 40.7 points and 494.9 yards per game. Tulsa still has yet to win a game since beating Tulane in double overtime at home in the first week of the season.

I expect Memphis to control this game and win pretty handily, but 24.5 is a lot for a team to cover. I’m actually going to take the points and the Golden Hurricane in this one, but mainly because it’s just the better bet to make than the fact that I have any actual confidence in Tulsa.

Saturday

UCF (-10.5) @ UConn, Noon ET

The Knights have hit their stride lately, and have won in the same fashion they did last year: too close for comfort. Three of UCF’s five wins have come by seven points or less, and this game has the look of another close contest.

UConn’s offense has been the definition of a struggle this season, ranking 122nd in total offense with 21 being its highest point output. That said, the Huskies play solid defense under Bob Diaco, and the Knights’ offense isn’t exactly stellar either as it ranks 116th in total offense.

I fully expect this game to be ugly, full of defensive stats and close throughout. UCF should get the win here, but UConn can definitely keep it within the 10.5 point spread. I like the Huskies and the points here.

ECU (-7.5) @ Temple, Noon ET

ECU has become one of the non-Power five darlings in college football this season with a few early season non-conference victories, and thus have had a rough three-game stretch losing ATS as 40-, 17- and 27-point favorites in AAC play. Meanwhile, Temple is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a home dog.

The Owls surprised everyone early with a 4-1 start, but now sit at 4-3 after losing road games to Houston by 21 and UCF by 20. Temple’s four wins also came against some rather lackluster competition, so the two losses to the Cougars and Knights may have exposed them a bit.

I realize the Owls have played better at home than on the road and that the Pirates struggled to put away UConn at home last week, but it seems pretty clear that Temple’s start was fueled by weak competition. ECU is the better team here, and only being favored by 7.5 seems pretty low to me. Lay the points and take the Pirates.

Houston (-9) @ USF, 4:00 p.m. ET

After an uneven start to the season, Houston has started to steady itself and is playing good football coming off of back-to-back quality wins on the road at Memphis and home against Temple. The Cougars have been stout on defense this year and are allowing 17.9 ppg, ranking 10th in the nation. The switch to Greg Ward, Jr. at quarterback has turned the Houston offense around, making it much more dynamic. Ward lit up Temple last week by completing 29-of-33 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 44 yards.

USF on the other hand is going in the wrong direction. On the field, it looks like the Bulls have improved from the product they were last season, but it certainly has not shown up in the box scores or the win column. While they do have one more win already than they managed last season with three, those wins have come against Western Carolina, UConn and Tulsa, and all have been by eight points or less. In their losses, the Bulls are being beaten by an average of 16.8 points a game.

These two teams are simply trending in different directions right now, and because they are only getting nine points in this one, I cannot take the Bulls despite their 4-1 record ATS in their last five games. I like Houston to keep building on its recent success and cover the spread in this one.