A major concern entering the 2013 season was that this up-tempo offense would go three and out too often and wear their own defense out, instead of that of their opponents. However, the Bills have only gone three and out just five times. The league average so far this season is 5.78 three and out drives per team. While the Bills haven’t been going three and out as often as we feared, they are still punting slightly more than the average team. Lastly, the Patriots game could have been won if they converted just one more first down on their final drive.
Are the Bills failing too often on third down?
The Bills are converting 40.7% of their third downs into first downs. That may not sound like much, but it’s just a touch better than the current 2013 NFL average of 39.7%. The average over the past ten full seasons has hovered right around 38.5%. Are the Bills better than average on third down? Will they regress to the mean?
Currently the Bills are just about average on third down and have gotten a little unlucky by failing to convert in high leverage situations. If anything, their third down average may regress a bit more to the truer NFL mean from the past ten years, because thirteen of their 27 third downs (48.1%) have come with fewer than five yards to go. Meanwhile, the average team in the NFL had fewer than five yards to go on third down just 34.9% of the time. Can they continue to get third and short situations so much more than a team normally does throughout a whole season?
The Bills have been really good on first down. Fifth best in the NFL so far, gaining an average of 6.56 yards per play. That’s largely thanks to a great running game, because the Bills have run the ball the second most on first down (38 times, behind only Seattle). Clearly they are letting their young quarterback ease into the season and his career in the NFL, but opposing defenses are sure to pick up on this trend soon. Once they do, the average 3.44 yards needed on second and third down to keep a drive moving could increase and their third down conversion rate could decrease.
That may already be the case in the fourth quarter. The Bills have only had four third downs in the fourth quarter through two games and none have been for a first down. Buffalo is one of just three teams who have yet to convert a third down in the fourth quarter (Kansas City and Dallas are the other two). The inability to move the chains on third down is a bit troubling.
The Bills attempted passes on all four of those fourth quarter third downs. That’s mostly because they had more than five yards to go in three of those situations (we all know that 3rd and 1 Stevie drop). On those four attempts, Manuel has just one completion. Luckily, Manuel has a 61.9% completion rate on all third down passes and this fourth quarter issue could be a small sample size problem. This will be something to watch on Sunday.
While Buffalo’s fourth quarter third down troubles might have cost them the New England game, it shouldn’t be a true cause for concern just yet. Manuel proved last weekend that he doesn’t have issues performing in clutch moments and the team overall does well to avoid third downs in general (eight first downs earned on either first or second down in 24 fourth quarter chances). Their third down production should remain at about its current level throughout the rest of the season, and they will eventually start clicking on third down in the fourth quarter.
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