Congratulations! You’ve survived the dreaded bye weeks of the NFL.
If your team is still intact and you’ve managed to stay afloat during the most crucial time of the fantasy football season, well done. You wont have to suffer through the embarrassment of a last-place finish like some others are in your league.
But now what do you do?
This year has presented us with a fair share of twists and turns. Maybe you’re stuck at 5-4 with Chris Johnson in your lineup. Maybe you’re cruising at 8-1 because you’ve got Aaron Rodgers on your side.
Either way, the remainder of the season shouldn’t be taken lightly. If you’re in the latter position, you only need a few more wins to lock up a playoff berth. Just be sure to stay active on the waiver wire to gain all the insurance you possibly can. After all, you never know when someone like Rodgers could go down. If he does, don’t let ypur season go down with him because you have no depth in your lineup.
If you’re more towards the middle of the pack, your team is likely lacking that something to put you over the top. You’ll need to find this piece if you’re going to win a championship. Maybe he’s already on your roster, maybe you’ll pick him up off waivers or maybe you should even look into swinging a trade or two. You need to exhaust all options because you don’t have the benefit of coasting into the post season like some of the other teams in your league might.
Last week I did alright for myself, splitting each section at an even .500. It came pretty close for a few players who put together solid efforts — like that of Brent Celek — but ultimately lacked the touchdown that would’ve put them over the top.
Lets take a look at what we have in store this week. Keep in mind that I have not included any players from the Thursday night game featuring the Chargers and Raiders for obvious reasons.
A “stud” constitutes a player I feel is a must-start as he displays a very favorable match-up and is primed to put up a ton of points for that particular week.
A “dud” is a player who I feel is put into starting lineups far too often for that particular week or simply won’t perform up to expectations. In all likelihood, there is a much better option for your starting lineup than a “dud” based upon match-ups for the week.
*All statistics and projections are based off of the standard Yahoo! Sports PPR league scoring system.
Before we get to the Studs of Week Ten, excuse me as I gloat (and bite my tongue) while we look over my predictions from last week.
Week 9 Told’ya So (Studs)
Michael Turner RB ATL
Projected: 136 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Actual: 78 TOTYDS, 1 REC, 1 TD, 11 PTS
Santonio Holmes WR NYJ
Projected: 5 REC 98 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Actual: 3 REC 29 YDS, 1 TD, 10 PTS
A.J. Green WR CIN
Projected: 6 REC 112 YDS, 1 TD, 16 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 83 YDS, 0 TD, 10 PTS
Week 9 Eating Crow (Studs)
Josh Freeman QB TB
Projected: 312 YDS 3 TD 1 INT, 23 PTS
Actual: 281 YDS 1 TD 0 INT, 11 PTS
Freddy Jackson RB BUF
Projected: 139 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Actual: 110 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Brent Celek TE PHI
Projected: 5 REC 88 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Actual: 7 REC 60 YDS, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 20/36, 56%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 9 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Studs
Tim Tebow QB DEN
Macthup vs Kansas City
You can’t talk about surprises this season without talking about Tebow. He was counted down and out at the beginning of the year but has, shocker, proved everyone wrong yet again. Fresh off his most recent shocker against the Raiders last week, Tebow is primed for a repeat against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year. Tebow’s last four games have totalled 15, 20, 11 and 21. I’d expect similar numbers this week as he continues to impress.
Week 10 Forecast: 19/32 213 YDS 3 TD (1 RUSHING) 1 INT, 21 PTS
Honorable mention: Matt Ryan, Christian Ponder
DeMarco Murray RB DAL
Matchup vs Buffalo
He’s facing the Bills, in Dallas, a week after topping the 100-yard mark yet again. Felix Jones will almost certainly be out again. Even if Jones plays, Murray has earned the bulk of the carries. The Bills defese has given up the seventh-most points to oppsoing backs this year. I would think there will be a lot of points scored, and without Miles Austin, the Cowboys will rely heavily on Murray and their ground game.
Week 10 Forecast: 27 CAR 137 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 18 PTS
Ben Tate RB HOU
Matchup vs Tampa Bay
Of course Arian Foster is the unquestioned No. 1 back in Houston. But what a lot of people don’t know is Ben Tate has quietly become a solid fantasy contributor in his own right. Right now, Foster and Tate are on pace to become the first 1,000-yard tandem in years. More importantly, this week the run-first, Andre Johnson-less Texans draw a Bucs run defense that just lost Gerald McCoy for the remainder of the season. Tampa has allowed the third-most points to opposing backs all season and the most in the NFL over the past five weeks. Even more shocking: Tate has more fantasy points this year than Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Shonn Greene and Ceric Benson — and he’s a backup. Things look good if you’re a running back in Houston this week.
Week 10 Forecast: 13 CAR 92 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Honorable mention: Steven Jackson, Michael Bush
Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
Matchup vs Arizona Cardinals
Has anyone seen DeSean Jackson? Yeah, me neither. Jeremy Maclin has all but taken over as Vick’s No. 1 option in Philly as of late and I’d expect that trend to continue. The possession-minded Maclin is far more consistent than Jackson, especially in PPR leagues and faces a Cardinals defense that has been anything but good against the pass this year. I’m expecting an Eagles blowout and at least one TD from Maclin.
Week 10 Forecast: 7 REC 104 YDS, 1 TD, 17 PTS
Percy Harvin WR MIN
Matchup vs Green Bay Packers
Harvin has pretty much been dead all season long. I don’t think anyone misses Brett Favre more right now in the NFL than Harvin, to be honest. But he seems to have found some new life since rookie Christian Ponder took over under center. Fortunately for Harvin owners, this week the Vikings face a second-worst Packers’ pass defense when it comes to allowing opposing receivers to rack up the fantasy points. Not to mention, like most other teams, the Vikes will be playing from behind against the Packers all game. Ponder looked good against them in his first game and I like Harvin to make a few grabs. Start him in a PPR format.
Week 10 Forecast: 6 REC 94 YDS, 1 TD, 15 PTS
Honorable mention: Laurent Robinson, Michael Crabtree
Jermichael Finley TE GB
Matchup vs Minnesota Vikings
Staying in the same game, Finley has been a fairly big disappointment this season at TE. Largely in part due to the Packers’ ability to spread the wealth, Finley has consistently been hit or miss for his owners. He scored the last time the Packers and Vikings squared off and in two games against them in his career Finley has recorded a touchdown in each. I like Finley to continue that trend and come down with at least one catch for a score this week.
Week 10 Forecast: 5 REC 87 YDS, 1 TD, 14 PTS
Honorable mention: Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Pettigrew
Gut Call: Marion Barber RB Chicago Bears
He’s successfully vultured a touchdown from Matt Forte in three of his last four games. He’s the unquestioned goal line option in the Windy City. If you need to take a shot at the flex position and are in a deep league, toss Barber in your lineup. Don’t expect a ton, but I’ve got a feeling he makes it four of five this week at least.
Week 9 Told’ya So(Duds)
Matt Forte RB CHI
Projected: 92 TOTYDS, 4 REC, 0 TD, 9 PTS
Actual: 140 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 9 PTS
DeSean Jackson WR PHI
Projected: 4 REC 67 YDS, 0 TD, 8 PTS
Actual: 2 REC 16 YDS, 0 TD, 1 PT
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR OAK
Projected: 3 REC 46 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 0 REC, 0 TARGETS, 0 TD, 0 PTS
Week 9 Eating Crow(Duds)
Phillip Rivers QB SD
Projected: 279 YDS 1 TD 3 INT, 8 PTS
Actual: 385 YDS 4 TD 3 INT, 28 PTS
Willis McGahee RB DEN
Projected: 78 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Actual: 163 TOTYDS, 0 REC, 2 TD, 22 PTS
Tony Gonzalez TE ATL
Projected: 3 REC 36 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Actual: 4 REC 36 YDS, 1 TD, 11 PTS
Weeks 1-6 Success Rate: 18/36, 50%
Week 7 Success Rate: 2/6, 33%
Week 8 Success Rate: 5/6, 83%
Week 9 Success Rate: 3/6, 50%
Overall (Combined Studs & Duds): Week 6-6, Season 55-52.
Duds
Tom Brady QB NE
Matchup vs New York Jets
Traditionally, Brady has played alright against the Jets. But Brady has been anything but his traditional self lately, and that’s not a good trend to be sporting heading into a matchup against the league’s top-rated pass defense in the red-hot New York Jets. This is a huge game, obviously. These two teams always battle it out and the game should be nice and close. Brady will get 1-2 touchdowns, I’m just simply suggesting not to expect too much from the star in this matchup.
Week 10 Forecast: 32/41 267 YDS 1 TD 2 INT, 9 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick
Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT
Matchup vs Cincinnatti
Like I eluded to earlier, Mendenhall continues to be one of the most unpredictable players in the league this season. Much to the dismay of those of you who selected him in the first round, the Steelers are shifting their offense away from the run for the first time I can remember. The emergence of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will force you to rely on a score to get any decent fantasy value from Mendenhall, and that’s never a good thing to count on.
Week 10 Forecast: 22 CAR 104 TOTYDS, 2 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Roy Helu RB WAS
Matchup vs Miami
After last week’s insane 14-catch performance, everyone seems to be jumping on board with Helu if you’re in a PPR league. One thing everyone is forgetting, though, is that he still plays for the Redskins. Shannahan has made his career on his running backs coming out of nowhere, only to disappear when he decides to go with a different option the following week. I wouldn’t expect anything near what Helu did last week as Miami’s defense is actually very good against the run, giving up the third-least points to backs this season.
Week 10 Forecast: 11 CAR 65 TOTYDS, 3 REC, 0 TD, 7 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Brandon Jacobs, James Starks
Dez Bryant WR DAL
Matchup vs Buffalo
I noted earlier that I think this game will be high scoring. I also said Austin, along with Jones, are expected to miss the game due to injury. You’d think that would all bode well for Bryant, right? Wrong. The second-year receiver has failed to live up to his big mouth this year and his owners have been forced to rely on his rare big play to get them any sort of fantasy value out of him. I like Laurent Robinson a lot as the possession guy in this game, so start him stead of Bryant.
Week 10 Forecast: 3 REC 41 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Reggie Wayne WR IND
Matchup vs Jacksonville
What a disaster of a season it has been for Wayne and the Colts. At this point, you may even want to consider dropping Wayne, because Manning ins’t making his way back anytime soon. He doesn’t have the best schedule coming up, either, starting this week against Jacksonville who has played very well against the pass. If you have better options, which you likely do, put them in your lineup in favor of Wayne.
Week 10 Forecast: 4 REC 52 YDS, 0 TD, 6 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Hakeem Nicks, Julio Jones
Vernon Davis TE SF
Matchup vs New York Giants
One of the strange dark spots on the otherwise incredible 49ers team this season. Davis has been a huge fantasy bust at TE, especially after his solid output last year. In his last three games, Davis as totalled a whopping four fantasy points combined. They’re not usuing him, so neither should you.
Week 10 Forecast: 3 REC 34 YDS, 0 TD, 4 PTS
Not-so-honorable mentions: Anthony Fasano, Ben Watson
Gut Call: Ray Rice RB Baltimore Ravens
Other than LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice has been the best bang-for-your-buck running back this season in PPR format leagues. His consistent play is something every fantasy owner wants on their team. This week, though, Rice goes up against a Seattle defense that is top-five when it comes to stopping the run. The Seahawks are an easy team to beat through the air, so Rice may rack up the receptions, but I just get the feeling he wont put up the numbers we’ve been accustomed to seeing from him this season.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Meter: Bills vs Dallas Cowboys
I’ve touched on the Bills latest game a bit so far but lets dig a little deeper. Felix Jones and Miles Austin are both out for the game, which means the Cowboys will require a few of their lesser names to step up. The Cowboys are a team that likes to bring the heat from blitzes, so I think Fitzpatrick will be stuck under pressure all day long. The Cowboys’ pass defense isn’t all that great, but it’s the fact that Fitz wont have much time to throw that worries me. Stevie Johnson is due for a big game, so you know the Bills are looking for him to come through. But that leads me to Fred Jackson for the second week in a row. Last week Gailey failed to heed my advice and for whatever reason, ignored Freddy and rushing the ball all together while the game was still close. This week my advice remains the same. The Bills will need to run the ball effectively against the Rob Ryan-coached defense that will likely take a few pointers from Rex’s gameplan last week. I think Jackson will break out here and have a touchdown or two.
Disagree with something I said? Well, let me hear it in the comment box! Better yet, follow me on Twitter if you seek answers to any additional fantasy questions you may have @THWGoldSchlager.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
