Hello Followers. Hope you’re having a great week.
Well, after talking a near half season hiatus from blogging (has it really been that long since I predicted that we would lose to Baylor?), I am back in the saddle once again. Want to check out my view of the importance of this weekend (plus my remedy for what I think ails our hoopsters)?
Then, read on.
Followers, after we beat Baylor in Hawaii, I found myself thinking that this team had a really good chance at challenging for a Sweet 16 birth. And, even though I tried really hard to temper that enthusiasm, I just couldn’t. Over and over and over, I tried to keep myself in check by saying (to myself): “You thought this team looked like a Pac-10 bottom feeder against Santa Clara three days ago, so why in the world would this team make a big run in March?” And then I’d reply back to myself: “That performance was simply an abberation–a trap game. When this team is focused and healthy, look the F-out.”
And so, I continued my dream of March Madness through the first half of the Butler game. But, alas, as the second half reached the 10 minute mark, my Yuletide enthusiasm was over. Instead of looking like world beaters, this team looked to me to have serious, serious issues. And nothing that I’ve seen since that point has changed my mind that this season may go down as the most dissapointing one we’ve seen in a long, long time.
So fast forward to today. Since the Baylor game, we’re 3-4. To be sure, the Stanford game was a nice win–especially since it was in Maples. But, when you get beyond that, it seems important to note that our 3 wins have come against an Oregon State team that had a 250 pre-conference RPI, the worst Oregon team in recent memory, and a Stanford team that was good enough to lose to Bulter by about 30 points. In total, it seems pretty clear to this idiot that we’ve beaten NO ONE since before Christmas.
At the beginning of the year, I suggeested that 11-7 in conference would probably get us into the Dance. And I still think that. I also said that 12-6 would represent a shoe-in for an at large birth. And I still believe that too.
So, when you look at the last three games of the first half of the Pac-10 slate, the recipe for getting to 11-7 or better is pretty clear cut: WE MUST WIN THE NEXT TWO GAMES.
With a sweep of the Arizona schools this weekend, we will finish the first half of the season 5-4 in conference (and yes, we WILL lose to Washington). Then, in the second half of the Pac-10 slate, we head to the Oregon schools. That should be a sweep. From there, we get the Bay Area schools at home–that should also be a sweep. So, if we start the second half 4-0, then we’d “only” need to win @ Arizona State and then split at home against the LA schools to gain a 6-3 (or better) second half. When you add that second half record to a 5-4 first, you have an 11-7 conference mark. And that would be enough for the NCAA selection committee, methinks.
But, if we finish the first half 4-5, then we have to go 7-2 in the second half to get to 11 conference wins. That means that we’d have to sweep the LA schools at home to close the season, and potentially, have to beat either Arizona or Washington on the road (if we slip in any of the other games). While possible, I would bet my bottom dollar that we wouldn’t be able to do that. So, this weekend is absolutely, critical.
So, the next question is, “will this team gain a sweep this weekend?” And as of this writing, my answer is as follows: “NO!”
Because quite frankly, everything that I liked about this year’s team following the Zag win has been taken away by Reggie Moore’s return to “health” and within, how Moore’s (pre-suspension) return changed Bone’s substitution patterns and defensive scheme.
That all said, there are a few adjustments that Bone should make (but as of yesterday said he won’t) that would make this season’s fortunes much brighter than what I suspect we will see by year’s (or weekend’s) end:
(The Lead: GO BACK TO THE SUBSTITUTION PATTERNS used against KSU and Gonzaga)
When you look back to our biggest wins of the season, there really is one constant: Faisel Aden lit it up. And when you look back to compare the difference between this year’s team and last year’s conference doormat, you see a couple areas of improvement: (1) Klay is much better; (2) Abe and Motum are improved; and (3) Aden, Aden, Aden, Aden, Aden. On the flipside, when you look at where this year’s team is WORSE than last year’s team, you see one glaring change: Moore is MUCH worse on both ends of the floor than last year.
When Moore was hurt earlier in the year, we started each game the same way we did last Saturday (which, coincidentally we won), Marcus played the point, Aden played a 2-3 combo, and Thompson played a 2-3 combo. On defense, we largely played a zone–and did so with good results: With ALL players on the court standing at 6-4 or higher, we had the necessary length needed to extend out to the perimeter. And because we weren’t always collapsing down low, we were able to consistently clog the passing lanes at the same time that we contested the three ball. The result: Even against good teams, we were able to get out in transition based on our ability to turn teams over and collect long rebounds. Moreover, when forced to bring the ball up the court, Capers led the conference in Assist-to-Turnover ratio. And yes, that came against teams that were pretty good with man-to-man ball pressure.
In addition, when we went to our half-court set, we actually had one. Instead of the world standing on or around the high post trying to set screens for Klay, we actually had two guys on the court that could create and score/finish off the dribble. When Faisel got off, Klay became more and more lethal. And when Klay got doubled, Faisel made them pay. And when both went off, then everyone else got theirs: Simon would have wide open jumpers, Casto would have space, Motum would do his crafty stuff around the low-post/baseline, and Marcus had many more opportunities to float around the baseline after his first or second distrubution from up top.
But since Moore came back, we’ve slowly regressed to last year’s team. Because Reggie has no length and plays no defense whatsoever, we can’t play good zone with him on the floor. So, we go to man, where, as a team, we are terrible. In addition, because Reggie has come to view himself as a distrubutor (which he is NOT, he’s a scorer), he doesn’t offer anything to us anymore in a half-court set. The result: We start each game with 1.5 scorers on the floor: We have Klay and we have an occasional Moore or Casto. But beyond that, we have nothing: Marcus still can’t create for himself in the halfcourt, Abe sets more screens than he looks for shots, Casto has NO moves from the high post (where his is often positioned to set screens for Klay), and Moore’s repertroire has devolved to a host of wild runners that do nothing but create opportunities for other guards to release the moment he darts into the lane.
Moreover, when you look at how our substitution patterns have changed from earlier in the year, the situation worsens. With Moore starting, Faisel comes in for Capers or Klay. When Faisel spells Klay, we have addition by subtraction–we add a scorer to the floor by taking our best off the floor. When Faisel comes in for Capers, we bring a rythm scorer (who will ALWAYS need shots to get into a rythm) but take our best defender off the floor. In some cases, that substitution results in subtraction by subtraction. With Moore AND Aden on the floor, we are HORRIBLE defensively. And if Faisel isn’t hitting, we become worse both offensively AND defensively.
Of course, the Moore issue doesn’t even get to how weak our substitution patterns in the post have become since the start of the year. Remember, when Casto was struggling with health, we’d start Abe along with Motum. Then, at the 15 minute mark, we’d bring in Casto, Moore, and Simon. With this line-up, Casto’s minutes were shrunk by five minutes from the get go without sacrificing an ounce of production from him, while Motum left the floor already with a feel for the flow of the game. In addition, Reggie would enter the game with the green light to create his own shot–and would typically find success running right at the opponents’ first guard off the bench. Then, depending on who was hot (or not), Bone entered the final five minutes of each half with an ability go to with whomever had the hot hand, or altnernatively, to go with defense. Remember, even against Gonzaga, we had establlished ourselves as a legit 8-9 deep team with two legit 20.0ppg scorers. Now, we’re a essentially a 7 deep team (Aden and Simon or Motum) with one superstar and maybe one other guy who might put up 14 on any given night.
And that, dear followers, is last year’s team all over again.
So, with a weak ASU team up first Thursday tonight, I suspect us to win regardless of who plays. But, with an aggressive Arizona team up on Saturday, we better hope that we see Moore coming off the bench (now that his pesky suspension has been lifted), or I’m afraid we’re in for a long night, and by extension, a long year.
Finally, if you’re in the mood for further doom and gloom, ask yourself this question:
If we can’t make the Dance this year with talent such as Klay, Casto, Aden, Moore, Capers, and company, when will we?
Can you really imagine that Bone is going to bring in a set of recruits with as much talent any time in the near future?
Enjoy the rest of your week.
And Go Cougs.
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