Hello Followers. Hope you’re having a great second week of training camp!
As for me, well, the countdown til game week is now firmly in sight.
In two short weeks, we will all be engrossed in game week!
But before that, next week, I will renew my annual tradition of giving you my “Hope or Nope” post; which represents my official take on how I see this season playing out (remember our pre-season predictions neglect important developments which occur in and around training camp; so the Hope or Nope post is essentially my mulligan).
This week I offer you one-of-a-kind insight into the Sutra mind warp. Specifically, in this post, I give you the key question that I think will determine this season’s fortunes. And, in so doing, I will actually look at some data to back up my thinking/questioning.
Sound interesting? Then Read on……
Followers, by now we all basically know what needs to happen in order for us to have a successful, return-to-bowl-eligibility type season.
For one, our players on both sides of the ball need to stay reasonably healthy. And within, we can NOT lose Jeff Tuel to any type of injury.
And the second key to this season is as follows: Our offense is going to have to score a truck load of points.
So, without going too far toward burying the lead, the open question facing this team is as follows: Exactly how good does this offense need to be?
In view of this question, I took a look back at the last 25 years of Cougar Football, paying attention only to those teams which won enough games to be bowl eligible. From there, I looked at the number of conference and non-conference games in which we put up more than 30 points. And, at least for me, the numbers were pretty striking. Check it out:
1988: 9-3, 5-3 in conference.
30+ points: 3 conference games
40+ points: 3 non-conference games
Total: 6 games of at least 30 points
1989: 6-5, 3-5 in conference.
30+ points: 2 conference games.
40+ points: 2 conference games, 2 non-conference games.
Total: 6 games of at least 30 points
1992: 9-3, 5-3 in conference
30+ points: 3 conference games, 1 non-conference game
40+ points: 1 conference game, 1 non-conference game
Total: 6 games of at least 30 points
1994: 8-4, 5-3 in conference
30+ points: 0
40+ points: 0
Total: ZERO. POINT. ZERO.
1997: 10-2, 7-1 in conference
30+ points: 4 conference games, 1 non-conference game
40+ points: 2 conference games, 2 non-conference games
Total: 9 games of at least 30 points
2001:10-3, 6-2 in conference
30+ points: 1 conference game, 1 non-conference game
40+ points: 3 conference games, 2 non-conference games
Total: 7 games of at least 30 points
2002: 10-3, 7-1 in conference
30+ points: 4 conference games
40+ points: 3 conference games, 2 non-conference games
Total: 9 games of at least 30 points
2003: 10-3, 6-2 in conference
30+ points: 4 conference games
40+ points: 1 conference game, 1 non-conference games
Total: 6 games of at least 30 points
2006: 6-6, 4-5 in conference
30+ points: 4 conference games
40+ points: 1 non-conference game
Total: 5 games of at least 30 points
What I glean from this data is pretty straightforward. Clearly, the Palouse Posse was an aberration for WSU Football: We will NEVER again have a defense as good as that group, and we will also NEVER will we have a winning football team that has an offense as bad as that one.
So, when you remove 1994 from the slate, you see a basic recipe for our past success:
When we’re bowl eligible, the offense typically scores at least 30+ points in about 4 conference games. When we are a Rose Bowl contender, that number jumps to five or six games. And, when you add non-conference to the mix, our best teams have scored over 30 points in 9 games (e.g. nearly every game)
(By the way, go back and check out the scores for the 1997 Rose Bowl team–they jump off the page. Still my vote for best WSU Team ever–bar none. Not just the 30 or 40+ point games, but three games over 50 points in a game!).
Anyhow, when you look at the numbers, it seems pretty clear that we’re going to have to join that 30+ category several times in conference to have a shot at making the post season. Of course, last year, we completed such a feat ONCE (31 at Oregon State).
So, I ask you, recognizing that this offense is going to be better, do you think that it will be better enough–and within–will it be able to get on the field enough–to put up those types of numbers?
I’ll be giving you my thoughts next week, but in the meantime, you tell me–what four Pac-12 teams do you see us putting AT LEAST 30 on?
All for now.
Go Cougs.
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