Hello Cougar Nation and the ever-resurgent Ball Hater (BH) army! Hope you all have had tremendous weeks.
As for me, well, its been a doozy. I mean, since my return to the Mothership, I am now on a respectable 3 game winning streak predicting the Cougs’ fortunes and have actually become bowl eligible as a result..
Of course, the question on all of our minds is whether or not the Cougs can continue to build such a solid streak of their own..
Read on…
Nation, with the exception of the UCLA game, this one seems the hardest to call of the entire seasons’ slate. On one hand, we have a Utah team that is on a three game tear. In fact, their streak is so impressive that Paul Wulff and the rest of the Pac-12 media have painted Utah’s defense as similar to that of an upper echelon SEC team!
Of course, the flip side to Utah’s current streak is the competition. After all, Oregon State can’t beat a flea when their quarterback gets pressure, AZ has played well in all of 1.5 games this season, and UCLA is a team that can’t score if it can’t run the ball.
And then there’s us. On one hand, we saw what this offense is capable of when it has a quarterback with enough hoopspa and talent to really sling it around the field. And that defense (more importantly its coordinator) that I love to bash so much? Well, its looked pretty darn good, fast, and aggressive in two out of the last three weeks.
Yet, when you look critically at our performance last weekend, there is a whole lotta room for pause. After all, we all knew that ASU was on a slide and that they tend to underachieve in Pullman. What’s more, while we DID put a legit 37 on the board, they still moved the ball on us big time and arguably should have put up 37 of their own. I mean, not only was their the 4th down call terrible (not only the play call proper, but also the decision to not kick the FG), but the botched hurry up on 3rd down that preceded it was bad as well; as was the dropped touchdown pass with 5:00 left that would have given them the lead was horrible, as was the missed 21 yard field goal… And then we have the lingering question about whether or not Doc Halliday’s performance was just “one of those things”….
So, that’s the confusing backdrop to this one. And with that confusion in mind, here are the keys:
1) Start Fast
Sutra showed this in his post of lottery numbers yesterday. Namely, when Utah is leading at the half, they win. And, when they are trailing at the half, they lose. So, count me in as a guy that will be glued to those first few possessions. Simply put, we’re going to have to move the ball early and we’re going to have to keep them from doing so, since their physical running game figures to get increasingly punishing as the night (and cold) wear on. On the plus side for us, we showed in the first 5 games this year that we have the scheming to score on our initial possessions. So, dial it up, Mr. Sturdy.
2) Lets Get Physical
For two out of the past two weeks we have seen some really nice physical play out of three units: (a) Our defense; (b) Our offensive line; and (c) Our running backs. (And by the way, Carl Winston has become my favorite player since Scott Lunde. I fricking LOVE the attitude he brings to this football team!)
But beyond those units, the group that has to play uber physical is our wide receiver corps. After all, even this idiot knows what Utah’s game plan is going to be: Mix in various blitz packages and play hard bump and run, man-to-man coverage, hoping that the only time Doc will have this week is ample time to make mistakes.
So, for us to give Doc Halliday a chance to replicate last week’s performance, our WRs are going to have to play their toughest and best game yet. And that means, getting off the line, gaining separation, catching the rock, and finishing the fricking play. In the end, I think Karstetter determines the welfare of this group: If he brings it THROUGHOUT the game, then not only will Wilson get his looks (assuming he’s healthy), but the most underrated WR in the conference, Isiah Barton, will get his. All three of those dudes need to rack up about 70 yards a piece for us to win this game.
3) De-Bug the Injury Bug
For the first time in a while, the injury bug seems to be biting us. At press time yesterday, Wilson and Buchanon were listed on the doubtful side of questionable. NOT GOOD. While Wilson is vital in his own right, he is also vital to the effectiveness of the other guys. So, if he can’t go, then Bobby R and/or Eady is going to have to really stretch this thing out. And, again, they are going to have to be tougher than tough.
And, of course, then there’s Deonne who I thought was BRILLIANT last week against the run in the ASU game. And he if he doesn’t play, well, that doesn’t bode well for us at all.
On the plus side, I loved the play of Mike Ledgerwood last week. So, while I shudder thinking about him trying to figure out/keep up with UW’s balanced attack next week, if Mike attacks the gaps the way he did last week, he’ll do better than CJ.
4) 300
Nice number, terrrible movie. But beyond that, 300 also represents Utah’s average yards per game. In other words, we’re not talking about an offensive juggernaut here. We’re talking about a Ground Chuck, ball control outfit that does just enough walking for their defense to do the talking. And so, given that this is a home game, senior day, with a bowl game on the line, this defense HAS TO STEP UP and keep this team under 23 points and 350 yards. If we do anything but, then you can count me in as a guy that has a Noose ready for Chris Ball.
5) Don’t be Special
Last week, we all saw how HORRIBLE special teams play can nearly wreck ideal performances by our offense and defense. As we saw, we gave up scores (via short fields) after we scored all game (e.g. literally giving back the lead) and our punting game was absolutely horrific.
Of course, this weekend, the temperature will be below freezing for the entire game. And so, you can be that the kicking game is going to be that much more perilous. Even worse, one of the guys who I thought would help with the special teams this week (Buchanon) is hurt, so we’re going to need some other defensive starters to really get out there and after it. Simply put, give Utah a short field, they’ll win. Give them a long field, and they will struggle to score.
Prediction
Last week was monumental for several reasons; the biggest was our ability in one game to accomplish the three primary pillars of winning with a young quarterback: (a) We stayed aggressive; (b) We came from behind in the fourth quarter; and (c) We finished offensively in the fourth quarter with a lead.
On top of that, while Doc could get rattled by what Utah throws at him this Saturday, Doc didn’t look rattled by what we threw at him last Saturday. That is, while it is commonplace to shrink the playbook for a new player, we used a truck load of sets in that Arizona State game. So, one has to think that Doc is prepared for what Sturdy may throw at him on Saturday. And against a good defense, having multiple options is so darn important.
And so, I say to you, Nation, that if this game is reasonably close, there is NO DOUBT in my mind that we will win this game. Meaning, if this games final tally is something like 24-17, 30-24, 37-30, 17-14, the team with the higher number is going to be the Cougs. I have that much confidence in Doc and the rest of the gang playing on Senior night.
Unfortunately, I think that this game is going to be brutal. Not only do I think that our special teams will prove disasterious, but I think our defense is not going to rise to the challenge of the day. And I think that Utah is actually going to throw the ball this week and do so with effectiveness. And, while I think we’ll see enough from Doc to realize that last week was, in fact, NOT a fluke, I also think that a limited Wilson threatens to really derail the confidence of the offense, especially if we start slow.
In the end, call it 34-16 Utes in a game that will have people in fits once again, because it won’t be that close. But hey, that’s life, and that’s been the ups and downs of Cougar football.
Best, best, BEST wishes to the seniors on senior night. Go get em boys!
And Go Cougs!
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