Hello Followers. Hope you’ve had a great week.
Well, amidst all the riff-raff surrounding Coach Wulff, I almost forgot that it is the start of basketball season this weekend!
Want to check out my two-cent takes regarding Cougar Basketball?
(as well as our picks for Saturday’s games!)
Then read on…..
Followers, it seems like such a long time ago that we were all lamenting how our 10-2 start last season turned into a 6-12 debacle in conference. I mean, there were SO MANY positives about what we saw last year—Klay’s early season dominance, Moore’s freshman-of-the-year type qualities, and Casto’s strength and workmanship—that is was almost too easy to figure that this would be the year that we’d get it right.
Well, now that “next year” is right at our doorstep, the question is “will we get it right?”
And truly, at the heart of this question is Mr. Ken Bone (heretofore forever known as “Kenny B”)
Now granted, Kenny B, hasn’t been around long enough to deserve any real “fire the coach” type stuff.
But, given the current state of the football program, I ask you:
What would Paul Wulff’s current situation look like had he inherited the football equivalents of Klay, Casto, and Reggie Moore as underclassmen?
What would the fan reaction be to Wulff if all of our last place finishes happened during years in which the Pac-10 was the WORST in its history (as the Pac-10 was last year in hoops)?
Cuz think about it, folks, BOTH OF THESE MEN, came to WSU as highly respected HEAD coaches. And, both came to WSU after having success in none other than the venerable, Big Sky conference!
So, for me, a BIG question facing this year revolves around what happens if things DON’T go well.
Will you give Kenny B get a free pass?
Okay, back to Hoops.
Followers, given that you can read some solid previews at the Seattle Times and the Spokesman about the upcoming season as well as some equally solid position previews over at Cougcenter, I will try to direct my preview to a couple of areas that I didn’t think were well covered there.
And, per usual, I’ll give you my five keys-as-questions:
1) Do we have an offense this year?
If you remember back to last year’s game @ USC, we witnessed a torrid Cougar comeback that led to victory. And, at that time, we were sitting pretty at 4-3 in the conference.
At the heart of that comeback was Reggie Moore—who used his relentless quickness and penetration to absolutely torch USC’s then revered defense.
Unfortunately, after that game, our offensive production slowed to a crawl. And a big reason for that change was because teams realized that they could not contain Moore’s dribble penetration, teams started to zone against us. And when they did, we showed that we had the WORST ZONE OFFENSE in the history of ever.
So, within the above question, is a HUGE key to our year. Have we learned how to successfully beat a zone? Have we learned that the way that you beat a zone is by passing the ball—not dribbling into spaces where the zone can extend and trap you?
Which brings me to question #2…
2) Will Marcus Capers be able to handle HIS offensive load?
While Marcus IS the best man-to-man defender on the team, Marcus also showed himself to be lethal at times from the baseline on offense. Unfortunately for him and us, Marcus also showed that his jump shot was, well, lethal—as in it didn’t kill other teams—it often KILLED US.
Frequently, against the Zone, Marcus was set up at the weak-side elbow. And because he couldn’t shoot (and because we didn’t pass the ball), our offense against the zone was pitifully bad.
So, for us to be effective this year, Marcus is going to have to be able to knock down a 16 footer after the ball swigs from elbow-to-elbow. Or, if Bone decides to have him play the point with Klay and Faisel on either wing, then Marcus is going to have to be able to knock a few down from the top of the key.
If he can do those things, we will be a very, very dangerous team come tournament time.
3) Will we have a Motum or a router?
One of the big bright spots of the end of the last season was Brock Motum’s play at the four spot. In addition to being a nice distributor, Motum also showed himself to be one of the best on the team at moving without the ball. In particular, his ability to run some modified pick and rolls with Klay represented a really nice element/wrinkle to our offense—particularly with Casto positioned weak-side on the offensive glass. In my view, the more Motum we see on the floor this year, the better.
4) Can we be anything but elementary without Watson?
While Faisel and our young Simon are key editions to this team, I am not sure that they can offset the loss of James Watson. If you remember, Watson was one of the few players that provided any kind of substitute for Casto. Now, with only Charlie and Bjorn Borg-ston coming off the bench at the 5 spot, we are dangerously thin underneath.
As a consequence, I think it is ridiculous to think that we’ll be playing man for any long stretch of time. Meaning, in order for us to spread the floor with our shooters, we’re going to have to rely on long rebounds as the primary way to get out in transition. I think you’ll also see us press a lot—assuming that the newcomers—particularly Faisel can get up to speed AND do so quickly.
And while such approach worked fine at PSU, I am not sure its gonna fly this year–even in a still weak Pac-10.
5) Will it be a December to remember?
While some of the national pundits are talking about a resurgence at Arizona and UCLA—not to mention that they think the Huskies will still be good—I am not convinced that the Pac-10 will be much better this year than last—at least relative to other conferences around the country.
While Washington looks like the real deal, they also have to deal with the MAJOR loss of both Pondexter and Elston Turner, Jr.—the latter of which played HUGE for them down the stretch.
So, while I expect the Huskies to win the conference, I also am thinking that they’ll struggle in their early games against more elite non-conference competition. When you add to that assumption that I think UCLA and Arizona will also struggle early, you have the recipe for the Pac-10 to have a really weak overall resume come tournament time.
Therefore, for me, our early season tilts against Kansas State and Gonzaga loom as HUGE for any chances that this team has to go to the tourney. In my view, we MUST win one of those games. And if that one win is against Kansas State, then I think we’ll have a good indication as to where this team is headed.
Final Prediction:
Honestly, I don’t know. For me, that two game stretch against KSU and Gonzaga is key. But, if Klay and Casto have improved as advertised, you’ve gotta think that the KSU game is one that a good team steals at home.
So, lets go with a 10-2 non-conference record, and a 10-8 conference mark. Which will put us squarely between the NCAA’s and the NIT.
And yes, that’s nearly 20 more wins than the football team!
And now, time for our Football Friday Picks:
Sutra:
WSU 24 OSU 23
USC 35 Arizona 34.
Oregon 52 CAL 13
Stanford 41 Arizona State 28
LucasCoug Sez:
Stanford at Arizona State:· Coming off a wild and wacky game late Saturday in Los Angeles, the Sun Devils return to Tempe to host the surging Cardinal. Last week the Trees manhandled the now Mildcats in Palo Alto, and should have no problem cruising in this one as long as they aren’t looking ahead to next week’s Big Game in Bezerkeley. Three games remain on their schedule, and three wins should put Stanford in a BCS Bowl Game. This should be an entertaining game offensively, Trees 45 – ASU 20.
Oregon at Cal:· Oregon leaves the hippy confines of Eugene, for the hippy confines of Bezerkeley. Let’s call this one the Pachouli Bowl, shall we? Brock Mansion looked absolutely awful when he had to throw the ball last weekend in Pullman. Actually, he didn’t have to throw the ball, but for some reason Jeff Tedford kept dialing up throwing plays. Did this perplex anybody besides me? When you can shove it down a teams throat to the tune of 200+ yards on the ground, why would you have your inexperienced QB throwing so much? I promise you a much bigger deal would have been made of that had the Cougs been able to capitalize offensively on the Mansion interceptions. Back to the task at hand. We all know Cal is a good team at home, going 4-0 and averaging more than 47 points per game. If they can challenge Oregon early like the Huskies did, and come out and be competitive in the second half, look for the Ducks biggest challenge of the year. No upset here though, Ducks 38 – Bears 24.
Arizona at USC:· Granted USC is playing only for pride in this one, I have a feeling that Arizona loses one more this year, and it won’t be to the Sun Devils. Not a ton of analysis on this one, but I am going to take the Trojans for the upset here, 34-20.
Washington State at Oregon State:· Do the Cougs come out fighting and scrapping in this one like they did last week or do they lay a goose egg like two weeks prior in Tempe? Oregon State clearly isn’t as good as they have been in year’s past, but need two more wins to become bowl eligible. With upcoming games against USC and Oregon at home, and Stanford on the road, the Beavs are in a spot they are unaccustomed to at this point of the season. I don’t think anybody saw them losing on the road last weekend in LA. I know I didn’t, and according to our Yahoo Pick Em data, only 11% of you saw that upset coming! The Cougs are still too banged up to make it happen, especially in a fired up Reser Stadium. I’ve been critical of the coaching decision to waste Andrew Furney’s redshirt, but I have a feeling his number will be called a lot this weekend. Oregon State 38 – Wazzu 23.
SEANHAWK SEZ:
What up Cougs? Well, it’s time for the Beavs, as the last game before a two-week rest. Will WSU lay it all on the line this week? Or will they get caught taking a look at the bye weeks that are just around the corner, and start it early by taking a knee in this one?
My feeling is that the Cougs will come out and play hard.· I think in some ways it will be similar to what we saw vs. Cal, in that the defense will play pretty well and might surprise Oregon State a little bit. But I don’t think it will hold up. Why? Because the offense is struggling MIGHTILY right now!
For multiple reasons – injuries to the line, the thinning of the wide receiver and running back positions – they just don’t have the horses to put anything together for four quarters. It’s not that we won’t see some decent plays here and there, or we won’t have any success whatsoever. We will. It’s just that I can’t envision this WSU team putting together four complete quarters of successful football right now. While Jeff Tuel is doing everything he can at QB to try and get it going, even now showing some success out of the read-option, it just isn’t happening right now.
Anyway, with the continued inability to maintain drives, the offense’s struggles will doom the defense. By the end of the third/early fourth quarter, the Beavs should start to run away with it as a young, thin defense starts to wear down. Quizz goes wild late, Katz plays effective football for most of the way, and in the end, I see an Oregon State victory, 31-16.
Now relax boys, and ice those bumps-n-bruises over the next couple of weeks. It’s been a rough ride, but the end is almost in sight!
Other games:
Stanford 34, ASU 17– Andrew Luck is the best QB in the west, and might play his way into the Heisman ceremony if he keeps this up. ASU is fighting for a bowl, but they’ll have to win two of their last three to get it done. This won’t be one of them. Remember, ASU has beaten just two BCS teams this year – Washington and Washington State. Luck will dominate, and ASU’s bowl hopes hit life support.
Oregon 48, Cal 21– I know, I know, people are wondering if this is where the Quacks stub their webbed feet. IF former Coug Bob Gregory were still in the house as the defensive coordinator, I would like the idea of the Cal 3-4 defense confusing Oregon. And if King Mediocre, Kevin Riley, were healthy at QB, I would give the Berkeley Bears a real shot to shock ’em here. But Gregory is in Boise, long gone from Berkeley. And Riley is done with the bad knee, and did ya SEE Mansion last week?? Yikes. After a tight game for the first quarter or so, the Ducks will run away and hide.
Arizona 35, USC 27– Arizona is sputtering and beaten up after last week’s big loss at Stanford, and it wasn’t a pretty performance in any way, shape or form. Both Arizona QB’s are licking their wounds, with Nick Foles and Matt Scott both fighting injuries. Foles should be able to play, but Scott has been ruled out. But with their Rose Bowl hopes flickering, and USC probably spent after their thriller over ASU, I believe AZ circles the wagons and rises up at home.
All for now. GO COUGS!
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