Ever wonder why weather men and women tend to be among the best looking or most charming on the news team? It’s not just some freak phenomena.
News organizations do this so that when the time comes that their weather predictions go terribly wrong, the attractiveness of that particular person mitigates the anger of the viewers.
I fall into that same category.
The great thing about being a writer, particularly in fantasy sports, is that it’s the one job besides those pesky weather people where you can take an educated guess, be wrong beyond belief week after week, and still have a job because hey, after all, you’re pretty damn good looking and you promise to get it right the next time.
I consider myself very fortunate to fall into this category (the good looking part, not so much that whole paid to be a writer thing, because I haven’t yet reached that plateau in my young career).
In a week that the “eating crow” section of this piece has been nearly filled to capacity after last week’s mess of catastrophic misses, I thought that now would be a perfect time to reflect on one of my biggest misjudgements this season: Cam Newton.
I always enjoy the draft process of any sport. I find it interesting to research into a players background and attempt to project what they’ll amount to in their careers.
I think many people enjoy this process because of the whole “unknown factor” involved. It’s so intriguing to people because they look at these young prospects and wonder the franchise-altering impact they may have if their favorite team makes them their draft selection.
I had particular interest in last year’s draft mainly due to the fact that the Bills weren’t exactly considered Super Bowl contenders and were expected to occupy one of the earliest picks.
I admit that I was one of the biggest Cam Newton bashers you could find.
I hated everything about him. His personality, his playing style, everything. I questioned his work ethic and his mindset and not to mention his accuracy.
There’s no way his style of play would translate into the NFL, I thought. And somewhere deep inside my stubborn brain I was convinced whichever team drafted him would doom their franchise for the next decade without a doubt.
I was convinced the dude was the biggest lock to become the second coming of Jamarcus Russel. And I wanted him to have nothing to do with the Bills. Ever.
But boy, has Newton proved me wrong so far.
Through his first five career games, Newton has averaged nearly 350 yards passing per game. He is tied for third in the league in rushing touchdowns. He’s the only player in NFL history to record both five rushing and passing touchdowns in his first five games in the league.
It’s just incredible what he’s been able to do so far. And on a Carolina Panthers team that went 2-14 last season and made no substantial improvements over the off season no less.
In fact, from a fantasy standpoint, the only quarterbacks I’d rather have on my roster right now rhyme with Karen Dodgers, Brew Trees and Dom Grady. Which is why I never feature Newton in the “Studs” section, simply because he’s proved to be one of those guys you must start every week. No exceptions.
Granted, he’s made the rookie mistakes that have either directly or indirectly led to the Panthers’ 1-4 start this season. But man, does this kid have a future if he keeps this up. Like we’re talking Michael Vick-esque. Maybe even more.
No disrespect to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but could you imagine if Newton fell to the Bills at No. 3? The future would certianly be an exciting one.
Alright, so I’m done drooling over Newton, let’s get to the good stuff.
Oh, by the way, I promise to get my picks right this week.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs of week six, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 5 Told’ya So (Studs)
DeSean Jackson WR PHI
Projected: 6 REC 129 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 5 REC 86 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Brandon Pettigrew TE DET
Projected: 8 REC 94 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 39 YDS, 1 TD, 11 PTS
Week 5 Eating Crow (Studs)
Matt Ryan QB ATL
Projected: 314 YDS 3 TD 1 INT, 23 PTS
Actual: 167 YDS 1 TD 2 INT, 7 PTS
Steven Ridley RB NE
Projected: 123 TOTYDS 1 TD, 2 REC, 17 PTS
Actual: 13 TOTYDS 0 TD, 0 PTS
Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG
Projected: 140 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 1 TD, 24 PTS
Actual: 85 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 1 2PTCON, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Jacoby Jones WR HOU
Projected: 5 REC 97 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Actual: 1 REC 9 YDS, 0 TD, 1 PT
Week 1 Success Rate: 4/6, 66%
Week 2 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Week 3 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 4 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 5 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Studs
Colt McCoy QB CLE
Matchup vs Oakland
McCoy has quietly become this year’s version of Josh Freeman. Four straight weeks of 15, 13, 14 and 17 points has made McCoy one of the safest, most consistent quarterbacks you could start so far. Who would’ve thought, right? Well, me, of course. Hate to say that I knew it all along, but I am the one who dubbed McCoy the next Roger Stauback while coming out of college. Yet another successful quarterback the savvy scouts at One Bills Drive ultimately took a pass on. Sigh. But this week the Browns march into Oakland who (unsurprisingly) are one of the league’s worst teams at defending the pass. While I’m unsure that we should expect three or four touchdowns for McCoy this week (lets not forget, this is still the Browns we’re talking about), I find it very feasible he’ll put up at least two. Mr. Consistency. The definition of the perfect bye week fill-in.
Week 6 Forecast: 29/36 282 YDS 2 TD 1 INT, 16 RUSYDS, 17 PTS
Honorable mention: Cam Newton, Eli Manning
Felix Jones RB DAL
Matchup vs New England
Oh, Felix. How you have hurt me so. I had high hopes for you this season and how do you repay me? By averaging 60 yards/game and scoring one measly touchdown through four games this year? Well, this is your week to redeem yourself. I promise that if you rush for 200+ yards and four touchdowns your wrong doings will be forgiven. What? He’s on three of my fantasy teams. And for once, Jones may live up to the hype which caused me to use a third-round pick on his a**. The Cowboys take on the Patriots this week in a game that features two really good offenses and two, really, really bad defenses. Anyone else smell a shootout? Of course you do. Even if the ‘Boys don’t run the ball very often, Jones should remain active in the passing game against the Pats who have given up an average of eight receptions/game to opposing running backs. He’s a great play in all PPR leagues.
Week 6 Forecast: 19 CAR 102 YDS, 5 REC 63 YDS, 1 TD, 19 PTS
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC
Matchup vs Pittsburgh
My, how the mighty have fallen. The league’s No. 1 rush defense last season has dropped to an abysmal 29th so far this year. What’s going on in Pittsburgh? Well, I don’t know. If I did, I’d be a coach. Instead I’m a blogger writing about fantasy predictions. If you’re going to make me guess, though, I’d say it has to do with the old age factor. There’s a bunch of old men running around in that defense, and Jones-Drew should be the latest beneficiary of that. MDJ is another one of my preseason “busts” who has managed to defy my intelligence to get off to a good start this year. And Blaine Gabbert won’t be winning the Jags games anytime soon. So if you’ve got him, stick with the Mo here. He’ll do you well this week.
Week 6 Forecast: 25 CAR 113 YDS, 3 REC 19 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Honorable mention: Ryan Torain, Cedric Benson
James Jones WR GB
Matchup vs St. Louis
He’s against the Rams this week, do I really have to say anything else? Aw, fine. Whatever. If you’re going to make me work I guess I can go a little more in depth. The Rams rank towards the bottom of the league in pass defense right next to the beloved Patriots. The difference? Well, the Pats have Tom Brady. And Sam Bradford hasn’t done diddly squat this year. To his defense, though, playing from behind all the time must really suck. And the Rams’ corner backs, hell, their entire defense has been terrible. Needless to say you’re starting anything that has a heart beat, green, yellow, and wears a giant ‘G’ on their helmet this week. No, not that annoying, cheese-headed dairy farmer neighbor guy who moved here from Wisconsin. Ah, whatever. You get the point.
Week 6 Forecast: 6 REC 97 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Anquan Boldin WR BAL
Matchup vs Houston
Boldin has been pretty irrelevant thus far fantasy wise. But things are beginning to look up for the Ravens’ top wideout this week. The Ravens matchup with a battered Texans’ defense after losing Mario Williams for the year but it’s not even like Houston was stopping offenses with the former top pick in the lineup. The Texans are giving up the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and have allowed great games to virtually every No. 1 wideout they’ve faced so far this year. Not to mention Boldin gets his buddy Lee Evans back this week whose deep presence should open things down low for No. 81. Look for Boldin to have his best output of the year so far this season, especially if you have him in a PPR league.
Week 6 Forecast: 8 REC 103 YDS, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Honorable mention: Miles Austin, Marques Colston
Jermaine Gresham TE CIN
Matchup vs Indianapolis
Gresham has really started to develope some chemistry with Andy Dalton as of late and that only means good things for those of you who took a flyer on him off the waiver wire. Gresham has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and faces a Colts defense that isn’t exactly built to cover big, lengthy, athletic tight ends er.. anything else for that matter. Anyways, Gresham will have favorable matchups all game long and you know Dalton will be looking to his security blanket plenty of times, especially in the red zone. It’s pretty safe to expect at least 5-8 catches from his in this one, which makes him a very attractive option at TE based off that alone.
Week 6 Forecast: 7 REC 89 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Honorable mention: Dustin Keller, Tony Gonzalez
Week 5 Told’ya So(Duds)
Beanie Wells RB ARI
Projected: 102 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 60 TOTYDS, 0 REC, 1 TD, 10 PTS
Jared Cook TE TEN
Projected: 3 REC 43 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 59 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Week 5 Eating Crow(Duds)
Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
Projected: 203 YDS 0 TD 2 INT, 2 PTS
Actual: 228 YDS 5 TD 1 INT, 33 PTS
Frank Gore RB SF
Projected: 76 TOTYDS, 0 REC, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Actual: 143 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Pierre Garcon WR IND
Projected: 2 REC 24 YDS, 0 TD, 2 PTS
Actual: 5 REC 125 YDS, 2 TD, 22 PTS
Mike Wallace WR PIT
Projected: 4 REC 52 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Actual: 6 REC 82 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Week 1 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 2 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 3 Success Rate: 4/6, 66%
Week 4 Succes Rate: 3/6, 50%
Week 5 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 4-8, Season 31-29.
Duds
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB BUF
Matchup vs New York Giants
Aw, I know, I know, here come the boos. If only I cared. Listen, Fitzbeardy (as our own Matthew Stewart so affectionately refers to the Bills QB as) hasn’t been all that great the past two weeks. And you know why? Because he’s faced the Bengals and the Eagles. Ok, that’s not why. It’s because those same Bengals and Eagles rank towards the top of the league in their ability to rush the passer. Before that when Fitzpatrick seemingly convinced the entire Buffalo fan base he’s the second coming of Jim Kelly, he went up against the Chiefs, Patriots and Raiders. Not exactly the league’s most feared end rushers (the Chiefs rank 31st and the Pats 29th). Now, Fitz will have to face one of the league’s most feared pass rushes, with a depleted receiving corps no less. And despite the Giants’ secondary not being very good, the likes of Usi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck make up for a lot of bad coverage down field. Look, I like Fitz as much as the next guy. I just don’t like him to toss anything more than 250 yards and a single score this week.
Week 6 Forecast: 22/36 217 YDS 1 TD 2 INT, 8 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Michael Vick, Matt Schaub
Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
Matchup vs Jacksonville
Want to know the shocker of the century? The Jacksonville Jaguars have the league’s 10th best run defense as we speak. Yes, those Jaguars. You know, the ones who currently employ Paul Posluszny as their own MLB. Who would have thought the guy could actually, you know, run fast enough to tackle a running back. But alas, he has found a way. And it is Poz as well as his other group of huge, 250-pound linebacking-goons-who-could-tear-my-head- off-with-their-left-hand who are going to ensure Mendenhall continues on the rechid pace he’s been on so far this year. He’s been one of the biggest busts this year after being the definition of consistency last season. His season high is 66 rushing yards. It just doesn’t look good. Then again, all that happened the last time I dished out some Steeler hate was Big Ben throwing for 5 TDs.
Week 6 Forecast: 24 CAR 79 YDS, 0 REC, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Frank Gore RB SF
Matchup vs Detroit
I’ve hated on him two weeks in a row now, and where has that gotten me? Well, let’s just say it was two more losses for me to tack on to my season prediction standings. Needless to say, if I keep hating on him, I’m bound to get it right eventually, right? Well, that’s my premise this week. Not really, but really. He’s also facing a pretty good run defense in the Lions and I think the story line of the game is whether that knee of his will be able to hold up with the big old Ndamu-KONG plowing into him every time Gore touches the ball. Unfortunately he’s a big part of what Harbaugh wants to do in San Francisco, so this pick could again turn ugly on me. But, I just like the Lions more than you do, so deal with it.
Week 6 Forecast: 22 CAR 84 YDS, 1 REC 9 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson
Brandon Marshall WR MIA
Matchup vs New York Jets
I think he’s probably made more appearances in the “dud” section this season than anyone in the history of the world. But unlike Gore, he’s helped me to sustain my winning record so far this year. Marshall has been a huge bust for fantasy owners. Now, is it all his fault? No, not at all. I mean give the guy a break, he’s had to play with Chad Henne all season. As if that wasn’t enough torture for the diva, the poor man now has to catch passes from Matt Moore. Ouch. Hang in there, big guy. Next season you’ll have Andrew Luck tossing you the ball (even though I really hate the though of Luck in the AFC East, now that’s scary). This week will be no different for Marshall. As I said, he now has to take passes from Moore, but hopefully he’ll be able to at least be able to catch a few rays over there on Revis island. Don’t feel all too bad for the guy, I hear it’s nice there.
Week 6 Forecast: 3 REC 46 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Reggie Wayne WR IND
Matchup vs Cincinnati
Curtis Painter has actually stepped in and played relatively well for the Colts since Kerry Collins “went down”. But instead of throwing the ball Reggie Wayne’s way, Painter has for whatever reason targeted Pierre Garcon far more often (crazy, right? that’s what I thought last week, too). Wayne is another guy who has found the “dud” column multiple times this season and he joins us here again. This week he’ll get the same dose of Leon Hall that Stevie Johnson got a few weeks back. That’s not good. Hey, Reggie, maybe if Adam Schefter’s wishes came true you’d be a Buffalo Bill this week and everything would be all better. Ha! Yeah, right.
Week 6 Forecast: 4 REC 53 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: DeSean Jackson, Santana Moss
Owen Daniels TE HOU
Matchup vs Baltimore
Owen Daniels has been a pretty solid contributor so far this season, but this week he runs into a slight problem. He has to face off against a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Not to mention the fact that Andre Johsnon is out leaves more guys to key in on Daniels who can thank Jacoby Jones for the increased attention going forward. I mean, can you blame the guy if he has a poor week, though? Would you want to catch passes over the middle with Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs lying in waiting to rip your head off. I’ll pass.
Week 6 Forecast: 4 REC 34 YDS, 0 TD, 5 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Dallas Clark, Greg Olsen
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Week 6 vs New York Giants
I’ve already touched on this game a bit by saying Fitzpatrick will struggle and Freddy Jackson will have the opportunity to flourish, but lets look at a few of the other Bills offensive mainstays, shall we? David Nelson will be looked upon to have a good week, and he may be able to reel in a decent number of catches. Maybe Stevie Johnson, too. That is, if Fitz can get the ball off. Scott Chandler is the main reason why the Bills have been so successful in the red zone this season. Did you know they’re ranked first in the NFL in red zone efficiency? When’s the last time we could say that? One year, no, three, no, ten, oh hell no.. ah I give up. For the Bills No. 1 fantasy scorer this week I’m going to go out on a limb Ryan Lindell. That’s right, I said it.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
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