Sutra’s Season Preview – A New Hope (or Nope??)

Before we get to our Cougar pleasantries, I would like first to echo the sentiments of SeanHawk last week regarding our dear friend, Sir Vincent Grippi.  As we know, Sir Vincent has had a really tough go as of late.  First, he suffered a myriad of health problems in the late spring and summer.  Now, he has hit a rough spot with his father’s health.

On top of that, as noted in a Sportslink post two weeks back, Vince let us all know that it was important for his page views to increase.  The subtext of that message:  The welfare of that site, his job, or the paper, may be in jeopardy.

So, with that in mind, can we all make a commitment to do what we can to make sure that Sportslink in general, and Vince, in particular, doesn’t follow the path of the now defunct Seattle PI?

As for me, I pledge to go ahead and hit his articles AT LEAST five times a day.  And, I hope that you all will do the same.  Vince is the best source for all things Cougar out there.  Let’s make sure that his service to Cougar Nation continues.

Now, read on as we move on to Cougar Football……

Followers, for the past two plus weeks plus, I have been sitting at my computer pressing the “refresh” button on my browser every five minutes; hoping desperately to find some new practice report somewhere, anywhere, everywhere on the “internets.”  Simply put, I can’t remember a fall camp that has been more filled with both anticipation and ambiguity.

So, as I have tried to put my cosmic finger on our fortunes this year, I have run up time and time again against a tremendous lack of clarity.  I mean, what can any of us gather from what we have seen?  Clearly, we’re seeing a HUGE increase in size, speed, and overall talent. But, ultimately, we still really don’t know how that improvement should be measured.  I mean, should we now think that we’re competitive relative to other teams with young players in the conference?   Are we good enough to actually play with teams now, or do we simply have the talent that will allow us to compete in (gulp) the seasons to come????

Therefore, instead of trying to predict specifics about this group, I have tried to take a more global approach.  Namely:  Is there any type of formula, however loose, that might help us set a reasonable expectation for what this group can and/or should accomplish in terms of wins and losses?

Unfortunately, I am simply not dialed in enough into the Cosmos to figure out a specific, testable formula. However, I have come up with a few guiding principles which help to frame what I think are some reasonable parameters from which we can measure progress. (And yes, in concert with my longstanding reputation, most of these will be stating the obvious…)

Key “Determining” Factors:

When you look at teams that are ranked in the top 10—e.g. your pre-season National Title contenders—it is easy to see what they all have in common.  In short, the reason why they are ranked so high is not only because they are talented, but because the prognosticators view their schedules as “highly favorable.”  What this means in practical, and obvious terms, is that when people take an ostensibly unbiased look at a talented team’s schedule, they tend to rank that team highly when they think said team “should” win the vast majority, if not all, of their games (think Boise State here.  Every publication says the same thing: IF they can get past Virginia Tech and Oregon State, they’ll be in the national championship game because they will be EXPECTED to win the rest.)

Meanwhile, teams that are ranked 11-25 in the pre-season also tend to have a similar profile regarding schedule favor-ability.  They have several games on their schedule that they “should win”, a few games that should be “contested”, and maybe, in some cases, a few games that are “winnable” — e.g. games that a team could win if everything goes right.  Of course, these teams have one or less games on their schedule that are games where, all else equal, they really have no shot.

So, when you look at a team like, say, Oregon State, you have a host of games that, arguably, they should win.  At first glance, you have to figure they’ll beat Louisville, Arizona State, some team named Washington State, UCLA, and CAL.  Then you have their contested games: USC, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Stanford.  And then, you have their “winnable” games against Boise State and TCU.

Now, to be sure, the Beavs COULD find themselves losing to a team that they SHOULD beat.  And, clearly, you can take issue with whether or not the above games are appropriately categorized.

But the main point here is that when you look at the Beavs—a team that most are considering to be a top 3 Pac-10 team and top 25 type team, there are ZERO games on the schedule that would fall into the “when hell freezes over” category. And, as such, a reasonable expectation for them is that they will win the games they should win, win the vast majority of their “contested games” or “toss-ups on any given week”, and receive an invite to an upper-tier bowl as a consequence.

Now, let’s take a look at our main rivals, the Defeateds of the University of Washington.  In the “should win” category, they have (cough!) Washington State, Syracuse, Arizona State, CAL, and UCLA.  In the “contested” category, they have USC, Oregon State (it’s at home), Nebraska, BYU, Stanford, and Arizona. And, then you have Oregon.  Is that game winnable?  Sure.  Will they?  No fricking way.

So, again, you look at the schedule.  To an outsider, they appear to have five games relatively in the bag, 6 that appear to be hotly contested, and one that looks like a big fat, stinkin’ NOPE!  But all in all, the expectation is there for them to be right in every single game.  And that’s what you need to break through to a bowl game.

Now, for me, what separates Oregon State from Washington’s fortunes for this year is history.  Namely, even if the Beavs and the Defeateds had the same number of teams in each category, one would think that the Beavs would have a better chance of winning their “competitive games” than the Dawgs, simply because they have much more experience doing so.  So, when I look at the Dawgs’ schedule, I figure that, give or take a game, they’ll pull off their “shouldas” and win about half of their “couldas.”  And of course, they’ll lose their “winnable”/“not until hell freezes over” game against the Quack.  

Thus, in my math, I see the Dawgs winning between 7 to 8 games this year with 9 being the upside.

So, where our Cougs are concerned, well, when you look at our last decent season (2007), we won five games.  We won the two “shouldas” on our schedule (San Diego State and Idaho) and three of our seven games that we thought we would be contested at the beginning of the season (Washington, Stanford, & UCLA).  So, with that in mind, you have my general formula. In order to sniff bowl eligibility, you really have to in at least 75% of your games.

Now, can we reach that clip this year?   Lets take a look at how our schedule stacks up with that general criteria in mind:

Game1 – @Clay Bennett State. 

Contested. New offensive scheme, new QB, lots of newbies all around for the Cowgirls.  To be sure, their D is going to be fast, young, and  aggressive, but as we will see with our own lads, that can cut both ways.  As I see it, a couple of big plays early by us will send them on their heels in front of a very antsy crowd.  Granted, I am not liking my feeling about the eventual outcome of this one, but I think this game is going to be awfully, awfully close.

Game 2 –  Montana State. 

Should win. Will win. Nuff said.

Game3 – @SMU. 

Contested. We all know it’s going to be hot. And, we all know that SMU turned into a complete juggernaut toward the end of last year.  But, their D is still nothing to write home about, and we now have enough fast guys to stay with them for 60 minutes.  Plus, we know we can beat these guys.   And that will mean a lot as guys get tired.

Game 4 – USC.

Winnable. Most overrated pre-season team in America comes to Pullman without having been tested yet.  One has to wonder what will happen when a CRAZY September crowd helps the Cougs go up 14-3 in the second quarter.  This game is going to be close, but the overall talent and experience differential makes it wise to take it out of the contested column.  But it will be….bank on it.

Game 5 – @UCLA.

Winnable.  This is a game that I don’t like at all.  We don’t beat Tricky Ricky, and each year we have looked at this game favorably only to watch us get blasted.  Our only hope in this one is for Texas to make the Bruins the Walking Wounded the week we head down south.  Can we win this one? Sure.  But since I am pretty sure we’re going to play well against SC, this one feels like the “two steps back” that follows one giant step forward.

Game 6 – Oregon. 

When Hell Freezes Over.  Fast and furious D makes this one a nightmare. Consider this one a victory if Tuel and our O-Line survive unscathed.  This one is going to be brutal.  And it’s homecoming.  Yikes!

Game 7 – Arizona. 

Winnable. This one is going to really test our mettle.  Arizona has too much offense and if our O can’t sustain any drives, this one could be the one that starts an irreversible slide for our young crew.  On the flipside, a few turnovers here and there and a healthy Cougar team could pull off an upset if EVERYTHING goes right.

Game 8 – @ Stanford. 

When Hell Freezes Over.   At first glance, one might think that we might be able to hang around with Stanford.   But, the way the schedule sets up, I expect the Trees to be rolling at this time—just at the time that we are facing the music in a really tough way.  Simply put, we’re NOT going to win this game.

Game 9 – @Arizona State. 

Contested.  For me, this is the swing game of the year.  If ASU can’t find an O, this team will be deflated and we will be ready to take them down—even on the road.  But, if they find an O to go with that great team speed on defense, then we will be in for a long, long night.  And, if we fall hard, this one, like the UCLA game last year, will spell the end of our season.  However, I’m betting that the Sun Devils will be playing in the Shadows by then.

Game 10 – California. 

Contested.  Mediocre quarterback play combined with a team that tends to fade late is a nice opportunity for a young team to sneak one out in November.  Will we?  Don’t know.  But this one should go down to the wire.

Game 11 – @ Oregon State.

When Hell Freezes Over. We all know the drill by now.  The Beavs will start 1-2 and then roll until they meet the Quack.  We’ll be out of this game real, real early.

Finally, Game 12 – Washington. 

Contested.  For the Pups, this is a game they should win.  But, for us, this is a game we will be in and stay in.  To be sure, we’ve gotta hope that the cold will slow Jakey down a bit.   At the same time,  I think that we will have enough tempo on Offense by that time to keep him off the field at the same time that we force them to move the chains for a change.

So, when you look at our schedule, we have:

In short, outside of MSU, we should expect to be in about half of our games this year—not enough to get to five wins, I am afraid.  If I was a betting man—instead of a spiritual leader—I would expect us to win the ONE game that we should win, steal one of the games in the winnable column and then win one of the contested affairs. 

That’s three wins folks, and that’s still optimistic given how stinking far behind we’ve been from the rest of the Pac the past two years (and remember, YOUNG teams don’t usually win in the Pac-10).

Again, as I said in the spring, the most winnable stretch for us is the first quarter of the season. There is a real, real potential there to start 3-0.

But, until such time that we can view 9 games on our schedule as “contested”, then five or six wins is a pipedream—albeit one that JUST might be possible with a good performance in two weeks.

Lets stay healthy and GO COUGS!!!!