Big moves this offseason by general manager Tim Murray, and of course the arrival of the generational talent named Jack Eichel, have Sabres fans talking big things this year. Is it warranted, or just overblown optimism? Improvement over the last two years is inevitable, but how far should we dare to dream? Will the additions of O’Reilly, Kane, Eichel, Lehner, et al be enough to get the Sabres out of the NHL’s basement? Will new coach Dan Bylsma’s system be the solution? Are the playoffs a real possibility, or are they just a pipe dream for this team?
So many questions, very few answers.
But answers will start to reveal themselves very soon. With puck drop on the 2015-16 season right around the corner, fans will finally get to see the blue and gold back in action. If the preseason is any indication, this will be a more exciting team to watch. There should be more 6-4 games than 2-1 like in years past, but will the Sabres have the 6 or the 4? The Buffalo offense will no doubt improve on last year’s NHL worst (and entirely embarrassing) 153 goals, but will the defense and goaltending be able to win games? It’s a long season, but we should start to get answers on those two issues fairly soon.
By the time we get out of October, we’ll have a pretty good idea where this team stands in the hierarchy of the NHL. The recent past has shown us that the first 10 games of the season for the Sabres are a pretty good indication on whether they will be playing late into the spring or booking tee times at Oak Hill for mid-April.
If we assume that you need to be a slightly higher than .500 team to make the playoffs (it took 98 points to make the playoffs in the East last season and 93 the year before), than the start of the season has been an accurate predictor of whether or not the Sabres grow playoff beards in 7 of the last 10 years.
[table id=19 /]To further the point, quick addition shows us that the combined record in the first ten games of the last 4 seasons (all of which saw the Sabres as postseason spectators) was 12-26-2 (32.5% of the 80 points available), while the previous 6 seasons (when the Sabres made the playoffs 4 times) they started a combined 38-18-4 (66.7% of the 120 points available).
In terms of average standings points over that time frame, there is a tremendous discrepancy between the tank team of the last few years and the contending team that came out of the 2004-05 lockout. In the last 3 seasons, the Sabres had an average of 4.67 standings points after 10 games (ouch), while in the run of 4 playoff appearances in 6 seasons they averaged 13.33 points after the same 10 games. A noticeable difference for sure.
So where should the Sabres be, in terms of standings points, come October 29th when they play their 10th game in Pittsburgh in order to have dream of playoff hockey alive? I would say less than 8 points tells us that we are in for another long season, 8 to 11 points means they are knocking on the door of possibility, and 12 or more points could indicate brighter skies earlier than many of us expected.
That’s not to say that if things start slow all is lost. We will have a team that is young at it’s core and new to each other, so it’s all together possible that they would be able to find their stride later in the season and make a playoff push. But it will feel a whole lot better for us loyal Sabres fans that have suffered (homage to Darcy) the last few seasons if they start hot out of the gate.
For all your Sabres stats nuggets in 140 characters or less, follow @SabresStats on Twitter.
LET’S GO BUFFALO!
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
