After last week’s piece asking whether the Bills are for real or not (I’m saying 8-8), I thought it would be helpful for me to come up with a few ways the Bills might turn that 8-8 record into a 10-6 march. I’ll admit, I’m excited about November. The last two times the Bills were 5-3 when heading into the 2nd half, they had just lost 3 out of 4 games (2008) and 2 out of 3 games (20011). This time around, the Bills have won 3 out of their last 4 games so they aren’t going in to the second half ass backwards.
As I’ve written numerous times on this site, it would be nice if the Bills weren’t eliminated from the “In the Hunt” graphic by Thanksgiving. Hope can get you through the worst of times and Bills fans haven’t had much of that after the calendar has turned to December. The Bills haven’t made a legit march to the playoffs in a decade, and I’d be so stoked to see how fans react to finally being able to at least think about the postseason.
However, hope ultimately needs to be tied to results.
There are a few things the Bills have to get better at going forward if they wanna prove my 8-8 prediction wrong and get to 10-6. I’ve broken them up into five categories:
5) Sammy needs help
There’s no debate. Sammy is fricken for real. 25% of Orton’s passes have gone to Sammy. That’s a hell of a ratio when you consider that Andre Johnson, the most targeted WR in the league last year, accounted for just under 30% of his QBs throws. Because the Bills rely so much on Sammy, we can only assume teams are going to start noticing this which means they are probably going to either roll coverage to his side or double him. When that happens, the Bills are going to need to rely on their other pass catchers. Right now, Robert Woods has been slightly above average, but a bit on the inconsistent side. In five of his 8 starts, he has 3 or fewer catches. He currently has 27 catches which ranks 51st for WRs. He needs to get those numbers up. Scott Chandler has had one decent game (Pats game) and his 23 catches ranks 18th for NFL TEs.
Mike Williams is in the doghouse. Chris Hogan has only been a regular for four games, but he’s been targeted 15 times and has come down with 13 catches. That’s a pretty good target/catch ratio. Anyway, I think sooner or later, the secret on Sammy is going to be out and other guys will have to preform better.
4) The CBs needs to be more consistent
The Bills are ranked a little above average in pass defense. They currently rank 13th and are tied for 1st in interceptions with 12. However, I can’t forget how I wanted to throw Leodis McKelvin and Stephon Gilmore into the sun earlier this season. The Bills allowed Tom Brady to carve them up and even Jay Cutler had over 300 yards passing. Phillip Rivers had his way with the Bills secondary – over 200 yards in the 1st half – until SD got conservative in the 2nd half after racing out to 20-7 lead. Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for almost 300 yards in week 4. Matthew Stafford didn’t have Calvin Johnson. The Bills best pass defensive games came in back-to-back games against Geno Smith and Teddy Bridgewater. Not exactly elite status here.
Just as a reminder, the fine folks at Pro Football Focus has Gilmore ranked as the 56th best CB while Gilmore is at 76th. The site has Gilmore giving up a QB rating of over 130 and McKelvin allowing the the 12th most yards by a CB. The 8 QBs the Bills have to face in the second half have 111 TDs and 32 INTs. Six of the next eight QBs they face have a QB rating above 90. The secondary to me is the weakest part of the defense and with Rodgers, Manning and Brady coming, they need their “A” game.
3) Get more TDs instead of field goals
Captain Obvious, right? Well, since Marrone has been the coach, the Bills have had some serious issues scoring TDs in the red zone. As it stands, the Bills rank 29th in red zone TD scoring percentage at 46%. Keep in mind, the Bills are ranked 9th in red zone trips per game at 3.8 so it hasn’t been a problem to get in the green zone. The Bills have scored 18 TDs on the season which ranks 23rd in the NFL, and they have gone six games where they have scored 2 or fewer TDs. When your field goal kicker has the 3rd most FGs, well, I’m not sure if that’s a good stat or not. You gotta punch that pigskin in, fellas. Solution? I’d say try getting Mike Williams involved in the red zone. He’s a TD magnet or at least he used to be in Tampa. I’d also maybe toy with having a fat defensive tackle in the backfield or even lined up at TE. Furthermore, I think play action would really help. As it stands, only 12% of Orton’s throws have come off play action, 32nd for QBs. With defenses gearing up for the run, this is where you fake it.
2) Running game needs to be respectable
Disaster. This is the biggest reason why I don’t see the Bills being a 10-6 team. It just seems like there’s going to be too much pressure on Orton to make the offense go. The Bills are 23rd in yards per carry and have 21 rushes that have resulted in negative yardage. The last time the Bills finished that low in the rushing department was the 2006 season. (They finished 27th. That was when McGahee missed a few games and Tutan Reyes was our best guard.) For a while now, I’ve tried having the mindset of “Hey, no worries, Fred and CJ will eventually bail us out.” Well, CJ is probably done for the year and I’m a bit worried about Fred’s durability when he comes back. The dude is 400-years-old and you know the coaches will try and overwork him. Boobie Dixon isn’t the answer. If you take away his 47-yard run in the first game, the guy has 48 carries for 134 yards.
Then there’s Bryce Brown who is still a mystery. To me, the 50/50 ratio for run and pass is probably out the door with these guys. I just can’t see the Bills getting much positive yardage. The pass/run ratio is going to need to be closer to 60 to 40, in my opinion. I’d like the Bills to try and set up the run with the pass instead of the other way around. Just try and get up to that 100-110 yard mark. The Bills have fallen below 100 yards rushing in 6 games so far this season. With the cold winds rising and winter coming (Game of Thrones reference) in December, you are probably going to need the running game to help out when you are going against the wind.
1) OL needs to gel
What a chicken-shit disaster. I don’t ever want to hear anyone tell me guard play is overrated or that the QB makes the offensive line work. Maybe that’s the case sometimes, but all I know is that we had a good thing going in 2012 with this unit and now it looks like a Michael Bay disaster movie. The Bills are now on pace to give up 46 sacks this season, which would be a 2 sack improvement from last year!! Yes, I’m dripping with sarcasm on the improvement part. The 71 sacks the Bills have given up in their last 24 games is only 14 shy of the mark they gave up in the 48 games from 2010-2012. Something tells me they may catch up by Thanksgiving. Here’s how PFF has the OL ranked as individuals:
- Eric Wood: Ranked as the 32nd best center.
- Erik Pears: Ranked as the 78th best guard.
- Cyril Richardson: Ranked as the 72nd best guard.
- Seantrell Henderson: ranked as the 70th best tackle.
Ugh. Orton has been sacked 17 times, once every 8 pass attempts. That’s the worst sack to pass attempt ratio in the NFL by a QB who has started at least four games. How can the Bills solve this? By going for 3-step drops and getting rid of the ball faster. According to PFF, 62% of Kyle Orton’s throws have occurred before 2.5 seconds after the snap. This time frame has resulted in only 3 sacks and a QB rating of 114. However, when Orton holds onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he’s been sacked 14 times and has a QB rating of 76. This is Pass Protection 101. The Bills have guys like Watkins, Woods, and Hogan,who are decent in terms of running slants, so they may as well utilize them more. In the second half, the Bills play five of the top twelve teams in sacks so they’d better get this line fixed or Orton may have to retire again from getting beat up.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
