After losing three straight games and posting historically bad defensive statistics, the Cincinnati Bearcats have gotten back on track with three straight wins against AAC opponents.
But while the three wins are impressive considering they have been without a healthy Gunner Kiel at quarterback, their top two running backs and a couple offensive linemen, is this team really improving from the one that took beat-downs from Ohio State, Memphis and Miami (Fla.)?
In that stretch against the Buckeyes, Tigers and Hurricanes, Cincinnati’s defense allowed 647 yards of total offense and 48.7 points per game. To break those numbers down more for that stretch, the Bearcats allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.7 percent of their passes and throw for 309 yards per game, while also giving up an average of 338 yards on the ground. UC also only forced two turnovers in those three games.
Having seen those numbers before doesn’t make them any more believable.
During the three-game winning streak against SMU, USF and Tulane, the Bearcats’ D only gave up 312.3 yards and 11.3 points per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61.1 percent of their attempts for just 207.3 yards per game, and the ‘Cats only gave up 105 rushing yards per game. Turnovers were also a big part of the story in these wins as Cincinnati was able to force nine of them against the Mustangs, Bulls and Green Wave.
That is a big-time improvement in numbers for what looked to be one of the worst defenses in the country when the Bearcats were sitting at 2-3 and seemingly in shock by how incapable they were to stop anyone. But did a light really flip on for the defense, or is something else at work in this apparent turnaround?
This stat probably answers that question: Ohio State, Memphis and Miami (Fla.) have a combined winning percentage of .720, while SMU, USF and Tulane combine for one of .208.
Need more convincing numbers? Well, the Mustangs, Bulls and Green Wave all rank outside the Top 100 in the FBS in both total offensive yards and scoring.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoMU0chv7T0?list=UU0y5liiwMlVZRPpHANy5ROA]So what does this all really mean? Basically, the Bearcats are just about who everyone thought they would be. They weren’t expected to beat Ohio State or Miami (Fla.) going into the season, it was just surprising how they lost those games. People thought Memphis would be improved, but I don’t think anyone thought it could possibly contend for the AAC title, and it dominated Cincinnati in that game on offense and defense.
But that’s really the one blip on the radar for the Bearcats as far as wins and losses go. They were dubbed the preseason favorite to win the AAC, and that is still possible as they sit at 5-3 (3-1), tied with Memphis, ECU, Houston and UCF at a crowded top of the league.
Cincinnati has a bye this week, which is music to Tommy Tuberville’s ears and Gunner Kiel’s ribs. After that, the Bearcats will host ECU for a Thursday night clash in what has long been thought of as the most critical game of their season.
The following two games, UC will hit the road in what looked like favorable match-ups at the beginning of the year against UConn and Temple, but UCF just lost to the Huskies and ECU to the Owls this weekend. The ‘Cats will then finish up their 2014 season at home against a surging Houston team, winners of three straight.
The road may be tougher than originally thought, but with a defense that looks more apt for play within the AAC and hopefully the return of Kiel and a few other key players, the Bearcats should still have a conference championship on their minds. Next week’s game with the Pirates should be the perfect barometer for the 2014 Cincinnati Bearcats.
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