I have, at various points this year, come up with a number of potential explanations as to why Francisco Liriano hasn’t been quite as good in 2013 as he was in 2014. In the early part of the season, I thought that maybe it was because he was throwing his changeup a bit too regularly. When he came back from the disabled list in July, I was convinced along with everyone else that the problem was his slider velocity and that the difference between Good Liriano and Bad Liriano is the difference between an 88-90 mph slider (which he had last year) and an 86 mph (which is what we see this year).
Liriano’s last two starts have been fantastic, even when adjusted for the Cubs and Phillies. He’s struck out 21 hitters in 14 innings against just four walks and seven hits allowed. He’s allowed zero runs, earned or otherwise. His slider in those two starts has averaged about 85 mph, and he’s thrown his changeup about 22% of the time, which is in line with last year. In fact, if you check FanGraphs, Liriano’s changeup is the one pitch that’s been better this year than it was last year. If we head over to Brooks Baseball, that’s easy to visualize. Last year, Liriano’s nasty slider was consistently his best swing-and-miss pitch, but this year the slider hasn’t been quite as nasty and it’s shared the limelight with the changeup occasionally.
Anyway, I’m not sure that Liriano’s changeup is all that different from last year in terms of movement, but he’s done something with it to increase swings and misses, which means he’s either changing his sequencing or his command of the pitch has improved. Given that I think that his struggles away from PNC Park last year were mostly due to his platoon split (PNC has a habit of suppressing right-handed hitting, despite the impression that the Pirate lineup might give you), it makes sense that he’d work on his changeup over everything else.
All of this is my long way of saying that even in these last two starts, Liriano hasn’t been the same pitcher that he was in 2013, but that that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He’s been excellent since his return from the disabled list besides a few bouts with control problems (73 IP in 12 starts, 84 strikeouts, 31 walks, 5 HR, 2.47 ERA), and right now he seems like the Pirates’ best bet in a Wild Card Game, should they play in it. I’m curious to see how he looks tonight, since I feel like he’s improving but it’s hard to tell based on his recent competition. This Red Sox lineup is no great shakes, but they’re not quite the Phillies or Cubs, either.
Anyway, Jordy Mercer is still out with his back trouble. Clay Buchholz starts for the Sox, and not only has he been bad this year but his starts tend to be interminable. Rusney Castillo is making his big league debut less than a month after the Red Sox signed him to a $70+ million deal. I actually saw Castillo in Durham last Friday, as he singled home the game-tying/series-saving run in Game 4 of the Governor’s Cup Final for Pawtuckett with two outs and two strikes in the top of the ninth.
First pitch tonight is at 7:05.
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