I’ve done these in the past ( 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014) so, you guys should know the deal. I did 25 predictions prior to this season and now its time to see how stupid or smart I am. Enjoy and tell a friend.
1) What will be the Bills record? 9-7
Its been my battle cry since 2010, great defense+ great running game + average QB=Playoffs. The first two, the Bills got. The last one? I don’t think they have. Sorry, but I’m not going to say Tyrod Taylor is average since I’ve only seen him play in the preseason. For the record: 3300 yards passing and 20TDs were the numbers for the 16th best QBs for those categories. So, that’s really want is considered average in today’s NFL. The yards belonged to Andy Dalton and the TDs belonged to Russel Wilson. Keep in mind the Bills had 3,600 yards and 23 TDs from their QBs last year. I just don’t think the Bills can get there this year as I think Orton is a better passer than Tyrod.
Real answer: 8-8
I actually thought Tyrod exceeded most expectations. 3,603 yards in total offense and 24 total TDs vs 6 INTs. If you told me that was what Tyrod would get at the start of the year, I’d sign up for that. So, yeah, I’d take him over Orton. The Bills rushing attack was unstoppable this year as they lead the league and had the most rushing yards for a Bills team since 1991. The Biggest problem IMO was the defense. They allowed 6 games of 30+ points and were just too inconsistent. They had some good games and then had the likes of Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith burn them.
2) Who will the Bills beat? Jets (once), Miami (Once), Giants, Bengals, Titans, Jags, Texans, Washington, and Dallas.
I think the Jets have way more talent than last year and should be better than 4-12 and the Bills always seem to split with Miami somehow. The Titans, Jags, and Skins do nothing for me. Same goes for Houston. I also think home field advantage against Dallas and Cinncy will help. The Giants defense gave up the 3rd most rushing yards last year and I think the Bills can run on them.
Real answer: Jets (twice), Dolphins (twice), Titans, Colts, Texans, Cowboys
I basically thought Jets/Miami would split and I was wrong. Hell, Bills took care of business in the AFC East going 4-2. Defense really did well against the Colts/Titans/Cowboys with allowing just 3 TDs in those games. The defense also dominated Fitzpatrick. Fitz was 31 of 71 for 374yds, 4TDs and 5INTs. That completion percentage was wooof. Oh, and Miami sucks.
3) Who will beat the Bills? (Pats twice), Miami, Jets, Eagles, Colts, Kansas City.
Yes, Im picking the Bills to get swept by NE because as long as Tom Brady is alive and playing, we are their bitch. I laugh at those who say “FUCK asterisks! we want Brady!!” Um, no you don’t. If Grapalololo or whatever his name is started against the Bills, we win that game and we finish 10-6 based on my predictions. That may mean playoffs. Again, take wins as you get them. I don’t like playing in KC as they are 11-5 over the last two seasons at their place. Colts have Luck and I’m scared for Ronald Darby’s life. I think Chip Kelly is the best offensive coach in the game and he’ll beat Rex’s defense.
Real answer: Pats (Twice), Eagles, Skins, Giants, Jags, Chiefs, and Bengals.
Bills were in position to beat the Eagles/Chiefs/Jags this year. That Chiefs game with the way they ignored Sammy in the 2nd half was really odd. Aside from the Pats 2nd game, the defense didn’t really perform well in these games.
4) Will LeSean McCoy have over 1,300 yards rushing? No.
I fear for LeSean. Love him as a player, but I’m not sure he’ll fit in this system like he did in Philly. He ran a ton out of 3WR or 2TE sets, but not so much in an I-Formation set. Also, I’m worried about how in Philly, you had to respect their passing game under Reid/Chip. I like Roman, but Tyrod Taylor isn’t Mike Vick under Reid or Nick Foles under Chip. Lastly, I am worried about the groin and the workload McCoy has had over the years. I think McCoy will get about 1,200 yards.
Real answer: No
Sadly this was more about injuries than performance. McCoy had 895 yards on just 203 carries. He had 7 straight games of 100 yards from the line of scrimmage which was the longest streak a Bills running back has had since 1992 with Thurman Thomas. Strangely enough he had 3 100 yard games where he got 112 yards in each of those games. Guess he loves the musical group 112 or something. However, he missed 4 games due to injuries and the first couple of games of the year he seemed to be nursing his training camp groin injury. If he were healthy, I’m sure he would have gotten to 1,200 yards. Also, let’s hope this was a 1-year thing with injuries and its not about a RB getting up there in age.
5) Who will have the 2nd most sacks on the Bills? Mario Williams
I love Mario, but I think Jerry Hughes is going to overtake him as the sack master on this team. This isn’t saying Mario is going to have 6 sacks or anything like that. I think age is going to start creeping up a bit with him. Plus, Hughes was nasty under Pettine’s defense in 2013 when he didn’t even play every snap (621 snaps to Mario’s 1,027), but still had 10 sacks. I can only assume he’ll play more this year and I think when he’s in a traditional OLB setting, he’s more dangerous than as a classic 4-3 DE. I think Mario gets 10 and Hughes gets 12.
Real answer: Mario Williams/Jerry Hughes
Got this totally right and wrong at the same time. 10 vs 12? Ha. The Bills only registered 21 sacks this season which was a franchise record low for a 16-game schedule. Like most of the front 7, Mario didn’t adjust to Rex’s system and Mario didn’t really give a damn over the last month or so. At least he can see he shared the team lead with Hughes.
6) Who will be the defensive player of the year for the Bills? Marcell Dareus
This is captain obvious here. He’s the best player on the team and is playing for a new contract which should motivate anyone. He’s a beast. He was tied for sacks for the league lead for DTs and had 11 tackles for losses. He’s awesome against the run and the pass. He’s legit. Pay #99.
Real answer: Gilmore/Darby
This was a tough one for me. Dareus had a decent season in terms of what Rex wanted him to do which was basically take up as many blocks as he could and let our shitty LBs try and make plays. However, his sack numbers went from 10 to 2. He did however have 21 QB hurries which was 11th most for DTs. Still, he wasn’t as dominate as last year. I think you gotta go with the combo of Darby/Gilmore. The 2 CBs were ranked by PFF in the top 20 for CBs. Gilmore was targeted 92 times and gave up 50 catches for 666 yards for a completion percentage of 54.3%. He also had 12 PDs which ranked 8th most in the NFL for CBs. Darby was a revelation as a rookie. He did struggle a bit down the stretch, but his overall game was tight for the most part. He gave up 57 catches on 104 targets for just 660 yards and a completion percentage of 54.8. He was tied for 4th in the NFL with 13 PDs. I gave Rex a lot of shit this year for how he ran the defense, but 24/28 thrived under his scheme.
7) Who will be offensive player of the year for the Bills? LeSean McCoy
Everyone knows what the Bills want to do on offense this year. Its run LeSean into the ground. I dont particularly think the Bills passing game is going to do the trick, so the skilled guys are going to suffer. Only twice did a WR have over 1,000 yards receiving under Roman in SF.
Real answer: Sammy Watkins
What a difference two halves of a season make. First 7 weeks for Sammy, 11 catches for 147 yards and 2 TDs. Injuries and that silly thing about his Instagram seemed to be the talk of the town in regards to Sammy. Then, he got healthy and the team decided to get him involved. Last 9 games, 49 catches for 900 yards and 7 TDs. Sammy was in the zone the 2nd half of the season and no other Bills WR came close. McCoy was the runner-up, but missing 4 games and the Bills still being pretty decent on the ground without him hurt his chances a bit.
8) How many games will other QBs not named Tyrod start? 3
EJ made the cut after it was only 3 weeks ago when a few in the lamestream thought he was finished here. If anything, EJ could get in due to injuries and if the offense struggles. He may still have a fan in Doug Whaley which means maybe the GM will go “Rogue” and recommend he starts at times if Tyrod struggles. Of course, the Bills just re-signed Cassel (No idea why) and as of now he’s 2nd string. I don’t even know at this point.
Real answer: 2
I was really off on Tyrod at the start of the year. I was actually TeamEJ and thought they needed to give him more chances and I didn’t have faith in Tyrod since my knowledge of him prior was nil. Anyways, Tyrod exceeded expectations and the only time EJ started was due to injuries.
9) How many total yards and TDs will the Bills QBs get this year? 3,400 yards and 18TDs.
Obviously I have some of those total yards coming via the QB running. Look, the 49ers were 29th, 23rd, 30th and 30th in passing yards under Roman. I think its safe to say the Bills won’t get those numbers if you are basing it on what talent SF had at QB vs. ours. I think the Bills QBs will average around 180 yards and probably 30 yards rushing a game. I just think its going to be all about rushing the football from McCoy and company.
Real answer: 3,596 yards passing + 632 yards rushing= 4,228 yards and 28TDs
Well, I was off a bit. The numbers look really impressive when you consider that Tyrod had 3,603 yards in total offense in 14 games. If he plays 16 games, that’s basically at least 4,000 yards in total offense. Like I said, the Bills offense being decent surprised me just as much as the Bills defense regressing.
10) Who will lead the team in INTs? Ronald Darby
I know what you are thinking..How could someone like him lead the team in picks? Its simple: Teams will throw towards him a lot and he’ll get picks. Why do you think McKelvin was leading the league in INTs after 6 weeks last year when he gave up big chunks of yardage? Because the ball was being thrown towards him constantly. Darby will get burned a lot, but he’s going to get picks.
Real Answer: Stephon Gilmore
Stephon lead the team with 3 picks while Darby was tied for 2nd with 2. I was also totally wrong on Darby. Hey, he was a rookie and they normally go through rookie pains. He was a pain alright…for other QBs.
11) What will Sammy Watkins reception and yards be this year? 940 yards and 65 catches
I wrote about this earlier in the summer, but I don’t expect Sammy’s numbers to climb that much with this offense and QB. The top WR in SF got around 70 catches and 950 yards during Roman’s four seasons there. Hopefully, I won’t be the only person who knows this and if anyone tries having comparisons to Odell again, they are fucking idiots.
Real answer: 1,046 yards on 60 catches
Well, I was kind of close on the numbers, but the way I had him getting there was totally different. Like I wrote earlier, it was a tale of 2 halves for this season. I’m still in awe at Sammy’s 17.4 YPC. A hell of a 2nd half by him. BTW, I think its time to stop talking about the Watkins trade. I mentioned it last week, but its time to stop having buyer’s remorse. We have a hell of a good player here.
12) Who will be the most disappointing player on the Bills? Percy Harvin
I keep forgetting Percy Harvin is on this squad. Can you blame me since he hasn’t played or practiced that much. I like Harvin as a player but the Bills did pay him decent money this year and I just don’t see him getting the ball much since he’s kind of a WR, but not. I just feel money and name recognition will be something fans/lamestreamers will tee off on when his numbers aren’t on the rise.
Real answer: Mario Williams
Harvin was disappointing since he only played 5 games this year. However, I think you gotta go with Mario. Going from 14.5 sacks to 5 sacks is a disappointment. Basically, I could put up anyone on the front 7. Dareus went from 10 sacks to 2 sacks and Hughes sacks were cut in half. However, I think when you factor in how Mario is getting waved and kind of tanked, its more disappointing.
13) What will be the best game this year? Bills/Cowboys
The Cowboys are probably my least favorite franchise in the NFL because the represent greed and corporate America. Also, fuck Jerry Jones and Chris Christie. I think the game in December will be a lot of fun as both teams will be fighting for their playoff lives.
Real answer: Jets/Bills
“Fighting for their playoffs”…God I couldn’t be more off on this one. Hell, I left the game before it even started. I think you gotta go with one of the Jets games. The Thursday night game was pretty awesome when you consider the Bills went to 5-4 and they seemed to be in the driver seat for the playoff race then. Also, knocking the Jets out of the playoffs was fun as well.
14) Who will be 2nd on the Bills in receiving? Charles Clay
This was a tough one. I thought about going with McCoy or Woods, but all we’ve heard this offseason is about the power of Roman’s love for the TE position. Vernon Davis was kind of hit or miss in SF as he had years of 26, 52, 41, 67 receptions under Roman. McCoy would have been a pick for me, except running backs in the passing game weren’t used much in SF. I think Clay is gonna get about 50-55 catches.
Real answer: Charles Clay
Clay was 2nd on the club with 51 catches and was on his way to break the Bills record for most catches in a season by a TE before he got hurt. I liked Clay’s game for the most part this season and I hope he can stay healthy for all of next year. 3rd on the team was Robert Woods with 47.
15) Who will lead the team in tackles? Nigel Bradham
I think Bradham is going to be dynamite in this defense. He’s gonna blitz a shit ton and be all over the field. Nigel was ranked as the 9th best OLB in a 4-3 defense by PFF last year and had the 3rd most QB hits in that category. He’s gonna be a monster.
Real answer: Corey Graham
Yeah, Bradham was about as dynamite in this system as a toy bomb. He didn’t fit in. Corey Graham had 127 tackles this year and normally when a DB leads your team in tackles, that’s not a good thing.
16) Who will make the pro bowl for the Bills? Marcell Dareus, Cordy Glenn and Stephon Gilmore
Throwing you two guys from left field here. I don’t think I have to get into what 99 brings to the table. I feel Glenn is going to have a nice bounce back season with the new coaching staff. He’s got a ton of talent and I think his girth is going to fit nicely with what Roman wants to do. Everyone has been selling Gilmore a ton this year and he’s got probably the best coach for his talents at his disposal.
Real answer: LeSean McCoy
I’m surprised McCoy made it since he didn’t have over 1000 yards rushing. Weird. As for the rest, I thought all 3 guys had decent years and maybe if the Bills were better, Gilmore/Glenn would have went.
17) Who will be the most improved player on offense? Cordy Glenn
See what I said above. With Glenn going into his 4th season, there are no excuses for him. He has the most talent on the offensive line in my opinion and Roman has experience with coaching high draft picks on the OL (Had 4 last year picked within first 2 rounds).
Real answer: Cordy Glenn
Glenn went from the 23rd best OT by PFF to the the 6th best tackle in the NFL. Honestly, most of the Bills players on offense stayed the same or they were new guys. I could have went with Sammy, but I felt Sammy’s numbers were still the same. He just did it all in the 2nd half.
18) What will be the most heartbreaking game? One of the New England games
This happens every year it seems like. The Pats always beat us, but there’s one game where you think we have them on the ropes and we are finally going to beat them and then…BOOM…Tom Brady makes us our bitch and we cry. It will happen.
Real answer: Jags
That game sucked. EJ being awful in the 2nd quarter and then for the Bills to come all the way back and take the lead, only to then have give up a TD on the final drive….Sucks. 2nd NE game was disappointing, but I think we all knew we’d lose that game. Jags game was one that most of us had the Bills winning.
19) Which teams will Rex Ryan piss off or stir the pot on? Jets/Patriots
You know the press corp. is going to ask Rex’s feelings about the Jets screwing him over and how the Bills have been kissing Belichick’s rings for years. Rex can’t help himself and he’s going to say something that will cause a commotion.
Real answer: The Bills
Seriously, how many times did a Bills player hate this defensive scheme? How many times did a player bicker to the press? Too many times. Rex was pretty tame when it came to talking about other teams.
20) Excluding LeSean McCoy, how many TDs will other running backs get? 6
I don’t see McCoy being involved in a lot of goal line situations. He had only 5 TDs last year even though he had a ton of yards rushing. I think Karlos Williams/Boobie will get a lot of the short yardage opportunities.
Real answer: 16
Yeah..I was off by 1..as in I forgot to include 1. The Bills across the board were so much better rushing the football. Six players had a rushing TD this season with 4 of those players having 3+ Rushing TDs.
21) Will the Bills have fewer than 54 sacks? No
54 sacks was the number the Bills had last year and that seems like a shitload. Yet, I think it can climb because of the way the Bills are going to blitz a ton. Rex has never had a front 4 like this. The Jets really didn’t have edge rushers like the Bills have and I think they are going to get more. Plus, the have 8 games against team who were in the top 10 in sacks allowed last year.
Real answer: Um…YEAH!
WTF was I thinking?? Yeah, the Bills set the record for fewest sacks in a 16-game schedule with 21. I do remember wrestling this a bit, but since the Jets had 45 sacks last year with far lesser talent, why the hell not? Ugh. I’ve gone over it in details why they didn’t get after the QB. Too many times they had that BS fake blitz in order to drop 8 guys back. They had their DTs trying to just hold up OL so their shitty LBs can get after the QB. Anyways, I suck and so did the Bills pass rush.
22) What game will I be the drunkest at? Bills/Colts
I’ll be going to the opener this year and that can only mean one thing: Booze at 7am…followed by booze at 8am…followed by shots at 9am..and repeat.
Real answer: I don’t care or remember.
I was sober for most of the games this year. Anyways, I’m getting too old to get drunk at games.
23) How many catches will Robert Woods have? 45
The Bills have soooooooo many skilled guys. Its hard to really gauge what they are going to do this year. I like Woods. Hell, I like all their weapons. However, Bob’s gonna have to wait until the Bills have a legit QB to get his numbers up.
Real answer: 47
Woods was pretty much regulated to being a blocking WR it would seem like. He had some decent games, but there were so many stretches where he didn’t even hit the stat sheet. 8 games this season Woods had 3 catches or fewer. It will be a big season for him next year as he enters his final year under contract.
24) Who will be rookie of the year? John Miller
I thought long and hard about this, but I think Miller is in a nice position because he’s playing next to Wood and guard is an easier position to get used to than say CB. Plus, the Bills are going to run a lot. I was thinking Darby because of my INT prediction, but I think he’s going to get picked on a lot.
Real answer: Ronald Darby
Yeah, Miller played…but that was about it. Darby and Karlos Williams were really good this season. It was overall a really nice rookie class. Hopefully they keep evolving.
25) Will the Bills make the playoffs? No
Yes, I am a bit jaded when it comes to being really optimistic about the Bills because of past failures. However, I can’t get past the QB issue. While the Bills are only playing 3 teams who made the playoffs last year, most of the teams they are playing have better QBs. I just think things need to be perfect for them to make the playoffs and the QB is far from that.
Real answer: No
Yeah, the QB position was inconsistent at times, but I felt Tyrod did enough of what was asked of him. 24 total TDs and just 6 INTs? You would totally take that. Basically, the defense regressed the most. The Bills had 6 games where they allowed 30+ points while last year that number was just one. The offense scored 27+ points in 6 games while in 2014 that number was just 3. If the Bills stuck with the same defense from last year with this year’s offense, I think they win 10+ games and make playoffs.
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