I know a number of media outlets in WNY will probably talk a lot about Fitzpatrick today…making bad throws or whether the Bills should extend him or not. Yes, whenever bad Fitzpatrick comes up, some fans seem to 2nd guess the QB. It is a great topic because you’ll find people on both sides of the fences and that’s what you want as a press corps. It brings out discussion. Well, I’m not going there because I still think you can build a team around Fitzpatrick, who has done a lot with very little around him. So, he’s no worry for me. To me, it goes to the defense.
Bills 2011 defensive rankings:
- 31st in total defense.
- 29th in passing defense.
- 29th in rushing defense.
- 32nd in sacks.
- 21st in points given up.
Bills 2010 defensive rankings:
- 24th in total defense.
- 3rd in passing defense.
- 32nd in rushing defense.
- 27th in sacks.
- 28th in points given up.
Yes, we all remember how badly we wanted to gouge our eyes out after some of those epic defensive performances from last year. Have we seen any progress? Well, the stats kind of say no. Of course, there is the turnover ratio, which seemed to be what a lot of fans/media members were pointing at for this year. Here’s the deal, you can give up a lot of points, IF your offense is a juggernaut. As of right now, I like our offense, but they are not like the Pats/Packers. They are close, but I just think the defense has to get more stops.
Another thing to look at is that forcing turnovers can be a termed as a lightning in a bottle stat. Last year, the Bills only had 1 interception for the first two months of the season. Yes, that was it.. and we are talking about virtually the same defensive backfield. If you goto 2009, the Bills were 2nd in the league in interceptions. So, what is the difference between now and then? Well, the offense is capitalizing (73 points off turnovers this year), while under Dick/Edwards, it was more along the lines of giving the defense a breather for 3 plays.
Also, the top teams that forced the most turnovers last year had a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Steelers, Bears and Packers defenses will never be confused with ours. I don’t know about you, but when you look at the talent level of the defense, they aren’t jumping off the roster page. The bottom line is that the defense has problems:
1) Personnel hasn’t worked: If you were to look at how the Bills have built their team since Nix took over, it seems like Nix is of the mindset of having this great coach in Chan Gailey, who can make chicken sh#$ into chicken salad with the offense. The core offensive guys are pretty much the holdovers from the Jauron era. As for the defense, I think Nix’s approach is that we need to find better players to help out a coaching staff that is more tuned into helping offensive players out. Just check out Nix’s track record thus far: From rounds 1-3, the Bills have selected 5 defensive players out of 6. Paging Torell Troup or Alex Carrington? Free agency wise, they added Barnett, Merriman, Morrison, Davis and Edwards. Um, yeah, the Andra Davis experiment is over and Kelvin Sheppard should be starting. All the money and draft picks have resulted in the 31st ranked defense.
2) X-factor is a non-factor: I’m not as down on the Shawne Merriman experiment as a lot of people are. To me, it was a low risk, high reward signing for Nix. If the Bills got Shawne Merriman at 85% from his previous form, all would be well. However, I think #56 is playing at 56% of his old form. Merriman needed to have a big role for the Bills this year because their outside linebackers just aren’t good at rushing the passer. The Bills can only get pressure when they blitz and have no shot at pressuring the QB when they only have four down linemen. Jay Skurski from TBN, just tweeted that Merriman is expected to return against the Redskins, so, he still has enough time to get to that 85%. However, with the achilles tendon issue returning, my hope is dwindling down to nothing.
3) Kyle Williams is a HUGE disappointment: Remember when #95 was making every single rotisserie site’s top 5 players of all-time last year? Well, he hasn’t come close to that status this year. I know he didn’t play yesterday, but I can’t think of a play that he has made this year. He’s done nothing and I don’t understand why that is the case. On paper, the Bills front seven is better than last year’s unit. Marcell Dareus is better than Marcus Stroud. Dwan Edwards is healthy. I can’t place my finger on how he’s done nothing really this year. Was he playing for a new contract?
4) I still like a 4-3: Call me crazy, but I still think the Bills are better suited to run a 4-3 defense over the 3-4. As I’ve said 100 times before, in order for the 3-4 to work, you need a surplus of linebackers (See: Steelers defense). I don’t think the Bills are close in that regard. Barnett has been great, but other than him, the linebacking unit hasn’t made enough plays in rushing the passer and covering tight ends. I know the Bills run the hybrid defense and supposedly use different looks, but I don’t have the stats in front of me with what defensive fronts the Bills have used this year. But what I can tell you is that our OLBs are not getting enough pressure on the QB. I wouldn’t mind seeing more of a Edwards-Troup-Williams-Dareus front four than Merriman/Batten/Moats rushing as OLBs. The Bills need to find ways to get pressure on the QB because the OLBs aren’t doing the job.
5) Hot seat for Edwards? Edwards seems to be getting more of the blame than anyone. The Bills are in year two of transforming to a 3-4 defense, and it can take 2 years to reap in the benefits of it. Remember how bad Gregg Williams’ defense was during his first two years in 2001 and 2002? It was awful, until GW brought in Takeo Spikes and Sam Adams. I think the players are the bigger problem in this equation than the scheme. The Bills linebackers just aren’t that good and I think they need another playermaker somewhere along the front seven. Now, just because I’m placing the blame on the players, doesn’t mean that the Bills will do the same. As I wrote earlier, Buddy Nix has used most of his resources to fix the defense and it just hasn’t really clicked.
The Bills are no strangers to firing coordinators over the years. Ed Kilgore use to always joke that coaches would save their bacon by throwing coordinators in Ralph Wilson’s volcano. After the 2001 season, the Bills fired first year offensive coordinator, Mike Sheppard. After 2003 season, they fired Kevin Gilbride after just two seasons, and his offense was great the year before. Turk Schonert got fired before the start of his 2nd year. So, don’t rule it out is all I’m saying. Especially with Wannstedt hanging out.
Final thought: From the start of the season, I haven’t really bought into the whole “Who cares how many yards they gave up. As long as they cause turnovers, we are golden.” I didn’t buy into it because I thought the turnover mojo was going to slow down soon. Sorry, but I would count on Fitz lighting up defenses more so than our D’ forcing four turnovers a game.
The Bills faced a Giants team that is known to turn the ball over a lot and did nothing to stop them. It is getting to the point where if I were married and my wife sat next to me during games, I’d make out with her in order to celebrate the Bills holding the opposition to a punt. In other words, I’m at the point of expecting the Bills defense to give up yards and points. 400 yards allowed in five straight games will do that to you.
The Bills have 13 days to figure their defense out. They are playing a Redskins team that has no offensive players and if they -of all teams- light us up, then we are in serious trouble.
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