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With the weeks winding down and the draft quickly approaching, Joe in his infinite wisdom has decided to give me the challenge of challenges: sell you, our readers on the 2015 QB draft class, in particular the 2nd and 3rd round ‘worthy’ picks.
29 of the NFL’s 32 QB assets were drafted in the first three rounds. A chance it’s just Brady & Romo by May pic.twitter.com/wAKQDgtj4T
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) April 10, 2015
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As you see, unless it’s the needle in a haystack of Tony Romo or Tom Brady, outside of the top 3 rounds your QB mileage is going to drop precipitously. To that end, I’m going to look through the lens of QBs that have come before this class, primarily 2010-2014 and what was said at the time about them and how that turned on a dime once they had a hint of success / failure. Also, whether or not that player has done anything in the league is a *tiny bit* more important than the media view, so we’ll look at that as well. Note that for the media I’m going to go with the talking heads on NFL Network at time of draft (video when available), ESPN (+Kiper Grades) and Bleacher Report, as they typically are the first few that show up when you consume draft info.
From there we’ll chat a little on the 2015 class itself. Sound good?
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The Year: 2014
The Players: David Carr (36th overall), Jimmy Garappolo (62nd overall).
What they said:
Carr – B/R: Carr is a work in progress QB of the future. ESPN/Kiper – Kiper saw Carr as a great developmental piece of a top-to-bottom good draft. NFL Network – Mike Mayock couched it throughout draft weekend (and in mocks before) as hearing teams liked Carr. Mayock – Liked him, but didn’t like USC game. “Natural thrower of the ball” was a frequent phrase.
Garappolo – B/R: Was viewed as one of the 3 or 4 best QBs of the draft and a great pick by the Pats. ESPN/Kiper – Viewed Garappolo as the QB with the most upside in the draft. Mayock – Saw him as a player that needed (like most of 2014 class) a redshirt to really develop.
How they did/what media says now:
Carr – B/R cites numerous sources in saying that Carr is a work in progress and should be allowed to continue in his development. I also enjoyed this angle of Carr paying for the sins of David.
Garappolo – With a ring as Tom Brady’s backup and Mike Mayock saying he’d be #3 at worst in the 2015 draft, Jimmy G’s still someone seen on the uptick.
Thoughts:
Both were seen at the time of their being drafted as developmental QBs who needed time and both are seen as such now. And the Raiders and Patriots seem to be happy with both players in their current roles.
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The Year: 2013
The Players: Geno Smith (39th overall) and Mike Glennon (73rd overall).
What they said then:
Smith – B/R was all-in on Smith going 2nd to the Jags. Kiper had concerns about Geno, but thought Browns could take him at 6, which given his fall was quite a leap. Mayock – Saw Geno as more of a late first – early second guy and another brick of the mansion of 2013 QBs that on the whole he didn’t like.
Glennon – B/R had Glennon as a late first to early third. Kiper saw Glennon as a possible top 15 pick. Mayock – Saw Glennon as a guy that wasn’t much of a leader and not a first round QB. Also mentioned he needed to fill out a bit more.
How they did/what media says now:
Both Glennon and Smith are seen as fodder for trades and subsequent replacement by the media 2 years into their careers. In particular, Mayock cites Smith as someone that hasn’t progressed in his time as a starter. Kiper sees Smith as an option only if Mariota isn’t available at 6 for the Jets in the draft.
For Glennon, the Bucs having the number 1 pick essentially leaves him as dead man walking. However, reports have also surfaced that he could serve as the backup to Winston or Mariota should they be drafted 1st overall.
Thoughts:
The turnaround on these two was fierce. Geno’s fall has been the hardest; whereas Glennon had a solid rookie year and faced a bit of a sophomore slump with new staff, Geno went from promising QB to turnover machine. In a perfect world these guys would get a shot at redemption, but with the picks their teams have, it may come in another uniform.
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The Year: 2012
The Players: Brock Osweiler (57th overall, pictured above), Russell Wilson (75th overall), Nick Foles (88th overall).
What they said then:
Osweiler – Kiper saw Osweiler as a developmental guy that made red zone mistakes. Mayock saw Osweiler as a QB in the second round range and there were a ton of “is he Dan McGwire” whispers thrown about throughout the media.
Wilson – Bleacher Report claimed 2012 was the worst draft a team could have had with an “F” notated to it. Wilson was said to be a poor fit in the offense and a head-scratcher. ESPN’s Mel Kiper gave the Seahawks a C-minus for the draft (insider required) citing Wilson as a case study in shorter QBs. I will note that of all the pundits on ESPN at draft day, Jon Gruden was the only person to stand on the stable for his love of Wilson (see link). In fact, his commentary on the pick (saying that Flynn and Jackson should be worried if he gets a chance to legitimately compete he’d get the job) proved to be quite prescient. On the NFL side,
Foles – B/R (correspondent) saw Foles as a big mistake, given the Eagles’ need on the line. Kiper was a big fan of Foles, particularly with Andy Reid. Mayock saw Foles as a more vertical threat QB in the pre draft run up.
How they did/what media says now:
Wilson’s been a universal “mea culpa” from media, with the exception of Gruden and some in #DraftTwitter. Other than that, the “yeah buts” seem so show up a lot as folks explain why they didn’t see him coming. Osweiler is on ice until Peyton Manning decides to hang it up, so he benefits from the ‘understudy clause’. Foles has enjoyed success, but his recent trade to the Rams begs the question, was it him or the system?
Thoughts:
Wilson is the flag bearer (along with Kaepernick, Dalton and in some ways Foles) of 2nd/3rd round QB drafting in the last 5 years. Wilson has been to the last two Super Bowls, winning one (and I will not bring up how or why he lost the other OH GOD JUST LET MARSHAWN RUN IT IN). Foles being traded to the Rams leads to the inevitable “is it the QB or the system” question being bandied about, despite Foles being successful with Reid prior to Chip Kelly. Osweiler is blessed with the “in waiting” tag, so he can develop away from the spotlight, for now.
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The Year: 2011
The Players: Andy Dalton (35th overall), Colin Kaepernick (36th overall), Ryan Mallett (74th overall).
What they said then:
Dalton – B/R. Kiper saw Dalton as a good prospect, but his height might be a detriment in terms of batted balls. Mayock saw Dalton as a 2nd tier QB that may need a season or three to develop, like Kaepernick or Stanzi.
Kaepernick – B/R saw him as a 2nd rounder that needed to prove he could handle the mental game. Kiper as a moldable player for Harbaugh. Mayock saw him as a fifth rounder the year before – and a second rounder pre-draft.
Mallett – Was universally seen as a QB that needed to convince teams his past was behind him. His size (6’7) was also mentioned as a potential stumbling block as well, due to his being a traditional drop back passer. Bleacher Report had him as a 1st / 2nd Rounder.
How they did/what media says now:
Mallett is seen as a legit starting QB by Mayock. Dalton and Kaepernick have gotten their teams to the playoffs, with Kaepernick getting to and losing in a Super Bowl (hat choices or not). Mallett is a big question mark going into a QB competition in Houston.
Thoughts:
Dalton has become the flag-bearer for the “QB Purgatory” issue – he’s good enough to get the Bengals to the playoffs, but can he ever step up to make those appearances count? Kaepernick operated quite well in the Harbaugh-Roman offense up until last year’s struggles. With the staff overhaul and the potential view of GM/Ownership that he’s a “Harbaugh Guy” this may be a prove-it year for him. Mallet’s time as starter was stopped by the injury, but with fellow former Tom Brady backup Brian Hoyer in the fold, will he get another bite at the apple?
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The Year: 2010
The Players: Jimmy Clausen (48th overall) and Colt McCoy (85th overall).
What they said then:
Clausen – B/R saw Clausen as a franchise QB that should rival Bradford for the top spot. Kiper put his job on the line that Clausen would be a successful NFL QB. Mayock saw the drafting of Clausen as a top 10 pick quarterback that had been unfairly judged on intangibles by teams.
McCoy – B/R had McCoy as an A or A+ depending on the writer, citing the steal the team got in the third. Both Kiper and Mayock saw McCoy as good value for where he was picked and a perfect fit in the West Coast offense. Mayock doesn’t do grades if he can avoid them.
How they did/what media says now:
Both have fallen to the depths and are not spoken of much by the above media types. If anything, they’re used to list the QBs that teams drafted “in the search for a QB”, omitting their take on the player’s ability to be that franchise QB.
Thoughts:
When I think of the insanity draft season brings upon us all, I think about the derision the Bills got for not picking Clausen in the first or second rounds. History bore him out to be a backup – but at the time ESPN/NFL network pundits treated it as if teams were letting Elway fall to 48. McCoy has had fits and starts as a starter across 3 teams, but injuries and overall inability to push the long ball has hurt him every time.
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This year’s crop: Brett Hundley, Bryce Petty, Garrett Grayson.
What they are saying about them:
Hundley – Bleacher Report does a good job of coalescing all of the Hundley takes – as with the rest of this class, a mixed bag abounds. Kiper has Hundley as his 5th ranked QB and with his talk of Petty and Grayson as second rounders, that places him in the 3rd-4th round. Mayock had some pre-combine thoughts I found, but I’m going to re-visit him after his final pre-draft call and update accordingly.
Petty – B/R likes his tools, but sees him as a looooong term prospect, given his lack of reading defenses and the “air raid” offense he was in. As shown below, Kiper sees Petty as neck and neck for the number 3 QB and an option in the 2nd round. Mayock likes him and sees Petty as an option as the Saints’ heir to the Brees throne.
Grayson – B/R’s Cecil Lammey thinks that Grayson could be the heir apparent to Manning. Kiper sees Grayson as a second rounder that ‘hates to lose‘ and competes well.
Mel Kiper said it’s down to Bryce Petty and Garrett Grayson for the No. 3 QB in the 2015 NFL Draft. Says both are second rounders.
— Matthew Fairburn (@MatthewFairburn) March 26, 2015
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Mayock sees him as more of a backup.
Thoughts:
I can see the potential in these quarterbacks. But don’t the Bills already have that in Manuel and Taylor? If anything, if they truly want to make sure the position is secure, they should save firing their guns for 2016, or as I like to call it, QB Ragnarok. Look for that later this week.
I’ve thrown a lot of links, a lot of commentary and hopefully some information that starts a good debate. Hit me up on Twitter @RDotDeuce and we can hash this out. As always, this is just One Fan(n)’s opinion. #1FO
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