(This is my 2nd review of the Bills season. It is the happy one, but if you missed the slice your wrist one, check it out.)
The first four weeks of the Bills season may have been the worst thing to happen to us.
After the heart-pounding win over the Carolina Panthers , I got a taste of what it would be like to be a winner. After beating the reigning World Champions – something that hasn't been done by the Bills since 1996! – I wanted season tickets. I said coming into this season that everything was about individual progress, not team wins or losses.
It was a rebuilding year and we should know the drill by now.
I kept hammering that I would totally take a 5-11 year if EJ Manuel was good. If the Bills had a year like the Panthers did in 2011, when they went stunk as a team, but their QB was a rookie god, I'd be happy. However, after they were 2-2 and had almost beat the Pats in the season opener, that was all I needed! Enough progress was made. Let's see what we can do! My lowered expectations were out the window. I just became a fan wanting these kids to become adults too quickly.
I stopped looking at the big picture and focused on this season, right here and right now. However, that's why season reviews are great. You take a break. You do your research and some thinking. You got away from the moment and cooler heads start prevailing. 6-10 sucks, but it wasn't all bad.
2013 was a season of progress, especially in certain areas, for the Bills. The defense got way better. They have a younger front office. They had a young, decent group of rookies. Guys who we hated – Aaron Williams and Leodis McKelvin – came into their own. Kiko Alonso got a jersey owner BJs. They had a lot of close, fun games.
So, while 14 years of missing the playoffs has taught us we can't have good things or be too optimistic about the Bills future, we can still be fans of the team. The Bills did some good things that made us enjoy being Bills fans. Really. They did!
If you were to tell me before the season that the Bills would break their team sack record and be in the top 5 in the league in sacks and turnovers, I'd take that. If you told me the Bills would be 2nd in the league in rushing? Ditto. If you told me they'd beat the Panthers and Ravens and play close in all of their games except Tampa/Pittsburgh, I'd take that as well.
I know it hurts still, but this is why we have happy reviews! So sit back and take copious notes. This article will save the life of at least one member of the #Billsmafia!
5) Youth is being served – I can't tell you how much I hate the narrative of "Are things different with the Bills?" It is such crap. After the Bills beat the Panthers, that question started coming up. It is a question that gets asked – in a happy if misguided way – every time they show any progress. Then the question gets got brought up after the team loses to the Falcons but in a negative way!
It is stupid because it is impossible to predict if things are really different in a rebuilding year. We won't know if things are different until next year… at least. When that question got asked in 2010 or 2006 or 2005 or 2001, it was silly because the answer didn't come until we realized that Dick Jauron, Gregg Williams, Chan Gailey, and Mike Mularkey were idiots. It is a marathon, not a sprint.
I do realize that our football past haunts us when it comes to thinking things are never going to be different. So if you ask me how I can tell you things MAY be different, I'd say you gotta look at the kids. Hey, when you are rebuilding, that's where you have to start.
The Bills currently only have 5 players (Fred Jackson, Kyle Williams, Brian Moorman, Erik Pears, and Jim Leonard) who are 30 or older. Only two of those players were starters. In 2010, that number was at 11. In 2006 and 2005, that number was at 8. Also, during those years, I didn't really feel that good about the youth on the team. I mean, Milloy, Adams, Vincent, Moulds, Fletcher, Stroud, and Spikes were vets. Which young guys stood out? Lee Evans? JP Los..um, yuk. Lynch and McGahee? We had crappy picks like Whitner, Josh Reed, Mike Williams, Aaron Maybin, McKelvin (don't forget he was awful before this year) and James Hardy.
With this year's team, you have to feel solid (crossing fingers) about EJ Manuel, the impact of rookie WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, CJ Spiller, Cordy Glenn, Kiko Alonso, Marcell Dareus, Jairus Byrd (just re-sign him, you assholes!), Stephon Gilmore (played better down the stretch), Aaron Williams, and Leodis McKelvin. There's potential here and these guys have showed promise at different stretches. If half of them can keep it up, we will be in good shape for the future.
4) 6-10? More like 10-6 – Damn. I hate playing the "What if?" game. It just feels like we do this every year. Pick just one of the 14 years of losing to find a bunch of games where we cursed the heavens while rotting in hell:
A) 2002 – Bills lost two games they should have won against the Jets (Chad Morton game – Hope that dude is homeless somewhere) and the Chiefs. Win those games and we win the division.
B) 2004 – The Bills started 0-4 and could have easily gone 2-2 or 3-1. Ernest Wilford catching a last second TD with like, 6 Bills around him still haunts my dreams. The Jets game-winning FG with a few seconds left. Travis Henry getting stuffed at the goal line against Oakland. Bledsoe's naked bootleg gone wrong against New England. If the Bills win one of those games, we don't even need the damn season finale against Pittsburgh.
C) 2006 – Bills lose to the Pats by 2 points in the opener. Bills out-gain the Jets by something like 200 yards but still lose. Lose to the Colts by just one point. Lost to Vince Young and the Titans by three points. The Bills could have very easily been a 10-win team that season.
D) 2008 – JP Losman fumbling against the Jets when trying to run out the clock. Rian Lindell missing the game-winning FG against Cleveland. Had a 10 point league against Miami in the 2nd half and blew it. Could have easily gone 10-6.
E) 2010 – The Stevie Johnson drop against Pittsburgh. Shawn Nelson fumbling against Baltimore. Trent Edwards being wretched in a 5-point loss against Miami in the opener. Losing in OT against KC. Bills were 0-3 in OT games that season.
ENOUGH!!! Damn. This is supposed to be a happy piece and now I'm just pissed off! Anyway, this year had games like those years.
What if Stevie Johnson and Scott Chandler don't fumble against Atlanta? What if Stevie Johnson doesn't drop that 3rd-down pass against NE in the opener? What if Stephon Gilmore started over Justin Rogers against the Jets in NY? What if EJ Manuel doesn't get hurt against the Browns? What if Thad Lewis or EJ Manuel start against KC? If those things work for the Bills, they could easily be 10-6 and playing this weekend. The KC game is the worst of the bunch. You get over 400 yards in offense while the opposition just gets over 200 and you still lose because Jeff Tuel stunk. DAMN YOU! Hopefully, the Bills can learn from these experiences and win those close games next year.
3) Running game still strong – Yes, it was probably stupid for people to think CJ Spiller would get over 2,000 yards based on last year's numbers. As I said, if you run the football more, your average yards per carry (YPC) are bound to go down and that's really what happened with the Bills running game this season. Don't get me wrong, I'm cool as a cucumber with the numbers being what they are, but the laws of football math work this way. The Bills did exactly the opposite of what fans bitched about last year with Chan Gailey. They ran the ball more.
The Bills were #1 in runs by 37 attempts over 2nd place, which is a pretty big disparity. 2nd place and 8th place were separated by just 28 carries. The Bills had the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFL, but their YPC dropped to 14th in the NFL with 4.2 yards a carry. Last year they were 4th with 5.0 YPC.
Why the drop?
I think Spiller's health was a factor. It was clear in a few games that he didn't have that breakaway speed like last year. (See his TD against Cleveland where his leg was about to fall out at the end.) The loss of Andy Levitre hurt. This year, Levitre was rated by PFF as having the 10th best run blocking for guards in the NFL. Kraig Urbik was the team's best run blocking guard and he was ranked 32nd in the NFL. Don't even ask about Legursky and Brown. Also, I think defenses respected Fitz's throwing ability a little more than the 3-headed monster of Tuelthadiusmanuel.
However, the Bills did well even with those shortcomings. They still had 10 games in which they rushed for over 130 yards. Last year that number was at nine. In 2012, the Bills had over 160 yards rushing in six games, while this year the number was also at six. So, as you can see, there wasn't much of a difference. In fact, when the Bills running backs were finally healthy, they finished the season strong, rushing 195, 198, 203, and 169 yards in 4 of their last 5 games.
As for the YPC stuff, let's be honest, it is more about CJ Spiller. When we started getting hard-ons for the stat last year, it was because of him, not Fred Jackson. Jackson averaged only 3.8 yards a carry last year while CJ was at 6 yards. Again, I think health and the amount of carries CJ got this year had a lot to do with the fall in that area. Oh, and 4.6 isn't too bad, BTW.
Spiller still had six games this season where he rushed for over 5 yards a carry. Of the running backs who gained over 900 yards rushing this year, CJ Spiller still had the the 5th best YPC average, and he was 11th overall in the league. And, yes, while CJ seemed to spill a lot of his runs to the outside, he still averaged 5.8 yards a carry up the middle and most of his carries came up the midsection of the line.
Oh, and then there's Fred Jackson! I thought this was going to be Fred's swan song as CJ would get all the carries, but because of Fred's own performance and CJ's injury history, he came on. He ran tough between the tackles and finished with a career high in TD runs. Against two teams in the top 11 in rush defense (Panthers/Ravens) the Bills had over 350 yards on the ground! I'm still waiting for both Fred and CJ to have 100-yard performances in the same game
Next year, if both guys can stay healthy and the Bills are still committed to the run like they were this year, they could both get 1,000 yards rushing. That would be cooler and more realistic than 2,000 yards for CJ.
2) Defense reborn – My expectations for the Bills defense was pretty much dead on arrival prior to the season. I just kept thinking the Bills had too many moving parts with such a new complex system. Plus, Aaron Williams as a starting safety to go along with Leodis McKelvin as your #2 CB and Stephon Gilmore and Byrd out?? UGH! Oh, and the defense only had about 5 years worth of baggage of being the cream of the shit. I don't think I have to go down memory lane, right?
Well, as I wrote in my "World is ending" piece, this defense looked like the "Steel Curtain" by comparison. Consider that the Bills, with the same front four and secondary for the most part, had 21 more sacks this year than last year. The Bills had more sacks this season than they had in 2010 and 2011 combined! They were also 2nd in INTs, which is pretty impressive when you consider how much time Gilmore and Byrd missed this season. They finally stopped the bleeding when it came to defending the TE position. They gave up 3.7 catches for 38.3 yards – best in the league – and .5 touchdowns a game against TEs.
For the most part, every player improved his game. Dareus and Kyle Williams were beasts up front and had 19 sacks between them, which was tops for any defensive tackle duo. Jerry Hughes had more sacks this year than he had for his career in Indy. Hell, he was 3rd on the team with 10 sacks, which if you take away Kyle and Mario's years, would be the most the Bills have had by one player since Aaron Schobel in 2009. Speaking of Mario Williams, he looked pretty good without all the BS that was thrown at him last year by lamestreamers and he won us a few games. Mario is a good player. Is he Bruce Smith? No. No one is. But he gets sacks in bunches, he's helped a lot of defensive players reach career years this season, and I think he did his part.
Kiko Alonso was a godsend at MLB. Yes, he came back down to Earth after his awesome start, but he still made a lot of nice plays. His 56 stops were the 9th most by ILBs in the league. He also gave up just 237 yards passing and just 6.6 yards per catch. The guy was "the man" in coverage.
For crap sakes, I don't even hate Aaron Williams or Leodis McKelvin anymore. I could keep going on about the Bills' defense and the job Mike Pettine did with this team. Yes, they have some things they need to take care of in the rush defense and consistency department, but if they bring everyone back without contract issues or preseason injuries, they can be that much better next season. The defense is still very young and outside of Kyle Williams and Arthur Moats, every starter was either a 1st or 2nd round pick. The talent is there. I think the sky is the limit for them as long as the front office doesn't blow it.
1) This has to end soon, right? – Teams just don't go 14 years without making the playoffs, right? For whatever reason, the football gods have cursed us. Maybe they are doing to us what they did to Bills fans from like 1968-1987, when the team made the playoffs just three times and won just one playoff game. Of course, 1988 came and it was epic for the next 12 years. Maybe the darkness is finally ending and the good times are coming. That's just how football evolution works, right?
I can't foresee the Bills going another 14 or 10 or even 5 years without the playoffs. It just doesn't happen. I could see the Bills moving to Toronto in 10 years before I see the franchise not making the playoffs within the next 5 years. Just…the laws of football averages has to balance out eventually. IT HAS TO END SOON!!! Just be good! Be 10-6! The AFC seems to be in transition right now and Tom Brady and Peyton Manning can't play forever, right? This is the time to make your move!
The Bills have some nice pieces. If they can get EJ Manuel to fricken Andy Dalton status, we can be a 10-6 team. Yes, I want a franchise guy, but I'll take 10-6 with a 23 TD, 3,500-yard performance. At this point, that would put a giant smile on my face.
Doug Whaley had a nice 1st season at the helm for the Bills. The Bills got younger, they scored in two decent trades for Hughes and Thad Lewis, and based on what we saw from the rookies, the draft was good. Of course, evolution needs to take place and they have to get better in all facets. I think the foundation is set, but now they have to build on it.
The conclusion of the 1st year of any new Bills football regime usually leaves us with a lot of optimism because we are starting from the pit of despair. People were optimistic after 2006, 2001 and 2010 when Gailey, Williams, and Jauron finished their first years here because everyone hated the previous regime with the wrath of 7 Hells.
It has been the 2nd or in some cases, 3rd stanza which has seen these guys fall on their face. Just build, folks. Don't start getting rid of Stevie, CJ, or Byrd unless you have a viable option to replace them. You owe that to us. You owe Buffalo a winner. Keep your good players and keep building! I don't need to hear Russ Brandon's cliches to feel good about them. The best PR is showing it on the field.
The tracks are being set and the train has a pathway. This is a good start, but everyone knows, it is how you finish that matters.
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