However, not everyone thinks this was all that great an idea. And you can include former Coug A.D. Jim Sterk among those who isn’t exactly enamored with the new conference, especially without the super-sized version that would have included the Big 12 south. Per the latest from the San Diego Tribune:
The interesting call is Colorado. It’s doubtful the Pac-10 would have gone after Colorado so quickly if not convinced the others would follow like lemmings. In getting the Buffs and Utes, the Pac-10 didn’t come close to what it expected. The Big 12 did better than hold serve.
“I’m not so sure they would have taken Colorado,” Sterk says. “I know in the past Colorado hasn’t been enough.
It’s really hard to know for sure, but there have been a lot of strong rumors over the years that Colorado had been on the radar. Maybe not just as the lone new member of the conference, but Larry Scott has mentioned that they have been looking at Colorado for some time. It was even mentioned in the press conference when Colorado was announced as the newest member.
Yet Sterk still believes that the latest additions won’t be that big of a deal:
“I was on the TV committee the last go-round, six or seven years ago, and I asked an executive with ESPN if the Pac-10 should expand. He said, ‘Without Texas, it isn’t worth it.’ The Pac-10 currently has 19 percent of the marketplace. Adding those two schools, it possibly will be at 20 (percent) to 21 percent. That’s not big enough to drive the needle.”
You know, that was likely the truth six or seven years ago. But is it only about marketplace percentage when you try to put value on a TV deal? Or will there be other things in play?
Well, the Deseret News just did a story that examines how, exactly, the new Pac-12 TV deal will come together and what elements are in play in determining the value of said contract.
“Colorado and Utah don’t add that much,” said A.J. Maestas, president of Chicago-based Navigate Marketing, which helps schools assess their market value. “At the end of the day, it’s about households, ratings, the total market that you reach. Although they’re great markets, because there are some real strong markets in the Pac-10 like Los Angeles, you really don’t add to the total average market. A little bit, but not a ton.”
OK, so Sterk is definitely right on things like marketplace percentage. But that isn’t where the road to billions comes to an end. Not even close:
With the addition of CU and Utah, Navigate projects the Pac-10’s next TV deal should be worth about $14.5 million per member school. That’s nearly three times the Pac-10’s current deal and more than $5 million more than CU received last year from the Big 12.
Well, Ok, so if the marketplace percentage doesn’t move the needle, why are the projections of $14.5 million per school accurate?
Here’s why: It doesn’t account for the wild bargaining that will likely take place between competing networks. Much has changed in the past five years. The number of sports channels has multiplied. Most professional sports have their own TV network.
There is an ESPNU and an ESPN3. Comcast has merged with NBC-Universal. Conferences and schools offer bigger threats to start their own TV networks, as have the Big Ten and Mountain West, and as the Texas Longhorns plan to do.
AT&T and Verizon also have become cable providers. AT&T now reaches 20 million homes, and Verizon reaches 15 million. That’s a lot of money to advertisers, meaning that’s a lot of money to conferences offering the games.
That, and starting a football championship game, will likely overcome a Pac-10 fan base that’s less consumed than those in the Big 12, Southeastern Conference and Big Ten.
I don’t think a lot of this is pure “news” to many of you, but it really is amazing how much the NCAA football landscape has changed since Sterk was on that TV committee. There was no Big Ten network at the time, which is a now a cash cow for all Big Ten members. And the new, super-amazing SEC TV deal with CBS wasn’t in place yet. It’s a night-and-day difference where we currently sit compared to where we used to be. So there is no doubt that there is real hope here that the big TV dollars are coming.
Meanwhile, SI.com did a story last summer on the TV deals among the different conferences. For a quick eye-opener on a Monday morning, just take a look at how much money is out there right now among the models for TV contracts, the SEC and Big Ten, and compare it to the Pac-10:
SEC
• ESPN: 15 years, $2.25 billion
• CBS: 15 years, $825 million
(Both deals run through 2023-2024.)
Total: $3.075 BILLION
Big Ten
• Big Ten Network: 25 years, $2.8 billion* through 2031-32 *projected revenue per SI.com
• ABC/ESPN: 10 years, $1 billion through 2016
• CBS: 10 years, $20 million for basketball through 2018-19
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