BIG GAME!!

Hello Followers. Hope your new year has gotten off to a great start!

Tonight, our young lads face the first “must win” game of 2010. Want to know why I think that this game tonight carries such importance?

Then read on.

Followers, after watching two weeks of hoops, there appear to be four teams in the Pac-10 that can win the conference. Those teams are: CAL, WSU, ASU, and Oregon. Obviously, USC can’t win it because they are ineligible. Washington can’t win it because, after this weekend, they’ll have at least four losses (they’re going to lose to CAL). Moreover, when you factor in that they still have a trip to LA plus a 4-5 second half home-road split (and they can’t win on the road), you know they are done.

WSU, ASU, and Oregon all have great upsides for any given stretch of the season. But each also carries enough vulnerability to get beat a few times by lesser opponents, especially on the road.

For that reason, CAL, with its senior leadership, experience, and supreme guard play, now are the overwhelming favorites to win the conference. And so, if you want to circle the BEST opportunity for securing a “quality win” the rest of the way, CAL is the team we have to beat.

Moreover, when you take a look at our schedule the rest of the way, it becomes easy to see that even securing an 11-7 record is a stretch without a win tonight.

For instance, if we lose tonight, then in order to get a 5-4 first half, we’ll have to win three of the next four (and then go 6-3 in the 2nd half). And frankly, I think that winning 2 of 3 @USC, @Pauley, and @ Hec Ed is a REAL tall order under any circumstance. Conversely, win tonight and Saturday, we only need to win ONE of the NEXT three. And, we would have already bagged our first REAL big win of the season.

The question is, how in the hell can we beat CAL?

Keys to the Game:

1) Belief. While CAL sure is good, a good case can be made that they are not as good as Gonzaga. To be sure, the Zags have no one like Randall, but they also don’t have a post presence that is nearly as damaging either. In short, if we play well, we’ll win the game at home. So, the focus has to be to believe that what we have is good enough to win. If we extend beyond that, they’ll blow us out, even at home.

2) The Four X men. Sure the stars are going to matter tonight (their three guards and our Mr. Thompson). But for us, the X factors are going to matter more. For them, Boykin represents a real problem for us as I think he has the potential to kill us from 8-10 feet. For us, Nick, Thames, and Watson are just huge. For Nick, we need him to score at the same time that he avoids the stupid TO’s that sometimes kill us late in games. For Xavier, we need him to put in 8-10 solid points off the bench. And for Watson, we need him to log quality minutes tonight both to spell Casto as well as to play with him. Simply put, I can’t imagine us winning tonight without Watson spending lots of time on Boykin.

3) Reggie Moore. How do you stop Randle? Get him in foul trouble. Tonight, you are going to see Moore go right at Jerome early. But, as he does that, two things need to happen: (a) Moore needs to make his free-throws; and/or (b) He needs to convert. If we get Randle on his heels on the defensive end throughout the game, we win.

4) Take the Ball to the Rack and Get Back. CAL is going to try to suck us into the same type of jumper fest we saw last week at ASU. If we do that, and if we miss, get ready for long-rebounds and wide open transition baskets for them (Also, when Moore penetrates–Klay has got to get back and NOT foul in transition). Keep the game around the basket and we’ll be right there. IF we can make our free throws.

5) The 5-10 minute mark. If I was a betting man, I would be that this is a five point game either way with 10 minutes left in this game. If we’re going to win it, we’re going to have to go at least +2 during that stretch. So far this season, against good teams, we’re about -7. That has to improve tonight. It has to.

In the end, my sense is that youth is once again going to bite us.

Cougs lose 85-71 setting up Saturday’s game as a real tipping point for our fortunes the rest of the way.

Enjoy the game on the radio. And go Cougs!!!