The Sabres come into Saturday’s draft lottery slotted for the eighth overall pick after a nice end of the season run propelled them out of the basement. With the new theoretically tank-proof draft rules in place – the first three picks are all decided by the lottery, meaning the last place team could drop to fourth pick – the Sabres can either move up to the top 3, stay at pick 8, or move down as far as 11th if three teams behind them all jump into the top three – extremely unlikely, but it could happen. Looking at the odds, they have about a 20% at one of the top three picks, 75% to stay at the 8th, and the remaining 5% spread around 9 through 11.
I never jumped on the tank bandwagon this year – unlike some enthusiastic radio hosts, who looked for any opportunity to fire it up again – because the Sabres are in a position to get a very good player as long as they stay in the top 10. While it would be nice to have more ping pong balls, the lottery isn’t a life or death proposition like it was last year. As long as they stay in the top 8, they’ll be able to draft a player who can fill a pressing need soon – top 6 scoring or a top 4 D-man, preferably left-handed. What follows is my list of the top 9 Sabres targets, meaning that at least one of them will probably be available with their selection, with some analysis on where they’d fit on the team and how soon they’d be out of the juniors / minors. I’m not by any means a pro scout; my ranking comes from limited viewings of prospects and various scouting reports – such as those by Corey Pronman of ESPN, Elite Prospects, NHL Central Scouting, McKeen’s hockey, and more – alongside my idea of what the Sabres need and could do with each pick.
1: Auston Matthews, C, USA
Like rain on your wedding day, it’d be fairly ironic if the Sabres won the draft lottery the year after they shamelessly tanked. Matthews was four days away from being eligible for last year’s draft due to his ‘late’ birthdate, and scouts say he would’ve challenged Eichel to be the #2 pick. For his draft year, he chose to forgo junior hockey in North America and go play with the pros in Switzerland, where he finished second in MVP voting as a teenager. Matthews has a great shot and passing skills, is a fluid skater, and has a big enough body to make plays from the corners. While he doesn’t have the panache of Eichel, he still boasts high-end skill. After playing against grown men all season, it’s safe to say he’s NHL ready next season.
When people consider the Sabres winning the lottery, there are many who say the Sabres would have too many centers – O’Reilly, Eichel, Reinhart, etc. – but, as we saw with Reinhart this past season, most players can shift to the wing easily enough. If your top two lines feature the pairs O’Reilly-Matthews and Eichel – Reinhart, you’re pretty well off. While down the road it may cost too much to keep that core together, you get 2 more cost-controlled years of Eichel and Reinhart and 3 more of Matthews to see who you want to keep and who to trade.
The other interesting option with this pick is to trade down for a top-pairing defenseman to pair with Ristolainen. It depends on how far the drop in picks is and how good the defenseman is, but if the Sabres win the lottery, the first overall pick could be traded for the first time in a long time.
Or the Sabres could make their life simpler by drafting the next guy in either the 1 or 2 spot, a player who doesn’t present the positional problem as Matthews. It’s…
2: Patrik Laine, W, Finland
This would be one instance where Sabres fans should be happy to get second overall. Laine (pronounced Line-eh) projects to be a high-end sniper, and that’s exactly what the team needs in their top 6. It’s hard not to drool imagining him finishing off passes from Eichel and Reinhart; the guy can pick a corner from beyond the circles with his shot. I mean, just watch this
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWziMoajHwI]You can spend a good hour of your life falling down a YouTube rabbit hole of Laine highlights.
Some have argued that Laine is worthy of a number one pick, and I wouldn’t be mad at all if the Sabres picked him over Matthews. He’s been playing against men in the Finnish league, just won the equivalent of the Conn Smythe trophy in the Finnish playoffs at age 18, and should transition to the US pro game relatively seamlessly. Besides his shot, he’s got good size (which Tim Murray seems to covet), underrated playmaking skills, and is an above average skater. But it’s the shot that’s everything, and what makes him particularly well suited for the Sabres.
3: Jesse Puljujärvi, W, Finland
Winning the third pick would present an interesting choice for the Sabres – whether to pick a well-rounded forward or a top defenseman. In terms of draft philosophy, I go with BPA before fit; while the Sabres may need a defenseman more than a forward, I would still lean toward forward. Plus, none of the defensemen in this year’s draft look ready to step onto an NHL blue line from day 1, whereas Puljujärvi (pronounced Pool-you-yar-vee and hereafter referred to as Pulju, for our sanity) should be able to log top 6 minutes in the NHL due to his size (6’3’’ or 4), top-notch skating, and experience in the Finnish pro league.
Pulju, whose name is ripe to be butchered by Sabres fans on Facebook, confirmed his place in the top 3 of the class with a superstar performance at the World Junior championships, leading the tournament in points and coming a point shy of tying a scoring record held by Jaromir Jagr – pretty good company. Pulju plays a complete game, though he doesn’t really have any one skill as good as Laine’s shot. Pulju can skate like the wind, though, impressive for a kid his size, and he is a great passer. His scoring talent is a notch below that, though still pretty good. Maybe the comparison is a faster, bigger Jason Pominville type, a guy who’s good at a lot of things but not great at any one. You could argue that the Sabres already have enough playmakers in their top 6 – O’Reilly, Eichel, and Reinhart – but Pulju’s speed would set him apart from everyone but Eichel, bringing the team an element that they currently lack. If you set up your lines with pairings of O’Reilly- Pulju and Eichel – Reinhart, you’d have some happy wingers (Ennis and Kane) and the makings of a great top 6.
Matthews, Laine and Pulju are seemingly locks to be picked in the top 3; it remains to be seen who will still be available to pick if the Sabres don’t win any lottery and stay at 8. Since I can’t project other team’s draft boards, I’ll just list the rest in my order of preference.
4: Pierre Luc-Dubois, C/W, Canada
Dubois is a big (again, Murray loves big guys, seeing as he’s traded for Deslauriers and Fasching and talks up Marcus Foligno constantly) winger from the Quebec junior league who has shown an ability to play all three forward positions. While he would probably need another year of seasoning in the juniors, his game is often described as pro-ready – he’s not afraid to make plays in the corners, he uses his body physically, and he has very good offensive skills, including what looks to be a potent shot. If the Sabres want another power forward, he’s their man. He’s been rising up draft boards, but if he’s around for the Sabres at 8, they should rush up to the podium.
5: Olli Juolevi, D, Finland (plays Junior Hockey in Canada)
There’s not a ton of separation between Juolevi and the next guy; it’s a matter of personal preference for me, and Juolevi is my preferred defenseman. Juolevi isn’t overly physical, but he plays a smart two way game and is very sound in his positioning. At the World Juniors he flashed great playmaking skills from the point (9 assists in 7 games), and may have the best mix of offensive and defensive skills in this year’s class of defensemen. He could probably use another year in the OHL before coming up to the big leagues, but he would eventually fill a big need for the Sabres – a top 4 puck moving left handed defenseman. His upside on offense is what pushes him up the list for me, as well as the fact that he and Ristolainen could make for a formidable Finnish top D-pairing.
6: Jakob Chychrun, D, Canada
Did I say Pulju would be the most butchered name by the Sabre’s faithful? Well, Chychrun (pronounced Chick-run) must be a close second. The defenseman started the season as the consensus top defenseman in the draft, and maybe the #2 overall pick, before fading throughout the season, partially because of unspectacular offensive numbers, the play of some other D-men, and the fact that he didn’t make the cut for the Canadian World Junior team. Despite all this, Chychrun still projects to be at least a top 4 D-man if not a top pairing guy; he’s a fluid skater, has a good physical edge, and can contribute on the offensive side. He may not be as offensively gifted as Juolevi, but he’s no slouch. While he’s probably not ready for the NHL next season – few defensemen are in their teens – he would fit into Buffalo’s future top 4 – maybe as Ristolainen’s partner – while logging some power play minutes.
Whether he or Juolevi lasts till 8 is another story, but I’m sure Tim Murray would be happy to snag either one.
7: Matthew Tkachuk, W, America (Junior in Canada)
The son of former NHLer Keith, Tkachuk mixes heady playmaking with a little bit of an edge – he seems to be one of those guys you love to have on your team but hate to play against. While his numbers from his draft season are inflated a little bit by playing on a super line with two top drafted prospects, Tkachuk has a goal-scoring knack, especially around the net, along with great playmaking skills. At the World Juniors he tied Matthews for the US team lead in goals and has been putting up big numbers in the OHL playoffs. His game has been compared to Reinhart’s, and I wouldn’t mind seeing another guy like that in Buffalo’s top 6, though Tkachuk would probably have to spend another year in the OHL before jumping into the NHL. Concerns over his inflated production and lack of elite ceiling could drop him down to 8.
8: Alexander Nylander, W, Sweden (Junior in Canada)
Nylander’s dad was a productive NHLer and his brother is one of the Leafs’ top prospects, but Alex Nylander is not just riding the coattails of his family name. Nylander has a very high skill level, is an above average skater, has a plus shot, and may have the best hands in the draft – the puck sometimes looks as if it’s on a string. He needs to bulk up and work on his two way game before he can play a full NHL season, but guys with his skill level don’t grow on trees, and he’s worth the 8th pick. With the Sabres, he’d eventually slot into the top 6 and create a fun sibling rivalry with his older brother over across the bridge.
9: Mikhail Sergachev, D, Russia (Junior in Canada)
I haven’t seen much of Sergachev, but by all accounts he’s one of the top defensemen available in the draft. Another left handed shot, Sergachev has been described by various scouts as a two way force with good size and instincts. While he could eventually become a top 4 guy for the Sabres, Tim Murray has shown a reluctance to pick Russian players for a number of reasons. I can’t say I agree with that – a look around the league shows a bunch of teams with exciting and young Russian talent – but until I see Murray draft a Russian, I don’t believe he will.
If the Sabres have the relative misfortune of drafting in the 10th or 11th spot, some names to remember are Julien Gauthier, a big right winger with an exceptional scoring touch; Tyson Jost, a high scoring center; Clayton Keller, a young American center who’s produced on the same level as Eichel and Matthews while playing for the US National Development Program; and Jake Bean, a left handed defenseman with huge offensive skills.
After all that, I hope loyal Sabres fans can watch the draft lottery without being crushed by the results. Winning any one of the three spots would be a blessing, but if we are shut out of the top 3, any one of the guys listed above will look pretty good in blue and gold.
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