The Buffalo Bills may have more pressing needs to address, but it sounds like quarterback is an area the Bills are targeting with one of their first few picks in the 2016 NFL Draft. Last year Tyrod Taylor emerged as the starter in Buffalo, but there is plenty of uncertainty on his future with the team as Taylor and the Bills don’t sound to be anywhere close on a contract extension. Because of this, the Bills might try and find the heir apparent to Taylor in the first few rounds of this year’s draft.
Jared Goff and Carson Wentz will likely be taken with the first couple of picks on Thursday night, but after those two there will still be a number of quarterbacks the Bills will likely be paying close attention to.
Paxton Lynch: 6-6, 244 lbs: Memphis
Even though Goff and Wentz will be the first two quarterbacks taken, Lynch might be the most intriguing quarterback prospect in this year’s draft. Lynch’s first year at Memphis was pretty rough, with the Tigers going 3-9. Things quickly turned around for Memphis, mostly because of Lynch’s work at quarterback, with the Tigers notching 19 wins the last two seasons.
What stands out first about Lynch is his height, which allows him to scan over the top of the defense. Not only is Lynch tall, but he has the athleticism to compliment his height. Lynch’s agility allows him to avoid pressure and make throws on the run. Even in his first season, Lynch only threw 10 interceptions, and over the last two seasons only threw 13 interceptions, so it’s obvious Lynch is smart with the football.
Not to say there isn’t areas in which Lynch could improve. When Lynch throws the football it comes out with a bit of wobble and isn’t always the most catchable ball. Late in the season in Buffalo in winter weather it could be a problem, when it’s hard enough to catch a perfectly thrown pass. Lynch also needs to learn how to move defenders with his eyes, or else he’ll see his interception numbers skyrocket from the small amount he threw at Memphis.
While Lynch isn’t quite ready to start in the NFL, he has the physical tools to succeed. A year sitting behind Taylor could be just the right amount of time for Lynch to absorb what he has to before being handed the reigns at quarterback.
Christian Hackenberg: 6-4, 234 lbs: Penn State
Lately a name which has been associated pretty heavily with Buffalo has been Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg. After excelling in his freshman year with Bill O’Brien as his head coach, Hackenberg wasn’t quite as impressive over the past two seasons with James Franklin as head coach. A lot of Hackenberg’s problems during those two seasons came about because his offensive line was terrible.
Even with his inconsistent performances the last two years, Hackenberg is still high on many teams draft boards since he has shown he can handle a pro-style offense. Also, with all the hits Hackenberg has taken the last couple years, he has shown he is tough and durable.
What remains to be seen is how all those hits Hackenberg has taken, where he was sacked 82 times, will affect him. If Hackenberg’s internal clock isn’t broken, it has to be severely damaged by now. Hackenberg’s accuracy isn’t the greatest either, and it remains to be seen if it’ll improve if he is given adequate protection.
Hackenberg has the size NFL teams are looking for, but can he recover from what his last two years at Penn State have done to him mentally? A year or two learning might help to restore some of his confidence, but I’m not confidence he is worth a first round pick like some are saying he could be.
Connor Cook: 6-4, 218 lbs: Michigan State
Connor Cook wrapped up four years at Michigan State by winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, as well as leading the Spartans to the College Football Playoff. In each of the last three seasons Cook threw at least 22 touchdown passes while not throwing more than eight interceptions in a season.
Each year Cook improved as a starter, which was a big reason why Michigan State has enjoyed so much success lately. Cook has also never been lacking in confidence, which should help him as he moves on to the next level. Cook has good arm strength and a quick release, which could help him if he is drafted by the Bills and has to deal with some of the wacky late season weather.
While Cook does have good arm strength, his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. On short passes especially, Cook can at times put too much on his short passes, making them more difficult to haul in. Even though Cook has tons of confidence, there has been questions about his on-field demeanor and leadership at times.
Cook may make a fine NFL quarterback, but I’m not convinced he would be successful if Buffalo drafted him. I get the feeling he is like a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Brian Hoyer, who will at times look good with their ability to manage games, but not really a difference maker when it counts.
Cardale Jones: 6-5, 253 lbs: Ohio State
The ultimate wild card at quarterback in this year’s NFL Draft is Cardale Jones. In 2014 Jones was thrust into action late in the year following an injury to J.T. Barrett, and all he did was beat Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon, as the Buckeyes won the College Football Playoff. Looking back on it, Jones might have been better served to enter the draft after last season, as he struggled as Ohio State’s starter this year, and was eventually benched in favor of Barrett.
Jones checks all the boxes NFL teams are looking for in terms of size, arm strength, and athleticism. The size makes Jones very difficult to bring down, and over the course of a game could wear on defenders. Jones can also really unleash the long ball, as his deep passes have great placement.
A lot of the quarterbacks in this year’s draft have been starting for multiple years, while Jones is barely into double digits in terms of his starts in college. It’s a little concerning Jones wasn’t able to build off of his 2014 performance, but the loss of offensive coordinator Tom Herman during the offseason didn’t help his growth. For as good as Jones is with his deep passes, he can be just as bad on some of the simplest passes.
In the right system Jones can be a star at quarterback in the NFL, he’ll just need some time to grow and refine his abilities. The problem for Buffalo is it might take more time than the Bills are willing to invest. With the Bills possibly making a quarterback change after next year, Jones might not fully be ready by then. Now watch Jones get drafted by Pittsburgh, sit behind Roethlisberger for three years and then go on to have a Hall of Fame career.
Kevin Hogan: 6-2, 217 lbs: Stanford
What a last near decade it has been for Stanford in terms of quarterbacks. After Andrew Luck was the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Kevin Hogan has started for the Cardinal in the last four seasons. While Hogan isn’t quite the caliber of Luck, he had little trouble winning, going 36-10 as a starter at Stanford.
Nothing really jumps off the chart about Hogan, but it is hard to ignore his track record of winning. Hogan has adequate mobility and isn’t afraid to put his head down to get a couple extra yards when needed. Obviously since Hogan went to Stanford he is very smart, and while it might not always be pretty to watch, in the end Hogan always seems to find ways to make the plays necessary to win.
Hogan obviously isn’t as polished as Andrew Luck, which is why he won’t be taken anywhere close to the top pick in the draft. The mechanics and footwork of Hogan are subpar, which explains why the football rarely comes out of his hand cleanly. Also, Hogan needs to work on his pocket awareness, as he panics when pressure in mounting in his face.
Hogan might be the smartest choice for Buffalo since he’ll likely be available later in the draft, allowing them to focus on other areas of need first. Even if Taylor and the Bills do come to an agreement, Hogan would still be a fine backup quarterback. At least with his track record of winning, Hogan would likely find more success with the Bills than the last Stanford quarterback Buffalo drafted.
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