Billy licked his lips, thought a while, inquired at last: “Why me?”
“That is a very Earthling question to ask, Mr. Pilgrim. Why you? Why us for that matter? Why anything? Because this moment simply is. Have you ever seen bugs trapped in amber?”
“Yes.” Billy, in fact, had a paperweight in his office which was a blob of polished amber with three ladybugs embedded in it.
“Well, here we are, Mr. Pilgrim, trapped in the amber of this moment. There is no why.”
Kurt Vonnegut, Slaugherhouse Five
When the Pirates fell apart at the end of the 2011 season, I took it way harder than just about anything that had happened to the team over the lifespan of this blog (April 11, 2005-present). It kind of confused me; I never really expected the team to compete for a playoff spot, even when they stuck in contention deep into July. There was a lot of smoke and a ton of mirrors but I could never really see the substance. Even though I tried to enjoy every moment for what it was (remember last year’s mantra: build a wall around it), I fully expected the other shoe to drop.
Then the shoe crushed me. Why did it crush me? I couldn’t figure it out for a long time. As this new season approaches, it’s finally started to make sense to me. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. For a couple of years worth of seasons previews I’ve been saying something along the lines of, “The Pirates won’t finish .500 this year, but if things go right, we’ll know how it’s going to happen in the future.” That was always nominally true in April, but it never came to pass. Things didn’t go perfectly for the Pirates last year, but enough happened between their run to the top of the division, in the minor league system, and in the draft, that it’s finally coming together. It’s all happening. The Pittsburgh Pirates are not going to be bad forever.
The problem is that it’s just not here yet. It’s not time. The Pirates are moving in the right direction and things are slowly falling into place and they’re just not there yet. When I think about the Pirates right now, I feel like a four-year old on December 10th. You keep telling me Christmas is coming but it’s never here and it’s taking foreeeeeeeeeeeeeever! I know that I’m the guy that’s been preaching patience for literally years now, but now that the Pirates are so close to breaking out of their slump I feel like it can’t get here soon enough. Suddenly, I’m Veruca Salt.
So here’s the truth: the 2012 Pirates are probably not going to contend for anything except for fourth place. They’re probably not going to finish .500, which means that we Pirate fans are going to be subjected to an unfathomable 20th consecutive losing season. I will say that I make this prediction every single year and I feel less certain of it this year than any year in the past, but despite the added talent to the Pirates’ roster this year I just have too many questions about this particular team to get my hopes up quite yet.
There are too many places for things to go wrong this year. I’m not sold on Alex Presley as an every day player. I’m pretty sure PNC will swallow Barmes and Barajas whole. Neil Walker’s second half swoon in 2011 concerns me, whether it’s related this back problems or not. I don’t know if Jose Tabata will ever hit well enough to be a corner outfielder. I’m worried that Erik Bedard is too fragile and AJ Burnett is too old to make a difference. For over a year now, watching Pedro Alvarez makes me wonder if hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do on the face of the planet. I still can’t figure out why Jeff Karstens was so good last year and that makes me nervous. The amount of time that Charlie Morton spent sidelined with his hip injury this winter is concerning. James McDonald’s struggles last year aren’t necessarily things you grow out of.
That being said, there’s a lot less squinting to do with this team to see something that resembles a good baseball team. We know what Andrew McCutchen is capable of and I think he’s going to be ever better in 2012. We’ve seen Walker and Tabata and Alvarez all have big league success and they’re young enough to find it again. Erik Bedard and AJ Burnett make the pitching staff different than last year’s staff in a very good way. Charlie Morton and James McDonald are imperfect, sure, but they’re also talented. For every Pirate team of the last 20 years, it’s been possible to identify 100 things that could go wrong before the season started. This team has the rarer feature that it’s also possible to identify a lot of things that could go right for them.
At least for now, though, we’re probably better served as Pirate fans to view this team with one eye towards the future rather than thinking about what could happen if everything goes right. You know the drill because you’ve been here before. Who’s carrying the team? Are they winning games because of young players, or because of the old ones who won’t be here in two years when things really start to come together? Are the good things that are happening sustainable or flashes in the pan?
It’s always easy to be excited on Opening Day and it’ll be easy to get frustrated if and when this season takes the turn that we’re all expecting, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be worth watching. Andrew McCutchen himself is turning into a must-see player and at the season’s high points last year, seeing him lead the team to wins in concert with Walker and Tabata, on the occasions that they were playing well, and Morton and McDonald, you could see the seeds for something bigger being planted. If everything goes according to plan, that’s what we’re looking for in 2012. We’re watching for the genesis of something that will finally culminate in a good Pirate team. The puzzle is already being assembled. If it looks better when this season ends, then it was a good season.
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