Football Friday on Thursday – Week Five Edition

Happy Football Friday Cougar Fans! You may think this post is coming to you a day early, but I would just like to think our first four weeks were coming to you a day late. As some of you may recall from year’s past, our Football Friday post generally comes out on Thursdays, so here we are getting back to your roots. I for one, am juiced for this weekend’s game in Colorado. Not just because I will be their screaming for my Cougs to beat DaniBuff’s, well, Buffs, but because I will have a rooting interest that isn’t solely tied to my degenerate gambling habits this weekend. Last week was so tough, there was very little Cougar news to be soaked up, so it’s great to get back to a having games to look forward to.

I will be leaving for Boulder in a few short hours. If you are in Boulder and see me walking, err stumbling, around, say hello. If you’re looking for recommendations in Boulder, look here for some great ideas from a well versed Buff, and don’t forget to check back here this afternoon as Longball weighs in on his departure from Utah to Colorado. You can follow the shenanigans of both Longball and I via Twitter this weekend, right here. His Tweets will be tagged “-LB” and mine “-LC”

Soze is gonna be there, Selah is making the trek, Longball is too, I can’t wait to see if John Denver is full of sh&t or not.

Lucas Likes:

USC 30 – Arizona 24: The Trojans have definitely lost a step under Kiffin, but holy cow, how bad are the Wildcats? I’ve watched the Cats with a keen eye the last two weekends as I’ve bet against them and been coming up aces. I cannot recall the last time I watched a team self implode with penalites, dropped passes and poor execution like Zona did in the first half last weekend against USC. The Wildcats have lost eight straight to FCS foes, by an average of 18.75 points; and that number would be more than three touchdowns if it weren’t for a one point loss to ASU last November.

Utah 38 – Washington 35: The last time the Utes faced an atrocious defensive team, they dropped 54 on em (BYU). While the Dawgs D bent last weekend, it surprisingly didn’t break. That’s not to say this isn’t a horrible defense, that I think could potentially yield 400 yards through the air to Mr. Wynn this weekend. Not to make excuses, because their offense is fun to watch, but had the refs not completely missed a few defensive penalty calls last weekend, Holt’s butt would be burning right now. If you have to ask, I’m referring to a non-call against Trufant in the end zone that would have resulted in a Bears TD early in the game.

Arizona State 56 – OSU 10: So Katz will probably be their starter come Week Six after Burfict has his way with Manion. How the hell is the spread on this one under 20 points?

Stanford 59 – UCLA 17: If the Bruins lose this weekend, which they will, and lose at home next weekend to us, I don’t see Neuheisal as their coach come October 15th.

WSU 45 – Colorado 31: Two weeks ago in this column, I predicted big things for our Cougs down in a Whale’s You-Know-What. At the time, I had not seen the Aztecs play in 2011, and I was under the distinct impression their only weapon was Ronnie Hillman. I was wrong, we got killed by a monster of a TE named Escobar as well as a few DBs that were just rock solid. Not this week. I’ve seen CU play twice now, and they only have one threat, and that’s So WR Paul Richardson. Their RB, Rodney Stewart, has fallen back to realiy playing behind an absolutely porous OL. In addition, the penalties this team commits from a lack of discipline, would make Dennis Erickson blush. The one thing to keep an eye out for is the blitzing of LB Josh Hartigan, who is third in the country in sacks (4). At the end of the day, like my buddy Grimmace said the other night, our strength (Aerial Attack) matches-up very favorably with their poor secondary and their lack of a ground game plays to the fact our run defense just isn’t there yet.

Longball’s Locks:

Arizona 35 – USC 33 After a brutal stretch against top-10 competition the Cats are actually relieved to only be up against… USC.

Washington 32 – Utah 24 Last weekend the Dawgs benefitted from Cal’s ineptitude in the red zone, while giving up gobs of yards between the 20’s. This week they will benefit from Utah’s messy passing game led by an erratic Jordan Winn. After a week of hearing how awful their pass defense is the Dawgs will make like the Buffalo Bills and circle the wagons on the road against the Utes.

Arizona State 45 – OSU 21 Sooner or later somebody has to take over the Cougs spot in the basement of the Pac-12. Too bad it had to be the Beavs. There is actually “hot seat” talk in Corvallis, which is crazy.

Stanford 38 – UCLA 10 After Andrew Luck dismantles the Bruins this weekend, can the Cougs put the final nail in Neuheisel’s coffin next week?

WSU 42 – Colorado 35 Before the SDSU game I said in an e-mail to my fellow blog fathers… “I think the temptation to overwhelm them with swarms of our talented wideouts is a siren song and puts too much faith in Marshall”. The Cougs proceeded to make all my fears come true, ceding time of possession completely to the Aztecs by abandoning the run game. This put our defense and our backup QB in positions where they were bound to fail and they did. But, as I said in my picks on this here blog… it was going to be a loss, but an important loss, and one that we could learn and grow from as we entered a stretch of much much more important games against Colorado and UCLA. Did we learn? I think so and a re-focused, motivated and healthy Coug team will go into Folsom Field this weekend ready to do battle for a full four quarters. Cougs win, but it is going to be a war.

Tommy’s Take:

Arizona 30 – USC 33: I can’t name a team that’s had a tougher schedule through the first 5 weeks of the season than Arizona.  So much so that going on the road to USC presents their most winnable game in the past 4 weeks.  I think this will be a good game but I give USC the nod playing in the Coliseum.

Washington 38 – Utah 17:  Man I hate to admit this but I think UW has distinguished themselves as a bowl team.  Win this game and they’re only two games away.  However, they still have to go on the road and beat a decent Utah team.  They’re offense will be too much for the Utes.

Arizona State 42 – Oregon State 28: I picked ASU to win the Pac-12 South in the preseason, and they took a huge step toward that after beating USC last week.  They should roll the struggling Beavers.  I expect a TON of sacks from Burfict and Co.

Stanford 49 – UCLA 24: Losing Shane Skov for the season was a HUGE blow for Stanford, but luckily Harbaugh filled the shelves aplenty before bouncing for the NFL.  Plus they still have that one Quarterback who I hear is pretty good.  They’ll be fine against the Bruins.

WSU 28 – Colorado 30: I hope I’m wrong here.  God I hope I’m wrong here.  I was just as guilty as everyone else for getting high hopes after the first two weeks.  I thought we were going to beat the Aztecs, but the wheels fell off.  I just don’t think we’re quite there yet, to be consistently beating teams on the road.  In many regards, it is a do-or-die for both teams and I just have a hunch that we’re going to let this one get away from us.

Sutra Declares:

After a MISERABLE 2-3 week last week, I’m going stright to the picks.  You can read about my thoughts about this weekend’s game TOMORROW.

USC 36  Arizona 31:  The first BIG gut-check game of the CRAP-12 season.  USC now faces the rest of their probation nation slate with minimal chances of a south division championship.  Meanwhile, Arizona faces their own “must-win” against a secondary that looks right for the picking.  In the end, one team can run the football and the other can’t.  Hence, Conquest marches on for another week.

Washington 38 Utah 35:  Quietly, UW is developing a “just win” culture that should have all of us concerned.  Very concerned.  Here’s to thinking that UW’s O is more dynamic that the Utes in what should be the most entertaining game of the week.

Arizona State 42 – Oregon State 10: U-G-L-Y.

Stanford 45 – UCLA 13:   I think that UCLA’s final tally might be a bit high.

Colorado OVER WSU: More on this one tomorrow….

SeanHawk Sez:

What up Cougs?  No, I’m not in the pic (……or am I??), but I figure you either 1) already know what I look like, and/or 2) you really don’t care?  So why not roll with the CU females that many of you will come across this weekend in Boulder??

Speaking of Boulder, did you know that none other than Jonah Hill spent a semester there before flunking out?  It’s true.  Jonah was on Howard Stern last week, and you can hear parts of the interview here, here, and here, in three parts.  The interview starts about 6 or so minutes into the first link, and runs well into the third link.  WARNING – Howard’s show is on Sirius, as you probably know.  It is UNCENSORED, and some of it is pretty crude and very unlikely to be “safe for work”.  You have been warned…..

Some other interesting things about Jonah:

1) He was discovered as a 17-year old by Dustin Hoffman?  Jonah hung out with Hoffman’s kids, and used to do hilarious prank calls.  But that’s pretty cool!

2) He’s lost a bunch of weight by no longer eating like a 6-year old at a birthday party?  You know, chicken fingers, pizza, mac-n-cheese!?

3) Some of the party scenes from Get Him to the Greek with P-Diddy were very true to real life, based on experiences Jonah had with P-Diddy prior to filming?

4) Brad Pitt is “impossibly handsome”, but also a pretty cool guy to work with.

With that, here’s this weeks picks:

USC 28, Arizona 17: Both of these teams have some major flaws, but I think Arizona is a mess and STOOPID is in big trouble.  Matt Barkley should have a big day against the hapless Zona D.  Meanwhile Brock Huard went into great detail about how Matt Barkley isn’t very good in the clutch, and that his fourth quarter numbers were abysmal compared to the rest of a typical game for the SC QB.  I am a big fan of Brock and think overall he does a very good job.  But I don’t know, is it just me or did Brock NOT take Jake Locker to task last year over his obvious shortcomings against good teams?   Hmmmm.

Utah 41, UW 38: UW’s D still isn’t great, but they showed up late vs. Cal and got some key stops at home.  Meanwhile Utah is looking pretty good, and the Utes absolutely mopped the floor with BYU’s bottoms last week.  UW will score points, again, and I think Price will continue to set a strong standard for his level of play.  But the feeling here is that the Utes get it done at home with a late field goal.

Arizona State 34, Oregon St 20: ASU rolling, Beavs falling apart.

Stanford 35, UCLA 17: It might be tight into the third, but Luck and the Cardinal pull run away and hide while UCLA will struggle after half-time.

Finally, the Cougs.  The reports have been promising this week, as WSU sounds upbeat and healthier after the bye week.  I sense a bounce back from Marshall, and I think the O-line will play a lot better than they did vs. SD State.  Most of all, that first road game is behind them, and they should be better for the SD State experience…..I hope.

 The worry here is that CU is actually a lot better than they have looked at times this young season.  Yeah, they looked bad at Ohio State last week, but they also looked pretty good vs. Colorado State and came up just short vs. Cal in OT.  And in that OSU loss, they turned it over a couple of times early and got behind, so they had to get away from their game plan and couldn’t take full advantage of a really excellent running back in Rodney Stewart.  But Stewart isn’t off to the best of starts this year, and has yet to break the 100-yard barrier in four games.  So clearly CU is adjusting to the new offensive scheme.  Let’s hope they haven’t suddenly figured it out!

I think the Cougs will move the ball and score points, but will it be enough?  I expect a similar performance that Marshall had last time out, and that’s passing yards in the 300+ neighborhood and probably two or three TD’s, but also a couple of mistakes.  But what will they get from the running game?  Will they stick with it, even if they have a rough start and/or fall behind?  And how much will they rotate Logwone Mitz into the backfield?  I think we all loved seeing the lightning (Rickey Galvin) and thunder (Mitz) combo in the first two games of the year, but Mitz didn’t have a carry vs. SD State?

In the end, however, it’s going to come down to the defense and can they stop CU through the air.  Tyler Hansen at QB is pretty damn good, with over 1,000 yards passing and a 9/1 TD-INT ratio on the young season.  And he hasn’t thrown an INT since week one!  And while not a total burner, he can move around well enough to give the Coug D some headaches.  Meanwhile the Cougs looked improved up front the first two weeks on D, but got very little pressure on SD State last game, and they paid for it over four quarters as Ryan Lindley made key throws down the stretch.  However they do it, WSU MUST GET PRESSURE ON HANSEN this week!  Otherwise, well….

That said?  To me, this thing is setting up well for the Cougs to come in and get a win.  Why?  Well, first of all CU is off a tough road game last week vs. Ohio State, and it’s never an easy thing to go to Columbus.  Maybe they are still a little sore from the experience, and might be emotionally spent after last week?  At the same time, the Cougs were resting up with a full week off, able to lick their wounds and get ready for the rest of the season.  Not that they spent the full two weeks simply preparing for Colorado, you know that’s not the case.  But still, coming off the bye week against a team that is breaking in with a new coaching staff, and coming off a toughie at Ohio State?  Let’s just say it’s right there in front of them.

HOWEVER, I’m sorry to say it…..but CU is going to win.  And it’s all going to be because we can’t get to Tyler Hansen, and he’ll carve up the secondary with far too much time to set up and do his thing!  Colorado 34, Cougs 28.  And we anxiously await the return of Jeff Tuel.

GO COUGS!

Tim’s Takes:

I saw Tommy’s awesome rock star picture and wanted one of my own, but unfortunately I’m not a rock star picture and couldn’t track down any pictures from my days as a musician. (That’s my story anyway; in reality, I just didn’t want a picture of me in a marching band uniform on the internet). I have been told that Kevin Covais of American Idol fame is my doppelganger, so there you go. Aaaaaanyhew, on to my picks:

USC 28 – Arizona 14 Alright, Trojans. I’ve been picking you like it’s 2004 all season long and it hasn’t been working out exceptionally well. I’m giving you one last shot. If you don’t cover at home against a beatn down Arizona team, I’m giving up on you. I really feel for ‘Zona fans right now. What a brutal way to start the season. Now I’m done feeling for Arizona fans. I don’t really care that much.

Utah 42 – UW 31 OK, Husky fans. Keith Price is good. Like, really good. Congratulations. Unfortunately, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. The MUSS is going to be absolutely fired up for this one. The environment down in the SLC figures to be unbelievable. And there’s this nugget: Utah is a good football team. Cutting edge analysis! I just think that with a bye week at his disposal, Kyle Whittingham will be able to come up with just enough to stop Coach Sarkisian’s high powered offense. For those of you scoring at home, my streak of refusing to call him “Coach Sark” is alive and well. I don’t know why this bothers me. I need professional help. Moving on!

Arizona State 35 – Oregon State 14 How did the situation for the Beavs turn into such a mess? I should be able to better understand how these things happen since I watched the WSU football program fall apart in right in front of me, but I just don’t get it. Also, how did ASU turn into a team that wins big games? What the hell is happening?! I’m scared and I’m confused.

Stanford 49 – UCLA 10 UCLA stinks. Just sayin’.

Now for the big one. You may have noticed that I rolled with all the home favorites this week. I even picked them all to cover. Sadly, I’ve got to do it one more time. I would love to pick a Cougar victory here, but I don’t see it this week. I’ve lost my ability to trust the Lobster, I’m concerned about the Roxas-Goetz-Meighen situation at center and I think that even when they’ve struggled lately, the Buffs have still managed to play well at home. I said before the season that the Cougs will have to come out of the next two weeks with a split to make a bowl. My tune hasn’t changed, but I have decided which game will be the one where we get a W and it’s not this one. That’s a little something that literary types like to call foreshadowing. As for the week at hand, I see it Colorado 38 – WSU 28. I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

Go Cougs.