Beating the Spread: AAC Week 12

If any among you decided to fade my picks in anticipation of a rough week, then you did well for yourself because a couple unexpected outcomes in last week’s games led me to a 1-3 mark against the spread in the AAC for Week 11. That brings my season mark to 25-22-1, which is actually a tad better than respectable given the parity the AAC has given us week-to-week.

Maybe there were a few, but I personally don’t know anyone who thought Army would beat UConn by two touchdowns or that Tulane would go on the road and beat Houston who had won three straight and was probably playing the best of anyone in the conference.

But, such is life in trying to predict anything in college football, especially in a conference as wide open as the American this season. Week 12 features four conference match-ups, headlined by ECU at Cincinnati in one of the banner games of the season for the AAC, and an intriguing intrastate non-conference showdown between Temple and Penn State in Happy Valley.

Let’s get to the goods and hope for a quick return to my winning ways in Week 12.

Thursday

ECU (-2.5) @ Cincinnati, 7:00 p.m. ET

As of Wednesday night this line has not changed since it opened, and a lot of that probably has to do with no solid news on the Gunner Kiel front. Coach Tommy Tuberville has stuck to his guns in saying that both Munchie Legaux and Kiel will play, although he did say Kiel is as close to 100 percent as he’s been thanks to the bye last week. Earlier today I had a brief back and forth on Twitter with our site founder, Tyler Waddell, about how official word on if Kiel will start and how much he will play may affect the spread in this game:

@AAC_FB_Fever looks like Vegas sees it as a pick’em game at the moment… Home-field is usually worth about 2.5 to 3 points in their eyes.

— Mitch Wilcox (@mitch_wilcox) November 12, 2014

@AAC_FB_Fever Definitely. Bettors are going to be HEAVY on ECU w/ them getting points. If Kiel is a go, that should shift it even more.

— Mitch Wilcox (@mitch_wilcox) November 12, 2014

It will be interesting to see how that ends up shaking out leading right up to kickoff, and it’s something Tyler and I will be monitoring as we bring you coverage from the game at Paul Brown Stadium. Thankfully it will be from the press box as the game-time temps are supposed to be in the 20s.

But I digress. This game should be all about offense. The Pirates come in averaging 549.5 yards and 35.9 points per game, good for 4th and 25th in the FBS, respectively. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are averaging 465.9 yards and 34.8 points per game, which ranks them 28th and 31st in the country, respectively, and that has been with a small quarterback rotation given Kiel’s rib injury. This game is likely going to be decided by turnovers and defensive stops, which should give ECU a slight advantage as it has held opponents to 339.4 yards and 23 points per game. UC’s defense on the other hand has been quite the sieve to talented offenses. The stats have improved for the ‘Cats over the last three weeks against a few poor offensive teams in SMU, USF and Tulane, but due to the historically bad start to the season defensively, Cincinnati still ranks 111th in total defense and 87th in scoring defense in the nation.

I honestly don’t have a great feel for what will happen in this game. ECU looked shaky in a road victory over USF, then even more unsteady in beating UConn at home, and those two performances culminated in a slightly surprising 20-10 loss at Temple. Meanwhile, Cincinnati won its three games in that stretch in dominant fashion, looking exactly like the team favored to win the AAC in the preseason. I can see either team winning, but I think the Bearcats have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Shane Carden and the Pirates, and an improved running game will help them move the chains and keep their defense off the field.

Give me Cincinnati and the 2.5 points here, and hopefully it turns out to be as good a game as anticipated with both squads coming off a bye and vying for the conference crown.

Friday

Tulsa @ UCF (-20.5), 8:00 p.m. ET

Six of UCF’s eight games this year have been decided by 10 points or less, and six of Tulsa’s nine games have been decided by 10 points or more. What does that mean? Well, I’m not really sure. Tulsa has only beaten Tulane and SMU on the season, while UCF had looked like it would cruise to a potential AAC title-deciding match-up against ECU to end the season before it stubbed its toe in a loss to UConn on the road two weeks ago. Ugh.

Obviously, Tulsa is not good, but UCF simply hasn’t been a team to blow anyone away this year, as evidenced by a 4-4 record ATS. The Knights are scoring 25.8 and allowing 21.4 points per game this season, and while they should be able to move the ball easily against a leaky Golden Hurricane defense, I don’t think they will ever pull away by three touchdowns as the line suggests.

20.5 points are too many to swallow when UCF is the favorite. Take Tulsa and the points here.

Saturday

Temple @ Penn State (-11.5), Noon ET

In my opinion, this is the worst line of the week. I realize this is an AAC vs. Big Ten showdown, and that the Nittany Lions are at home, but we don’t bet on perceptions. Six of the Penn State’s nine games have been decided by seven points or less, and if you take out its two blowouts of MAC opponents, their average margin of victory is only 3.67 points.

Both of these teams allow less than 20 points a game defensively, good for top 10 rankings in the FBS. And despite the hype surrounding quarterback Christian Hackenberg, the Lions are only scoring 20.3 per game which places them outside the top 100 scoring offenses in the nation.

This game is going to be ugly, and although PSU has won the last ten games straight-up between these two, the Owls are actually 3-1 ATS in the last four match-ups. So, give me Temple and the points here. I’m all-in on the underdogs this week apparently.

Memphis (-10.5) @ Tulane, 3:30 p.m. ET

Well, ignore my last comment about being all-in on the underdogs. I know, I know–the Green Wave just took down a hot Houston Cougars team on the road last week, I hear you. But I certainly don’t want to bet on Tulane to beat a rock solid Memphis team, and I also don’t think they keep it that close given their 19-point average margin of defeat in six losses this season.

The only stat you really need to know for this one is that the Tigers defense ranks 13th in college football in points allowed per game, and the Green Wave offense ranks 115th in points scored per game.

I’ll eat the points and roll with Memphis.

USF (-11) @ SMU, 8:00 p.m. ET

Man, it seems like the AAC gives us one of these games weekly, and it almost always seems to include SMU. And by “one of these games” I mean that if you are the parents of the starting quarterback of either team, you are definitely skipping out on this one to watch Auburn at Georgia or Florida State at Miami (Fl.). Hell, you may even want to catch-up on a show on Netflix.

There really isn’t much to analyze here. The book on the Mustangs for 2014 is out: they are not good. Okay, I’m being kind: they stink. And while USF is hardly much better, it is still more than 11 points better than SMU. If you need a number to make you feel better about it, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, and the Mustangs are 2-6 ATS this season.

When you’re betting ATS on an SMU game in 2014, 1) you probably have a problem, and 2) you always take whichever team is not SMU. Swallow the points and ride the Bulls.