Parallels to the Past

The schedule makers for the Major Leagues had an eye for retribution this year or else it was a tremendous coincidence as for the second year in a row, the Indians faced off against the Tigers for a four game series at home right when the play-off races were heating up and for the second year in a row the Indians blew a tremendous chance at making a massive jump when they lost that series.

In 2013, the series was a little earlier, from August 5th through 8th and the Indians were just three games back from Detroit at 62-49. They had just won nine out of the last ten, but made no advance as both the Tigers and Royals had matched that over the past ten games. By facing Detroit, there had to be movement. Instead of winning the series and sitting one game back in the division with two months left or splitting and staying three games back they were swept in the four game series, pushing them to 7 games back, just 1.5 games ahead of Kansas City.

This year, a very similar thing happened. Just like in 2013, there was a blow out (it was game four in 2013 and game one in 2014) and a couple close games (games one and three in 2013 and two and four in 2014). Unlike last year, the Indians did manage to win one game, but like last year, they could have won three. While the Indians started the series in third, 3 games behind both Detroit for second, but at the end of the series loss, are now five games back.

Like in 2013, the Indians still have games left against the Tigers and Royals. In 2013, they had three more against Detroit and six more against Kansas City, with the same this year against the Tigers, but only four against the Royals. One game against the Royals should be an easy win as it will start in the tenth inning and the Indians will have a two run lead thanks to the suspended game from August 31st. The problem with this is the lack of other games in between. Because the Indians blew the four game series earlier in the season last year, they had much more time to make up the distance. This year, the difference is less, but they have just 24 games left instead of 47. Having those extra games allowed the Indians to lose their final series with Detroit, but still go 20-6 to end the year including winning ten in a row to end the year, allowing them to finish just a single game behind the Tigers and win the first Wild Card.

While the remaining Indians schedule is fairly easy as last year’s was, the seven games against Detroit and Kansas City make up a larger percentage of it and there is a make up game with the Angels to consider as well. Assuming the Indians continue to play at their .519 winning percentage and win each series against a lesser team and lose those against the Royals and Tigers, they will finish near 12-12, good for an 83 win season and a likely third place finish in the division and fifth in line for the second Wild Card.

While that may be expected, the Indians could easily take the division or the Wild Card if they finished as they did last year. A ten game winning streak at any point would probably be enough and is very possible considering the Indians starting rotation. Winning series against the Royals and Tigers would count for double as well and will likely be the only way the Indians would be able to make up games in either race.

There is a final throw back to 2013 this month, showing that maybe the schedule makers did want to create a re-match. The Indians lost their only post-season game in 2013 against the Tampa Bay Rays, but will now have the chance to make up for it with a three game series against the Rays to end the season. After being swept by the Blue Jays, the Rays have likely been eliminated from legitimate contention, but will still be a challenge to finish the season against. Depending on how things turn out for the next few weeks, there is a good chance that these final games against the Rays will be like another play-off series. They can make things close with the three game and an inning series in the last week of the season, but will likely have to beat the Rays as well to make it count. Because of this, it could end up being a final single game against the Rays that determines whether or not the Indians go to the post-season or not.

Last year, the Indians lost six of their last seven games against Detroit and finished one back in the division. The Indians have already lost three of their last seven this year with three left to play. If the Indians cannot improve upon last September, history will likely repeat itself and the Indians will be left out of the play-offs once again.