Hawaii or Bust

(Editor’s Note: As fate would have it, Sutra and Lucas Coug both decided to post a little something about basketball today–not knowing what the other was up to.  So, here is take #2 for today regarding our upcoming slate of hoops activities.)

Happy Tuesday to you followers! Hope you’re having a good week.

As for me, well, lets just say that the new Pu ram has turned out to be a bit chilly over the weekend (I’m talkin’ -10 with the wind chill).

So, with my visions of balmy beaches in mind, wanna know why I think that Hawaii is the key to our Cougars’ winter fortunes?

Then read on.

Followers, those of you who read my preseason Coug preview know that I was awfully kind to our ugly brothers to the West. And while I told you that I thought the Huskies represented the class of the Pac-10, I also told you to expect that they would take a while before they finally hit their stride. And unfortunately, I was right.

Indeed, Husky basketball is quickly becoming the basketball equivalent to Oregon State Football:

Start slow as molasses and then end with a bang.

And because I think that Washington will still wind up winning the Pac-10, their loss at Texas A&M last weekend was simply BRUTAL for the chances of any potential bubble team in the conference, including our beloved Cougs.

Because, after having three WONDERFUL chances for a non-conference win, not only for themselves, but for the conference, the Huskies have simply not delivered. And as result, if the tourney was today, Washington would probably command a whopping 9 seed in the Dance.

And again, that is NOT good for anyone else in what appears to be another year of the “Crap-10.”

On top of the UW’s inability to notch a marquee non-conference win, the Mildcats of Arizona also blew a great opportunity to notch one for the conference this past weekend. In fact, their opportunity was so blown, they got completely blown out by a BYU team that looks to me like a 5 seed to these cold, tired eyes.

So, with that all in mind, lets take a quick peek at how the conference has fared in Big Games.

Quality Wins:

As of this writing, we have 3.5. USC has the conference’s best win against #19 Texas. CAL had the best early showing of any Pac-10 team when they unseated then #20 Temple–who figures to fare well in the diminished A-10–as well as New Mexico.

And of course, our beloved Cougs CLOBBERED Gonzaga last week–which figures to eventually become an NCAA team–even if they look more like the 11 seed team of 07-08 than the 4 or 5 seed of the past few years.

Quality Losses:

UCLA played Kansas down to the wire in Lawrence at lost by 1 a few weeks back. That is the #1 quality loss in the conference to date. Oregon played Mizzou into OT a few weeks back which ain’t bad. And, of course, we played KSU down to the wire before falling by five. And, while the defeat of the defeateds to Kentucky and MSU are nice losses for a mid-level team in a strong conference, they do nothing for a conference that needed its front-runner to notch a big one against high level teams in other major/BCS conferences. Again, nice going LOSERS.

Blown Opportunities to Impress:

Besides Washington’s follies, Arizona State’s blow-out loss to Baylor didn’t help anyone in the conference, nor did their opening loss to New Mexico. And, while Montana certainly isn’t a push-over, it sure would have been nice for the Westwood Bunnies to show that the Pac-10 can at least beat the Kings of the Big Sky.

Meanwhile, the Berkeley bunnies had a nice chance to build off their early season wins against Temple and New Mexico, but got lit last week at home against Steve Fisher’s San Diego State Aztecs.

Get-Out-Of-Town Bad:

How about Oregon State? Nothing like announcing your return to competitiveness, Mr. Robinson, by getting lit by powerhouses like Seattle U and Texas Southern. Meanwhile, USC, which boasts one the conference’s only quality win got beat at home by the likes of Rider and Bradley. Can you say “OUCH!”

And Oregon, who might be the true surprise team on the conference got nipped at home by the always powerful (cough! cough!) San Jose Spartans.

In short, when you look at the conferences overall quality rating at the end of the year and wonder why the Pac-10 is ranked 6th or 7th, you’ll know the reason why.

Last Chance to Build the Body (of work):

So, as we look forward to the rest of the conference’s non-conference opponents, here are the key games of note. (And yes, UW, ASU, Oregon, and Oregon State have no quality n.c. games left)

UCLA-BYU (Dec 18)
USC @Kansas (Dec 18)
Stanford@Butler (Dec 18)
Arizona@NC State (Dec 19)
USC @ Tennessee_RockyTop (Dec 21)
Stanford@ Clay Bennett State (Dec 21)
CAL-Kansas (Dec 23)

Don’t know about you all, but for me only the UCLA-BYU and USC-Rocky Top match-ups look even semi-favorable for our conference brethren. Meaning, if you are looking for some sort of help for the NCAA tournament, you’ll be looking WAY into the future (as in next year).

So, if our Cougs wanna punch a ticket to the Big Dance, then there are three available paths:

1) Win the conference tournament.
2) Win the conference title.
3) Beat Mississippi State and Baylor in Hawaii.

And while our early season fortunes suggest that Options #1 and #2 are possibilities for this young group, I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

So, rest up Cougies, study for your finals, and avoid what could be a fatal let down next week @ Santa Clara.

Because if we want to be dancing in the Madness of March, the next three games appear to be MUST wins.

Thankfully, if our health cooperates, we have the pieces to do just that.

Enjoy the mid-week and GO COUGS!!!!!