When comparing the 2013 play-off Indians with 2014 team, there have been a surprising number of improvements considering the less successful outcome. Offensively, Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Lonnie Chisenhall and Carlos Santana all had better seasons than in 2013, while Jason Kipnis and Michael Bourn put up similar numbers. Cody Allen was significantly better than Chris Perez ever was and the back of the bullpen was incredibly solid with four of the most used pitchers in baseball. Even defensively, it was almost completely the same team as last season, except for a couple of improvements like Gomes over Santana behind the plate, Santana at first and half a season of Jose Ramirez at short.
Considering all these improvements and one of the best starting rotations (at least in the second half) that the Indians have had since 2007, it is hard to understand how Cleveland is on the outside looking in for the play-offs. On big reason was the Indians supposed ace, Justin Masterson. In 2013, while he missed most of September, it was Masterson who powered the Indians rotation through a period of inconsistency that lasted almost the entire season. He finished the year with a 3.45 ERA through 29 games including three complete game shut outs and 195 strike outs in 193 innings. Missing Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, who threw 340.2 innings for the Tribe in 2013, Masterson was expected to take on an increased role in the rotation, in front of Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco.
What actually happened was Kluber quickly became the ace and Masterson turned back the clock to 2012, when he posted a 4.93 ERA in 34 starts. This year, he was dealing with a knee injury for an undisclosed amount of time (it was formally announced on June 27th and he went on the DL for it on July 8th) that made it difficult for him to finish his delivery. Of course, Masterson struggled from day two of the season, giving up 19 runs in his five starts after throwing seven shut out innings on Opening Day in Oakland. In fact, for some reason, he was great in his first start of each month, throwing at least seven shut out innings in his first starts in March, May and June for the Tribe. Of his 16 other starts, Masterson allowed five or more runs nine times and was removed prior to the end of the fifth in 11 starts.
In addition, keeping Masterson on the roster and in the rotation possibly delayed the emergence of the rotation that ended the season. During his run in the rotation that lasted until going on the DL in July, Trevor Bauer, T.J. House, Josh Tomlin and Zach McAllister all spent time in Columbus. While only half of these pitchers ended up being important members of the rotation at the end of the year, the Indians would have been able to figure out which ones earlier on in the year. Using just House as an example, Masterson pitched in 13 games while House was in AAA. For the year, Masterson averaged -0.26 Runs Above Replacement per start and House 1.0 RAR, so for those 13 starts, it was a difference of 16.4 RAR or a WAR of 1.6. While this is an over simplification, the actual difference may have been even greater as House’s best games have come at the end of the year. If he had made even half of those starts instead of Masterson, he could have expedited his development and he could have made more starts like his last eight (team record 7-1, 2.30 ERA, 47 IP, 46 K’s) than his first ten (team record 5-5, 4.50 ERA, 50 IP, 32 K’s).
At the beginning of the year, there were a few different options for the Indians on how to handle Masterson, one of two free agents at the end of the year. With an unproven starting rotation, the Indians wanted to make the most of their ace for as long as possible before deciding whether to trade or keep him for a possible World Series run. They most likely had already decided prior to the start of the season not to resign Masterson as pitchers of equal or greater talent, like Kluber, Salazar and Trevor Bauer, were already under contract for years to come for a much lower price.
What Masterson’s struggles then did was handcuff Chris Antonetti and the Indians in their decision making. Obviously he was no longer going to be of much help down the stretch if he couldn’t pitch five innings per start (he averaged just three per game over his last three) and he wasn’t going to get much in trade compared to if he had been moved prior to the start of the season. Instead of a full year of a proven ace, the Indians were now trying to move an injured pitcher, who would most likely be relegated to a long relief role in the future with any play-off contender.
This is exactly what ended up happening. Unlike the other teams who traded their ace, including the Cubs moving Jeff Samardzija and the Red Sox trading Jon Lester (both to the Athletics), the Indians got almost nothing in return for Masterson. The Cubs return was looking toward the future, picking up the A’s number one picks from 2012 (Addison Russell) and 2013 (Billy McKinney) while the Red Sox addition was to help in the more immediate future, gaining outfielder Yeonis Cespedes. Masterson, on the other hand, returned just AA outfielder James Ramsey from the Cardinals and there is a good chance he wasn’t worth even that.
Since joining St. Louis, Masterson has in fact been added to the bullpen after just six starts. In those six starts, he allowed five or more runs in four and four runs in another. Just as before the trade, he was still unable to pitch deep into the game, pitching past the fifth just three times. Both the Indians and Cardinals took risks with Masterson this year, the Indians by not trading him earlier in the year and the Cardinals by acquiring him at all and he has made both teams pay for their mistakes. Most likely, however, Masterson will be the biggest loser of all. Instead of getting a qualifying offer and an expected contract worth at least $15M per season for three years, there is no chance of even the qualifying offer now. Instead of the $50M payday at the end of the year, Masterson will likely end up looking for the type of deal that brought Scott Kazmir to the Indians last year and Shaun Marcum in 2014. Ultimately, both the Indians and Cardinals will be fine and likely better off without Masterson. He, however, will not be better off without them.
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