Bills G.M. hints at drafting a second-day quarterback http://t.co/DX9DFRT4as
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) April 2, 2015
When I read this tweet a few weeks back, I jumped out of my seat and totally fist-pumped. We all know the Bills are loaded this year. It could be the most talented roster they have had since the Super Bowl era…except for one tiny entity that’s pretty important…QB. The 4 horsemen of Quarterbackalypse of Taylor-EJ-Cassel-Tuel aren’t exactly installing confidence at the position. Every time I think of the Bills roster, I try imagining someone else at QB. Yes, when the rumors popped up about Philip Rivers being on the trade block, I was willing to give up your first born son and Marcell Dareus for him. Why? Because I’m desperate.
I wanna #giveEJachance, but its only because the trio surrounding him is just awful and I can convince myself he’s an unknown. So, when I heard the news about the Bills contemplating selecting a QB in the 2nd round, I was for it. Of course, the Bills have been known to leak misinformation in order to trade out of a pick. Remember how Doug Whaley loved Tavon Austin? How about Buddy Nix not being enamored with EJ Manuel during the draft luncheon 2 years ago? It could be just that with the QB.
Now, here’s where it gets dicey. I don’t know dick about the QB prospects that are available because I tend to ignore draft coverage and my college football acumen is pretty low. I know that the “experts” are saying this isn’t a great QB draft class, but I always hate when they say that. I tend to think a lot of teams and draft experts have zero idea how these guys will pan out. If you were to redo the drafts from the past where QBs who are established were selected later in the draft, don’t you think they’d go in the 1st round? Again, no one knows dick about these kids heading into the draft. No one had EJ going in the 1st round and almost everyone had Matt Barkley going to the Bills prior to the 2013 draft. Its all foreplay before the draft that really leads to nothing but draft blueballs.
So, I’m not going to scoff if rumors/smoke screens/truths percolate in terms of a QB at 50. All bets are off and this post will explain why..
Pro- EJ isn’t this regime’s chosen one
Just like Tim Murray inheriting Ted Nolan and not being his guy could bold true for EJ Manuel and Roman/Rex. Yes, they will say all the right things that they love him, but there’s so many lies that come out of coaches’ mouths in a public setting, you have to take it with a grain of salt. Every player they have on their roster is the best thing going today when it comes to their takes in public. The only person attached to EJ is Doug Whaley and I still have zero idea if it was Buddy Nix who really spearheaded his selection while Whaley was just buying his time to take over and went to the bathroom when they picked EJ. I’m leaning towards saying Buddy was more into it since he said in November of 2012 that he’d have a QB in place before he rode off into the sunset. However, Doug did give up a 1st round pick for Sammy Watkins with the line of thinking being that EJ would be the man. So, maybe he loves him. Who the hell knows anymore with the damn inner circle.
Con- 14 games isn’t enough to say goodbye
When it comes to selecting a QB in the first round, its really viewed as an investment. The player is viewed as a stock where you need to give time for it to mature. Its a “TEAM” investment. IMO, QB is the position that takes the longest to develop. Aside from Luck and a few other 1st year QBs, most have growing pains. EJ Manuel has had 14 starts. That’s not even a season’s worth of games. The only other 1st round QBs who had fewer starts out of the gate and got benched since 1998 were Akili Smith and JP Losman. It was unheard of for a team to pull the plug on a 1st round pick at QB as quick as the Bills did. I still think a big reason for the impatience with EJ from fans has to to with a lack of draft hype prior to his selection. Let’s not forget that Doug Marrone was an idiot and wouldn’t allow EJ to run which was idiotic.
Pro- History of 2nd rounders at QB
Geno Smith and Colin Kaepernick. Both QBs connected to Greg Roman and Rex Ryan. Both QBs selected in the 2nd round. Both QBs weren’t slated to start their rookie years. Both QBs were incumbents to QBs who were 1st round picks and slated to save the franchise, but struggled. Now, the 49ers and Jets didn’t elect to just hand the keys to Geno/Kaep. In fact, Sanchez would have started in 2013 if it weren’t for him getting injured in the preseason. Alex Smith started into Kaep’s 2nd season and was putting up nice numbers until he got hurt and Kaep tore it up. The similarities is that the organizations seemed to want Sanchez/Smith to succeed, but what the hell…let’s get another young guy in case they turn out better or Sanchez/Smith fail. EJ to a lesser extend reminds me a bit of what Sanchez/Alex Smith were at the junctures I speak of. Sure, EJ had less starts, but it goes back to being thrilled about him starting.
Con- Is a 2nd round rookie an upgrade over EJ/Cassel for this year?
While first round QBs as rookies have come a long way in the last 6 years or so with having an immediate impact, rookie QBs selected beyond the 1st round still have an uphill climb. Now, this isn’t to say you can’t find a good QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. However, to find an effective 2nd round rookie QB? That’s tricky. These are the QBs who were taken in the 2nd or 3rd round since 2008 and their rookie stats:
Derek Carr- 16 games, 16 starts, 348 of 599 for 3,270 yards, 21TDs and 12INTs
Jimmy Garoppolo- 1 game, 10 of 17 for 90 yards
Geno Smith- 16 games, 16 starts, 247 of 443 for 3,046 yards, 12TDs and 21INTs
Brock Osweiler- 5 games, 0 starts, 2 of 4 for 12 yards
Mike Glennon 6 games, 5 starts, 117 of 203 for 1,417 yards, 10TDs 6INTs
Russell Wilson- 16 games, 16 starts, 252 of 393 for 3,118, 26TDs and 10INTs
Nick Foles 7 games, 6 starts, 161 of 265 for 1,699 yards, 6TDs and 5INTs
Andy Dalton- 16 games, 16 starts, 300 of 516 for 3,398 yards, 20TDs and 13INTs.
Colin Kaepernick– 3 games, 0 starts, 3 of 5 for 35 yards
Ryan Mallett- DNP
Jimmy Clausen- 13 games, 10 starts, 157 of 299 for 1,558 yards, 3TDs and 9INTs
Colt McCoy- 8 games, 8 starts, 135 for 222 for 1,576 yards, 6TDs and 9 INTs
Pat White- games 13, 0 starts, 0 for 5 for 0 yards
Brian Brohm- DNP
Chad Henne- 3 games, 0 starts, 7 of 12 for 67 yards
Kevin O’Connell- 2 games, 0 starts. 4 of 6 for 23 yards.
I’d pretty much say its safe to assume the duo of Cassel/EJ would get you probably 20TDs and like 3,000 yards. That’s like bottom quarter in the NFL. Aside from Carr, Dalton and Wilson, there’s not much room to work with when it comes to 2nd or 3rd round rookie QBs being legit right off the bat. If the Bills are in a more “Win now” mode, it would behoove them to probably find a guard or ILB. A guy who could play right away and be more effective. In other words, a rookie QB in the 2nd or 3rd round may make them better in a year or 2, but probably not next year.
Pro- EJ stinks
This is kind of the obvious one. Look, we can get into the starts issue which I think is a valid point, however, EJ has looked sluggish since being the starter. When he’s been at his best, its mostly in a game managing/didn’t fuck up role. When EJ was bad, it was mostly in a “Holy shit! Why did we draft this guy and let’s call Kyle Orton” role. I mean, the guy lost his job after just 4 weeks into the season. I’m not asking EJ to be a God, but for him to put up Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012 numbers. Instead, he hasn’t come close to it and playing time seems to be the only defense of it.
Con- EJ fits the offense //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Greg Roman has done a lot of nice things with mobile QBs who really weren’t all that great in the passing department. His offenses ranked 11th in points 3 times, yet, their QB wasn’t exactly a passing machine (29th, 30th, 30th and 23rd). His QBs did some nice damage on ground (Smith-263 yards, Smith/Kaep-253, Kaep-231, Kaep-344) and would occasionally mix in a decent passing play. The key is that EJ’s mobility aspect fits in with Roman had. You also factor in how Roman’s offenses were mostly smash mouth and didn’t put that much pressure on the QBs making plays with his arm. In essence, Roman didn’t need his QBs to be Peyton Manning. Just manage the game and let the running game dictate the offense.
Final word:
I didn’t bother giving a scouting report on the guys who would be there at 50. I know Mel Kiper had the Bills going after Petty in the 2nd round, but I am not about to be a draft expert here and say why he’d be a match. I’d just be bullshitting and stealing other mockers material. In the end, its not how Kiper, myself or mockers view QB prospects in the draft, but how the Bills view them. I’m of the mindset that if there’s a QB in the 2nd round that could be a guy who can get you 25-30 TDs a season at some point in their career, you select him. Of the 16 QBs selected in the 2nd or 3rd round since 2008, only four of them have proved to do just that. But that may not be what the Bills are gunning for.
They may be at a point where they’d rather get a guy who could help them THIS year and if that QB isn’t going to be as good as what EJ/Cassel will be this year, then maybe you should wait until 2016 and go balls to the wall for a QB in the 1st.
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