Although I tried my darndest to try on a new moniker for the past nine months, the sad reality is that the shoe just didn’t fit.
And so I return to the name that made me what little of a man I have grown up to be…. In other words, BRINKHATER is back!
So, now that Brinkhater is back again in full-force, here is my once again stellar 2007 season preview:
As those four (4) of you who have kept up with this Blog over the past year know well by now, the staff of the WSU Blog have not been optimistic about this upcoming season.
And, despite the occasional quasi-blog-blast that suggest that I, Sir Brinkhater, are the doom and gloom machine (or even worse a Husky-lover of all things), it should be known last year was the first year in the current decade that I predicted us to have less than 9 wins.
(By the way, I nailed last year’s 6-6 season on the head if anyone is still interested).
But before anyone jumps off the ship before the season even starts, you should all know that the last time that I picked the Cougs to have a losing season was in 2001. I picked that year’s team to go 2-9. Our final record was a gaudy 10-2.
Nuff said.
So, I am hoping and praying that this year will be the year that shows you, once and for all, that I am the true blazing, know-nothing-bout-sports idiot that you all have wanted me to be.
And believe me when I tell you that nothing, and I mean NOTHING, would make me happier than to be proven, dead, dead wrong about this upcoming debacle that will be painfully known as the 2007 Cougar Football Season.
Now, onto the preview:
Since this season is truly, the season on the Brink, let me be clear:
IF THE COUGS GO 6-6 THIS YEAR, IT WILL BE BECAUSE ALEX BRINK PLAYS LIKE AN ALL-AMERICAN.
No ifs ands or buts about it. If we are even to sniff mediocrity this year, let alone a bowl game, Alex will have to show that he’s got “it” and then some.
Of course, I don’t think that he has “it,” unless “it” is something that has to do with football’s version of the clap. But trust me, as bad as he is, Alex is not the point of concern anymore.
What is relevant, however, is that this year’s schedule sets up beautifully for a bunch of interesting twists, turns, and subplots (kinda like putting your junk in a vice). For me, the key question of the season is “What is our record following our October game @ Belotti’s Babies?”
The answer to that question is crucial because following that game, we have a bye week, which, as I will suggest later, will prove to be a major cross-roads for the Cougar program.
So, in order to keep this preview under 7,000 words, here are the main themes and assumptions that I am taking into this year:
1) Bill Doba’s return to the defensive side of the ball is going to yield dividends. And I’m talkin’ BIG TIME Dividends. All things being equal, I think that by the end of this season, we will see that a BIG reason why Doba’s tenure will end horribly is because Leaping Rob Akey was a DISASTER at Defensive Coordinator. Yes, as much as I blame Alex Brink for a part of the demise of our beloved program, I think Akey takes a bigger piece of that cake. Our defense WILL improve over last year—which will leave us wondering “wha-happenned?” the last three years?
2) The first two games of the year will show whether or not anything has changed in the world of Alex Brink and the Cougar offense. Yes, I know that Alex played SUPER against Oregon and UCLA last year. But outside of those performances as well as a gutty job against SC (although the gimme 2pt conversion that he blew to Boyd cost us the game), our offense really struggled to score for much of last year. As a result, a big stat to look for early is our yards after catch. By the end of last year, we were consistently throwing 3 yard outs for 3.5 yard gains. High completion percentage, low turnover ratio, but very ineffective. If this team has ANY chance of competing, it is going to have to score 35+ a game. To do that, we must obviously improve red zone efficiency and have a much larger yard-after-catch average. As Cougar diehards know, we have made our Bread and Butter over the years turning 3 yard hitches into 25 yard gains.
3) San Diego State is a HUGE game for us. Lots of returning starters for them on offense and we will be coming one week off a probable drubbing against some really big boys in the heat and humidity of the Midwest (Let’s hope we catch a break in the weather like we did against Auburn last year). If we enter battered and lose a close one in that contest, we will need to have 5 conference wins to make 6-6. That’s a real, real tall order when you take a look at how the schedule shakes out—especially with this being a 4-5 year for us (home-road split).
4) The next set of swing games are our games against the two Arizona schools. If we have ANY shot at a positive season, we MUST at least split those two games. That said, we never play well against Arizona in Tuscon, and the Arizona State game is too early for the Devils to get the type of yips that they often get playing in Pullman in late October or November. Simply put, I don’t like our chances in any one of those games.
5) For the past three years, the strength of our defense has been our Defensive Tackles. Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to keep them healthy for even Fall practice. Now, entering the season with Johnson and Ahmu as real question marks, our D line is in real trouble. With our Defensive Ends suspect at least on one side, and with a questionable secondary, injuries to our Defensive Tackles will prove fatal once again. As a consequence, sssssoo much of this season will depend on the health of Ropati who has not been able to stay healthy to this point. NOT a good sign.
6) Chris Ivory has been given all the buzz in the world that he is the next big thing. Tardy looked like he was going to be a really nice back for much the year last year. IF Ivory can emerge early, then we might have the 1-2 punch to take some pressure off of Alex and the Offensive line’s pass protection. If that happens, we might really be in the game at Wisconsin. If he can’t, then we’re in real big trouble from that game forward, since I don’t think that Tardy is durable or bruising enough to carry a consistent load in the 1 back.
So, those are the main themes and issues to look for. Now, I present you with three scenarios for how this season will play out:
Scenario #1: Brink and the Gang Turn the Corner
If Alex Brink comes out strong and shows that he actually deserves to have been a four year starter in this program, then this season could quickly become a surprise story. We’ll see if this scenario plays out early it the season in both the Wisconsin and San Diego State games. Simply put, if this team comes out and puts 4 touchdowns on the board against Wisconsin and puts up a 40 spot on San Diego State, then we will have the type of firepower to make this season interesting. Even more to the point, the chance of us winning a 45-42 type game against UA or ASU becomes possible. And, if that’s the case, winning at what will be a MESS of an Oregon team will also be a possibility.
If all that plays out and we enter the Bye Week at 3-4, 4-3, or better then this team will win 6 to 8 games. Again, this scenario will be because Alex Brink kicks it up four notches to become a real All-Conference type performer and the defensive line will stay healthy. Again, I suspect that the defense will be MUCH improved by season’s end.
Scenario #2: Brink Tanks and the Good Ship Cougar Goes Down With Him
If Alex comes out and plays like the Alex of old—good numbers in every place put the win column—and the D performs as expected (not good) then we will be 2-5 or 1-6 at the Bye Week. In such a scenario, the Cougar program will be at a crossroads heading into the bye-week. At this point, my sense is that Doba will announce his retirement upon year’s end. This announcement will then take the program in one of two directions.
The first direction is that Doba decides at that point to stick with Alex Brink since he will at that point be on the verge of breaking all school records. This decision, in my view, will cause the kids to virtually tank the rest of the year. We lose a heartbreaker to UCLA, beat Stanford, and then get blown out in the next two. In this scenario, we end the year 3-9.
Scenario #3: Brink Tanks and The Good Ship Cougar Build for 2008
The second direction that Doba takes after the announcement of his resignation is to build for 2008 with the thought that he will be leaving the Cougar Cupboard in really, really good shape for the 2008 season. In this scenario, Rogers takes the helm for the UCLA game and we lose both that game as well as @ CAL. However, we return to the game at Stanford and get some confidence. That confidence, combined with an improved defense, and a motivated group to send Doba out well, wins out. That ends our year at a 5-7, Doba gets carried off the field after winning his Finale in Husky Stadium, and the program will set us up for a top 3 finish in 2008. With a new coach in tow, the future again will look bright for the Cougar faithful.
End Analysis:
When you start the season with questions about your secondary and offensive line, and when your head coach says that IF things come together you can be “competitive” in the conference, well, that is really not a good sign. As many of you know, I am a HUGE Doba fan. But, as with many of us, Doba’s greatest strength has been his greatest and most critical weakness: the man has been far too loyal.
In the end, his loyalty will cost us dearly this season. We will be brutal headed into the bye-week, he will announce his resignation at year’s end, and he will stick with Alex Brink—who once again will show that he will NEVER, EVER get hurt.
And it will be brutal.
Every rational bone in my body says that this is a 3-9 team with 6-6 potential (last year it was a 6-6 team with 9-3 potential). But judging by previous Cougar teams, and judging by our continued ability to play hard even when losing, I think we will scrape out one more win somewhere along the way.
In the end, we will finish: 4-8 (2-7) in Conference. A brutal end to a brutal era that really should not have ended this way.
In the end, we’ll all look back at Akey and Alex being the culprits that took us down the drain. And of course, all of that will have been driven by Doba’s overly fierce allegiance to his players and coaches.
Hope I’m wrong, but I know I won’t be.
Conference Predictions will come in two weeks.
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