Small hands and game manager.
That's all I think of when Alex Smith comes to mind.
I don't exactly think those two traits are compliments. The small hands stuff comes from Tony Kornheiser, who used to say that and it added to his fumbling problem early in his career. The poor guy fumbled 15 times during the first three years of his career, 9 of them coming his rookie year. To say someone has small hands is pretty funny. I don't think you want anyone saying that to you. I mean, if big feet means big dick, what the hell does small hands mean? Um, nevermind.
Then you get to the game manager comment. It is a compliment wrapped into an insult. If you are a game manager, it pretty much means not to win or lose the game. Make some throws, but above all, don't mess up. Without looking at the stats, that's how I feel about Smith the last two years. A classic game manager who had tons of talent around him and let those guys win the game for him. It is pretty much the reason he lost his job to Kaepernick because he was the better QB.
As of right now, Smith is under contract with the 49ers and even though they will probably try and trade him, no one is taking his contract of 8.5 million bucks and the 49ers paying that much for a backup is insane. They will probably cut him. And since we love castaways and famous people in Buffalo (That's more of a slight than a compliment), Alex Smith as your Bills' starting QB isn't too far fetched.
This piece is going to be your guide to whether you want him or not. I'm about to put my research cap on and as it stands, I'm not so sure I want him. Hopefully, after my research is concluded, I will have a better answer.
Pros
–Alex Smith is 19-5 in his last 24 starts. Ryan Fitzpatrick never won that many games while playing here in Buffalo. Tom Brady has as many losses in his last 24 starts. The guy has won. Plain and simple. He's beaten teams like the Giants, Packers, Saints and Pittsburgh over that time. He's been the signal caller for the 49ers in high pressure situations like the playoffs and he helped execute the 49ers high powered offense last year.
–We can all agree the Bills have been through hell over the last 13 years. They are losers who have been through the darkness and haven't been able to claw their way out of the abyss. But Alex Smith has. He's gone from a bust to a starting QB who will probably be in demand this offseason. He's a guy who has battled more adversity than any other QB I can think of when it comes to his career being resurrected. A QB normally doesn't go form the shitter to prominence after his 6th year, especially someone who was as bad as Smith. You want to go from being losers to winners? Sometimes, it takes one to know one. He knows what it is like to be on the losing side of an organization and guide his team to respectability and then some. Maybe he can lead the Bills out of the darkness, not just on the football field, but in the locker room. He knows what it is like to go from a loser to a winner. The Bills do not.
–I don't how much you can put into QB ratings, as I tend to think their is some BS to it (Rob Johnson had a nice QB rating). But there is some validity to it. Alex Smith has a QB rating of 97.4 in the last two seasons. He has a QB rating over 90 in 14 of his last 24 starts. He has only thrown 10 interceptions and 30 touchdowns in those games. That's a hell of a TD/INT ratio. His completion percentage is over 65% and has gone in the 70 percent tile in six games. The guy doesn't make mistakes.
— I don't know exactly what sort of offense Marrone and Hackett plan on running. I know they had the K-Gun at Cuse and if you go by what the Saints offense has been predicated around, it is based on the short passing game as Drew Brees has always completed a high percentage of passes. I'm not trying to say Smith can be the next Brees, but if you just look at their physical traits and some of their stats, they tend to be similar. Both guys have quick releases. Smith completed 79% of his passes from zero to 10 yards through the air last year. Both guys have similar arm strength. Both guys don't seem to turn the ball over all that much. If the Bills plan on running a quick release west coast style of offense, Smith is the guy for that.
Cons
–Alex Smith was fucken terrible during the first 6 years of his career. He was Ryan Leaf without the dickhead attitude. Here is his record by seasons before Jim Harbaugh came along: 2-7, 7-9, 2-5, DNP, 5-6, 3-8. That sounds a lot like the Bills' QBs records. Smith also has battled injuries, as he's only started 16 games twice in his career while missing anywhere between 5-9 games a year. He also has a bit of a sack problem. He was dropped 44 times in 2011. What makes the stat more alarming is he was sacked once every 10 drop backs. By comparison, Fitzpatrick was dropped once every 17 throws, while Kaepernick was sacked once every 14 drop backs. Also, during his bad years, he completed less than 60% of his passes in 29 of his 54 games. Bottom line: He's been more bad than he's been good during his career.
—If Alex Smith comes here, it sure as hell won't look like San Fran. You can keep playing the whole "Wait-and-see approach", but we already know what we saw in San Fran. A team that is loaded from top to bottom with 15 former 1st round picks. They are stacked. The Bills aren't close to that, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Was Smith's turnaround more about him or was it about the situation he was in with Harbaugh and a plethora of offensive weapons? I still think if Fitzpatrick was the QB for the 49ers, he'd win about 10 games there. That's how deep they are. The Bills have won 14 games since 2010. The 49ers won 14 games this past season. Any questions?
—There is a part of me that thinks Alex Smith is overrated. Consider this: In his career, the guy has only three 300-yard performances. 3!! That's pretty bad. Only one of them came during the 49ers run the last two years and that was against the Bills. The best game Smith played was probably against the Saints in the playoffs last year, where he out-dueled Drew Brees for 299 yards and 3 tds. Overall, he doesn't turn the ball over and does complete a high percentage of passes, except he never seems to throw the ball a lot. In the last two seasons, Smith has attempted 30 passes or fewer 13 times in games. Tom Brady has thrown fewer than 30 passes once in the last two seasons. Even though Smith is great in the short passing game, he's kind of average with the deep ball. Last year, he hit on only 8 of 17 passes thrown 30 yards or more through the air. In 2011, he was 5 of 15. The guy has never been a great deep thrower.
Final word: Do I want Alex Smith here? I…I…I don't know. At best, he'd be a bridge guy to the next guy…and hearing that makes me kind of meh. We've had the bridge guy forever it seems like. Alex Smith is not a franchise QB. He's average to good. He's a guy that seems to need to be placed in a perfect situation. This is not. I just want to set my horizons a little hirer. If they sign him, they better look to draft a QB within the first three rounds. Screw the best player available crap.Select the best QB available in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Buddy Nix has said it multiple times, the time is now to draft a QB. Sure, Smith gives them a better chance to go 10-6,, but on this date, I'm just over thriving for getting in instead of making an impact.
In other words, yes, they have my permission to sign him, but they better have a contingency plan for the future or a much better team around him at the start of 2013.
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