Free Matt Hague?

In nine spring training games, Matt Hague is hitting .429/.429/.714 with two home runs. Since he’s coming off of a season in which he hit .309/.372./.457 (37 doubles, three triples, 12 homers) with Indianapolis, he’s generating a bit of buzz as a strong candidate for a roster spot and a role as Garrett Jones’ platoon partner. So who is Matt Hague? What can we expect to see from him as a big leauger?

The main reason that I’m not hugely excited about Hague yet is pretty straightforward: he’s old. The Pirates drafted him as a senior out of Oklahoma State, then he spent most of the second half of 2008 in Single-A with Hickory. He hit fairly well there (.321/.384/.470), but he wasn’t overwhelmingly impressive the way you might expect a 22-year old to be at a low level in the minors. By comparison, Matt Curry was 22 this year when he destroyed Single-A pitching and the club placed Aaron Baker right in Advanced-A at the age of 22. Both of those guys were drafted as juniors, of course, the way most college players are and it’s understandable that the Pirates didn’t want to just take Hague and toss him into the fire at Advanced-A straight out of college. Still, being drafted as a senior put Hague a year behind where you’d expect a college first baseman drafted in the eighth round to be and he’s never quite performed at a leve high enough to make that year up the way you might hope. 

That’s not to say he’s been bad as a minor leaguer with the Pirates, just that he hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive. Here are his year-by-year stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/16/2012.

There are some pretty encouraging things here. Hague obviously relies on batting average quite a bit for his total offensive production, but he doesn’t strike out a ton and that helps offset his somewhat subpar walk rate. Still, if I had to guess I’d say he could probably hit for a decent average in the Majors at this point in his career, which is important if he’s going to contribute offensively at all. He also hasn’t show much of a platoon split to this point in his minor league career (he’s actually got a bit of a reverse split to this point in his career). 

The other good news is that while he doesn’t have a ton of power, it does seem like he’s at least developing some as his career goes along. He progressed a level every year from 2009-2011, and his slugging percentage went up each year, too. Fifty-two extra base hits is nothing to sneeze at, even if it they come from a 25-year old in Triple-A. I doubt he’ll ever be a prototypically powerful first baseman, but it seems to me like there’s a chance he could put up some numbers like Kevin Young did in the middle of his career (I’m thinking ~120 OPS+, not necessarily 25+ home runs, and that’s probably best-case scenario). Of course, it’s also possible that he could start striking out more against higher-quality pitching and not be a useful hitter at all in the Majors. 

Strangely enough, the person I can best find to compare him with is Nick Evans, who is of course in camp with the Pirates. Hague is actually a few months older than Hague, though Evans was a high school draftee by the Mets that was in the big leagues by the time he was 22. It’s not easy to compare their minor league numbers because Evans was much younger as he moved through the Mets’ system, but in general in his early career he showed fairly low strikeout totals, a below average (but not quite Josh Harrisonian) walk rate, and decent but unspectacular pop. His reputation, like Hague’s, was first built on his glove and his power has evolved a bit as he’s aged. 

I’m not really sure who I would prefer between Evans and Hague in the last bench spot, to be honest. Hague is homegrown and since we already have an idea of what Evans is capable of in the big leagues, I’d kind of like to see Hague, but to be honest I think they’d be about the same in what’s probably going to be a limited role in spelling Garrett Jones against lefties and providing a capably-gloved first baseman late in games for double switching purposes. I’d certainly prefer both of them to Jake Fox, who I think is pretty definitively not a big leaguer at this point, and I think this would be a good chance to ease Hague into a big league role to see what he’s capable of, but I think a similar argument could be made for putting Evans into the same role. Evans has a career .849 OPS against lefties in the Majors, which means he might be a stronger bench option than Hague. Still, keeping Hague in Triple-A at the age of 26 won’t accomplish much, either. I’m not convinced he’ll be that good of a big leaguer, but I do think his performance to this point means that he deserves some kind of shot in the big leagues, even if it’s just a Steve-Pearce type shot.