After the Leafs won the draft lottery, it was fair for Sabres fans to take a little break from thinking about the team. Besides some of the Sabres playing for their respective countries in the World Championships, not much has been going on – the team resigned Johan Larsson, renamed their arena (welcome to KeyBank Center!) and changed AHL coaches. You could be forgiven for focusing on the MASH unit Bills, the start of baseball season, the NBA playoffs, and, of course, the NHL playoffs. If the games aren’t exciting enough for you, you can always pique your interest by thinking about players in the playoffs who could find their way to the Sabres in the coming years.
With the salary cap in place, it’s hard for playoff teams to keep everyone on their rosters year to year – which is just how the NHL designed it in their quest for #parity. So as you watch the conference finals, keep in mind some of these players on the final four teams, some of whom would look pretty good in a Sabres uniform. (I got all my cap info from the excellent generalfanager.com.)
The Big Fish: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
Let’s just get this out of the way. Stamkos isn’t playing right now, due to blood clots in his arm, but looks close to returning for his team’s playoff run. Stamkos looks set to become a free agent this summer, and is the best player to be on the market in years. Stamkos is right behind Ovechkin in terms of goal scoring in this era; he has rare shooting talent. Most players get locked up before they even sniff the market; but Stamkos and the Lightning have played chicken all year long, with Stamkos reportedly refusing an 8 year, 64 million dollar deal from the team. So he’s probably going to test the market, unless things come together quickly with the Lightning after the season.
If you don’t know, or haven’t heard (I envy you, if so), Stamkos was born and raised in the Toronto area, fueling speculation that he will sign with his hometown Leafs. It’s also fueled speculation that the Sabres could be a favorite to land his services, with Stamkos theoretically being close to home but not facing the intense media pressure of Toronto. And the Sabres have an attractive situation to offer – Stamkos would get to play in a top 6 with Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane, and (if all goes well) Tyler Ennis. That’s the top 6 of a rising contender, and gives Stamkos a chance to win now, as opposed to Toronto, which may still be a year away. But that loaded top 6 brings up a problem: Stamkos reportedly butt heads with Tampa Bay because he was playing wing instead of center. I can’t say for certain how Ryan O’Reilly feels about moving to the wing, but that would probably have to happen if Stamkos were brought in. Maybe O’Reilly is willing to do that if he gets to play with such a talent, or maybe Stamkos is fine being on O’Reilly or Eichel’s wing; either way, it’s something that will need to be dealt with if he’s signed.
The other problem with Stamkos is the price. Stamkos will command top dollar on the market, though he will probably not live up to the worth of the contract over a long-term deal (seven years max). Stamkos is still a top goal scorer, but his numbers have declined somewhat since a leg injury in 2013. Some of that can be attributed to league wide scoring going down, and the fact that his line mates haven’t been stellar since Marty St. Louis left, but anyone signing Stamkos should be aware that he can’t be a 50 goal scorer anymore, and that 40 goals is probably where he’ll sit for the first three years or so if all goes well; for the last couple of years, he might be scoring 25-35 a year while still getting paid a ton. The Sabres have a good amount of cap space now, but signing Stamkos at an unrestricted free agent price – probably the range of 10 million a year, give or take a million per year – might make it more difficult to keep the Sabres’ core together in the coming years. Rasmus Ristolainen will get a healthy raise this summer, and Eichel, Reinhart and Kane will need new contracts in the next couple years. It’s hard to say exactly who the casualty of this cap crunch would be, seeing as we don’t know a) how much the cap is going to rise and b) how certain players will perform, but the possibility for cap trouble is there. Of course, if you’re competing for Stanley Cups, you take the cap trouble down the line.
That’s the thing with Stamkos. If the Sabres believe that adding Stamkos can get them to the Cup, you pay the man his money and deal with the consequences later. The Sabres also need help on the backend, though, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to build a winner without Stamkos. But with Tim Murray at the helm, you never know.
The Mystery: Jonathan Drouin, Tampa Bay Lightning
Drouin demanded a trade midseason after being demoted to the AHL, as he (rightfully) thought he deserved top 6 NHL minutes. He sat out for two months instead of playing in the AHL, and then asked to come back after he wasn’t traded at the deadline. After playing really well in the AHL, was called up to the Lightning once they knew that Stamkos would be unavailable for most of the playoffs. He’s been fantastic so far, showing off the talent that made him the third overall pick in 2013. He’d be a welcome addition to the Sabres top 6, but no one knows if he still wants to be traded from the Lightning, or if the Lightning still want to keep him after all the drama. If Stamkos leaves the Lightning, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lightning and Drouin make quick amends; but if the Lightning stand firm and decide that what he did was unacceptable, he’s a prime trade target. Keep an eye on this situation.
The Odd Man Out: Alex Killorn, Tampa Bay Lightning
Another wrinkle to the Lightning’s upcoming offseason: Nikita Kucherov, who might be the future of the team, is becoming a restricted free agent (RFA) this season, and the Lightning will likely pay up to keep him around. That means they may have to give up Killorn, who is also an upcoming RFA. Killorn’s regular season numbers aren’t amazing, but he has been a great playoff producer – 18 points in 26 games last year, 10 points over 12 games this year. But he could play in the middle 6 for the Sabres, flexing up and down the lineup like Jamie McGinn did, and he has the size and youth that Tim Murray seems to be targeting.
The Cap Casualty: Kevin Shattenkirk, St Louis Blues
Shattenkirk is a great, offensively minded right-handed defenseman under contract at a good rate for the next two years, so why might he be available? Rumors have flown around Shattenkirk for months; the Blues are up against the cap, and may need to make some moves to keep key pieces like Jayden Schwartz, an upcoming RFA, or David Backes, who will be a UFA. And if they did keep Shattenkirk, the Blues may not be able to afford to give him a raise on his next contract. The Blues have a deep defense corps, and may feel as if they could get by without Shattenkirk, and trading him now might be better than losing him for nothing down the road. While the Sabres arguably need a left-handed defenseman more than a righty, quality is quality, and if a player like Shattenkirk would instantly upgrade the Sabres top 4. His availability may depend how far the Blues get this postseason, but Shattenkirk should be on the Sabres’ radar.
There are some other names on the final four teams that are approaching free agency –Jaden Schwartz, Troy Brouwer, Nikita Kucherov, David Backes, James Reimer, etc. – that either will not make it to the market or will likely not be of interest to the Sabres. If you want to see a list of all upcoming free agents, head over to general fanager; otherwise, just sit back, relax, watch some hockey, and hope the Sabres are making their own playoff glory soon.
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