The first couple years coming out of the NHL lockout might have been my favorite time ever as a Sabres fan. There were some other good times/years in my fandom, such as the May Day goal and the excitement of Lafontaine and Mogilny, and of course the 98 Cup run, but there were things that overshadowed those days. Finally getting out of the 1st round in ‘93 was great, but the sweep in the next round vs. the Canadiens and the injuries to our stars took some wind out of the sails. And ’98 was fantastic, except for the fact that I was in Alabama with no Center Ice package and saw 10 games total for the year. Plus the Brett Hull moment overshadows the joy for the most part when I remember that year and time.
But 2005-2007 brought my love for the Sabres to a zenith. The game came back with great energy, with new rules emphasizing offense and the refs were actually enforcing the league’s mandate for a short time. And the Sabres seemed built for the “new NHL” with speed and a high-octane offense. I remember thinking if we could keep together our core of skilled veterans and the extremely impressive group of young talent from Rochester, we could have a dynasty in the making.
We all know what happened on July 1, 2007. If you don’t, shoot Bucky Gleason an email and he’ll let you know. The day was simply the final evaporation of the veteran nucleus that began with the departures of Jay Mckee, J.P. Dumont, and Mike Grier the previous offseason. Everyone was depressed in the WNY hockey world, including me.
But a couple weeks later, after a brief scare of a huge contract offer from Edmonton to Thomas Vanek, the Sabres matched the offer sheet and wrapped up the most promising player of the Rochester group. Criticism continued to fly in the direction of GM Darcy Regier, Team President Larry Quinn and Owner Tom Golisano for that delay that created the situation. I found my mood lightened however. I had all kinds of positive thoughts:
“The Sabres have a great young core.”
“Vanek, Roy and after they’re re-signed, Miller and Pominville, will lead us to the Promised Land.”
“It’s their time.”
“We’ll show Drury, Briere and all the negative ninnies at The Buffalo News!”
“Darcy did the right thing.”
“The future is bright.”
Well, so much for that. Today is Wednesday, January 11th, 2012, a little over four and half years removed from that tumultuous summer. And I can honestly say that this Sabres “core” is an abject failure.
Thomas Vanek. Derek Roy. Paul Gaustad. Ryan Miller. Drew Stafford. All these players received decent to sizable contract extensions from 2007 to 2011, and the majority of them have underachieved. First off, individual evaluations will provide helpful here. Disclaimer, though – I’m leaving off the likes of Tim Connolly and Jochen Hecht since they’re not part of the Rochester gang.
Thomas Vanek – Extended in 2007, 7 years for 50 Million (7,142,857 Cap Hit)
I chose to go in chronological order of the extensions, and it just works out that we start off with the one player who has mostly lived up to his billing. Thomas, when on top of his game, is a top 10 forward in the league. He’s basically carrying the 2011-2012 squad on his back right now. He plays injured, does the dirty work in front of the net, and is the one offensive weapon on the Sabres that teams have to game plan around. He’s a gifted winger that suffers due to the lack of talent around him. Vanek has averaged 34 goals and 64 points since entering the league, never scoring less than 25 (which happened in his up and down rookie year). This season he’s on pace for 38 goals and 80 points.
These stats aren’t Crosby or Ovechkin level, but in a league in which 50 goal seasons are minimal, consistently crossing the 30 threshold without much help is impressive. Franchise wise, he’s 8th all time with 223 career goals, having just passed Rene Robert in a much shorter amount of games.
But of all the contracts you’ll see here, the 50 million dollars given to Vanek does stick out. We all know that without Edmonton’s bold move back in 07, Regier would have probably signed him to a more reasonable amount, probably over 4 or 5 years long. Has Thomas’ performance merited such elite play? I still say “probably” yes. 7 million a year seemed huge to us back then, but today Vanek doesn’t even crack the top 15 in salary. Not bad for the production.
The one alarming part is that Vanek is the lone bright spot on this list and I still had to think long and hard on whether his payday was worth it. But back then it was a no-brainer after having our roster gutted, and I have no problems building a team with #26.
Derek Roy – Extended in 2007, 6 years for 24 Million (4,000,000 Cap Hit)
If you just focused on the stats prior to this season, you’d say Derek has been a bargain for his price. Prior to 2010, he scored 32, 28, and 26 goals to go along with 81, 70, and 69 points after re-signing with the Sabres. Nice bang for the buck there. And then last season, he looked even better with a point per game pace before his season ending injury.
But with D. Roy, it’s not just about decent production. He’s probably the most derided Sabre over the last several years with all due respect to Connolly. His laziness, diving, and lack of intensity are maddening. He has the skill but not the character or drive to be a much better player.
It’s frustrating as Roy seemed to have a breakthrough last season. His effort was at a previously unseen level and there was a maturity to his game that gave a lot of hope for continued development. But this season, he’s regressed both in the intangibles and now production as well (on pace for just 48 points). He’s turned back into “Bad Derek” as my wife calls it. He’s the name most fans will float out there in hopeful trade rumors, but at this point you have to wonder if his value has plummeted too much to even be a decent bargaining chip.
My evaluation on Roy is two-fold, one good and one bad. He’s lived up to his contract fine on the value side of things, but his lack of progression in becoming that true #1 center is a big failing. It’s a huge mistake on the part of Regier for projecting him as a suitable Briere replacement when Roy was at best always going to be just an decent #2 guy.
Paul Gaustad – Extended in 2008, 4 years for 9.2 million (2,300,000 Cap Hit)
It’s not all that applicable to list offensive stats in a review of Gaustad. He’s never topped 12 goals a season in his NHL career and isn’t relied on to be a top guy on the score sheet. However, he’s developed into one of the better face off men in the league, which is probably the one concrete area you can measure Goose with. He’s also strong on the PK and a leader who more often than not will lead by voice and action. Gaustad also is expected to be a physical force that makes the opposition pay with his grinding style.
It’s hard to say two million is an overpayment for a player in today’s hockey economics, but I’ve just expected more from Paul. I simply feel that in the area of being a aggressive, powerful forward he’s been terribly inconsistent. In his role, Gaustad should be laying on the hurt shift in and shift out and it hasn’t happened. There are stretches when he’s invisible on the ice and that shouldn’t occur with a big guy. Playing on a generally soft team, players like Gaustad should stick out. And he hasn’t.
Ryan Miller – Extended in 2008, 5 years for 31.25 million (6,250,000 Cap Hit)
If I were writing this in the 1st half of 2010, I’d be proclaiming with pride how lucky are to have #30. He was the All-American hero of the Olympics and the Vezina trophy winner for most outstanding goalie in the NHL. He was playing like the best goaltender in the world, stealing games that the Sabres had no right to even be in.
That was then. And this is now. Unfortunately. Miller’s play has plummeted to the point of having stats that aren’t even in the top 30 league wide. Once the Zen-like leader of the young Sabres, he often comes across now as ill-tempered and defensive with the media.
And despite his fantastic play of 2009-2010 he was outdueled in the playoffs by Tuukka Rask of the Bruins, who is now the backup to Tim Thomas. Even last year, while playing much better after January and in the series vs. Philly, he couldn’t quite push the team to new heights. The games the Sabres won, he was terrific, but the soft goals let in during the 1st three losses were costly.
Miller is paid like a top 5 goaltender. How often has he played like one? Besides the remarkable season already referenced here, he hasn’t put together a full year of top notch play since the captains left. His goals against average has traditionally revolved around 2.50, and while this isn’t terrible, it also isn’t upper echelon. Like the Quarterbacks of the NFL, whether unfair or not, much more is expected of the goalies. And Miller has fallen short.
Jason Pominville – Extended in 2008, 5 years for 26.50 million (5,300,000 Cap Hit)
Pommers is another hard one to pass judgment on. He’s been consistent, with over 20 goals each year starting in 2006-2007. He’s arguably the team’s best penalty killer and the two times last season he was hurt the team fell apart. Jason’s now the captain, a solid leader, and this year might turn out to be his best of all with him blossoming with Vanek on the 1st line. He’s on pace for 28 goals and 86 points, which would be his best season since 06-07.
But 5.3 million a year? It’s hard to rationalize Pominville being worth that money prior to this season. I love that he has the intangibles that Roy does not, but he’s being paid to be a star, a difference maker on the score sheet. Until this season, I don’t think he achieved those levels. Jason is a nice player, but I’m not sure he’s a winner. Harsh, I know, but can you refute it?
This is basically a Regier panic contract, the fear of 7/1/07 making him overpay. If we were the Red Wings, Pominville would make 3 million and be a decent 2nd line winger. But it’s the Sabres and we’ve expected too much of him.
Drew Stafford – Extended in 2011, 4 years for 16 million (4,000,000 Cap Hit)
I almost didn’t include Drew here as he wasn’t part of this group that played in Rochester during the lockout. But he’s indeed a part of the young core. I’ll lump Stafford in with Roy as the most disappointing players on the roster. If you’ve read my work on Buffalo Wins on a consistent basis, I’ve documented how I embraced Stafford as my new favorite player in 07 after Drury left. He flashed nice potential in limited time after his initial call up, but all that has proven a false hope. Stafford traditionally has been disinterested, unmotivated and unwilling to consistently use his physical gifts. With the size and abilities to be a genuine power forward, Staffy should be driving to the net and exerting his will each shift. But way too often he shies away from the difficult spots (unlike Vanek) and plays the perimeter game.
Last year was to be Drew’s breakthrough season. He broke the 30 goal mark and appeared to put aside his aloof, guitar hero persona and be a serious hockey player. But that too now looks like a sham, a money grab in his contract year as old Stafford is back with a vengeance now after his nice payday.
Even with the apparent poor valuation by Regier of Ville Leino, I worry about Stafford’s contract more. Leino elevated his play for the Flyers in the playoffs for two consecutive seasons while Stafford elevated his play in the regular season just one time before disappearing in the spring. Big thumbs down on this player and his contract.
Before the season started I said that while the new additions of Regehr, Ehrhoff and Leino made for excitement, the team would sink or swim based on the play of the core. Lindy Ruff agreed with this by handing out letters to all these players. And the theory has proven depressingly correct – with just Vanek and Pominville playing solid, the season is derailing. This is why the calls for trades are so loud; fans know that the building of this team has been flawed and the group needs to be blown up.
And while individual evaluations are important, what’s even more pivotal is how these players gel together as a unit. We’ve all cheered for or against teams that have limited talent but do pretty well due to team work and chemistry. The 1998 Sabres come to mind (didn’t hurt having Mr. Hasek of course). Our current group of Sabres has been trying for several years to put it all together to no avail. Since the captains left and passed on the baton, the Sabres have qualified for the playoffs 2 out of 4 seasons and they were eliminated in the 1st round both times they made it. And without a major push the second half of this year, we can chalk up a third year with no postseason play.
Will dumping some of these players change things for the better? It can’t hurt. I admire a team like the Flyers that can dump two out of their top three centers in a shakeup, taking a big risk but remaining competitive in the process. It’s worth a try for our team.
I’ll leave you with a somewhat positive thought. There was another signing to speak of that took place this summer: the Sabres gave former Calder trophy winner, Tyler Myers, a seven year extension. One can only hope that he, along with his compatriots in the Sabres “new core” (Gerbe, Ennis, Enroth, Kassian, McNabb, etc.) can find more success than the failed group that preceded them.
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