Picking The Pac – Part III

Good morning, Cougs! Today I’m taking my crack at predicting the order of finish in the Pac 12. I’ll admit up front that I won’t be near as thorough as LucasCoug and Sutra were. For one, I’m super lazy. Secondly, I’m not that smart and I figure I’d botch the records to the point that the end result would be a mathematical impossibility. Don’t let these two character flaws fool you into thinking I am somehow not an expert prognosticator, though. It would be wise to take the information from today’s post, fly straight to Vegas and throw down all your disposable income on these very picks. Heck, even use some of your non-disposable income. That’s the type of locks I’ve got for you. If you want to impress all your friends at parties before the season kicks off, click on the jump and get a little knowledge from my (un)official Pac 12 media ballot.

Pac 12 South

1. USC

2. Arizona State

3. Arizona

4. Utah

5. UCLA

6. Colorado

I realize that the ASU bandwagon is awfully crowded right now, but I just don’t see them having the goods to take the division. Maybe it’s the Dennis Erickson factor or maybe it’s the fact that they only went 6-6 last season or maybe it’s that their new logo is stupid and fearing a fork is even more stupid. Whatever the reason, I couldn’t put them in first place. Somebody has to be on top, though, and I think it’ll be the ol’ stand by, the Trojans. This figures to be the year that Matt Barkley makes the leap to elite status. He’ll have to deliver the goods September 24 in Tempe and I believe he will. On the bright side for Sun Devil fans, this would still mean a trip to the Pac 12 title game because Reggie Bush and his family did some bad things 5 years ago, or something.

I strongly considered putting the Utes at number 3, but the news this week that Juron Criner expects to be ready to roll this fall led me to give the ‘Cats a slight edge. In an interesting subplot, Arizona QB Nick Foles will be in a heated season-long battle with our own Jeff Tuel to earn the crown of “Best QB Who If You Passed On The Street Would Never Suspect Was A Big Time College Athlete” (or the BQWIYPOTSWNSWABTCA for short). Good luck, gentlemen.

The bottom of the division is a bit of a toss-up. I don’t feel good about putting the Buffs in last place, but it had to be done. I in no way expect them to stay there for long, but there is some clean-up work to be done following the Dan Hawkins era. UCLA will avoid last in the division, but Rick Neuheisel will not avoid packing his belongings and cleaning up his resume at season’s end.

Pac 12 North

1. Oregon

2. Stanford

3. Washington

4. Washington State

5. Oregon State

6. California

First of all, this division is tough. Really tough, and even tougher to project. In reality, I see the division in two tiers: Oregon and Stanford are in the top tier and will be 1,2 in some order. The teams I have listed 3-6 could fall in any order in those spots, but let me try to explain my decision making in those tiers.

As much as I like Andrew Luck (enough that I wanted my beloved Bengals to not draft a QB and throw the upcoming season so they could draft him), I think that the losses of Jim Harbaugh and on the offensive line will be too much too overcome. On top of that, the Ducks are still extremely talented and an extremely difficult match up for the Cardinal.

As for the melee among the other four, I (begrudgingly) gave the edge to the Dogs because I think Keith Price will be solid enough to keep teams from completely loading up to stop Chris Polk and Coach Sarkisian will keep the offense balanced enough to be successful. Of the four teams in the bottom two-thirds in the division, UW has the most talent. I’ll be back in a moment after I punch myself in the face repeatedly after having to type that last sentence…

And we’re back! Before I get accused of homerism for picking the Cougs to finish 4th in the division and go bowling, let’s get one thing straight: Of course I’m a homer! I went to Washington State and write for the WSU Football Blog. An unbiased opinion is virtually impossible, but in all seriousness I believe WSU can finish ahead of Cal and OSU. To do so, they’ll have to beat one or both of those teams, which is very possible. In an interesting wrinkle, both games will be played at neutral sites (OSU @ CenturyLink field and Cal @ AT&T park). Even the most diehard of Beaver fans can’t take issue with my picking WSU to win that match-up after a thorough beatdown at Reser last year and even the most diehard of Cal fans can’t say they feel good about the quarterback situation in Berkley. Using the scientific law of “Tuel > ?”, it’s advantage Cougs. Beyond that, WSU will need to split the early road games against Colorado and UCLA and take down Utah at home. Throw in the Apple Cup, again at CenturyLink, as a toss up and you’ve got a nice slate of “winnable” games. I like WSU to go 4-5 in the conference. Cal and OSU should each fall in the 2-3 win range in the conference and stay home for the holidays.

Look for the first ever Pac 12 Championship Game to be ASU* @ Oregon, with the Ducks taking home the crown. The big question will be whether or not that will be enough for a return trip to the national championship game. That question will be answered early with Oregon having a week 1 showdown against LSU. For the sake of the conference I hope the Fighting O’s can put a dent in the SEC armor and more importantly give me bragging rights over this dude at work that’s always talking about how awesome the SEC is.

There you have it, Pac 12 fans. I look forward to all the thank you’s when you collect your winnings in Vegas.

Go Cougs.