The Ramifications of Bringing Back Mike Aviles

The Cleveland Indians decided yesterday to accept the $3.5M option of Mike Aviles, bringing back the utility infielder for the 2015 season. There was a $250K buyout, so it was a real cost of just $3.25M as the first quarter million was already sunk. While in the initial look at the situation, it looked as if the Indians would have been better off letting him go or trading him (which could still happen), that is irrelevant now and we need to look on to what we should expect from Aviles in 2015.

There were both positives and negatives about Mike Aviles in 2014 as he was the prototypical “team player,” playing second, third, short and all three outfield positions, more positions than he had ever played before. In addition, he played the majority of these places well, especially considering that the Indians had the worst overall defense in baseball. On the other side, he put together his worst season in his career offensively, batting .247/.273/.343. As the Indians had a poor defense, the offense wasn’t much better and while Aviles could have been used as a defensive replacement more often (he still played in 113 games, more than any other bench player) he was kept behind Lonnie Chisenhall for offensive reasons.

Going deeper into Aviles defensive production, he may have been willing to play all over the field, but was not necessarily capable. The chart to the right shows some pertinent defensive numbers for each position he played. In this, UZR is included as at most of these positions, he did not play enough to have a qualified fielding percent. Compared to the average fielder, Aviles is a fantastic short stop, the position he almost won the Rookie of the Year at in 2008. In the outfield, he was less impressive as one terrible game in right field has greatly marred his entire season’s stats. At third, his most likely position to break into the starting lineup, he was only slightly better than Lonnie Chisenhall (-15 UZR/150, .931 FLD%), not making enough of a difference to surpass Chisenhall’s offensive performance.

Looking into that surprisingly poor offense, it is hard to pinpoint a single problem that caused Aviles issues. He is only 33, so some drop off could be expected from age, but it isn’t like he is in the Jason Giambi range quite yet. The answer is also not in BABIP, as his .271 was better than each of the past two seasons and was only significantly higher in 2008 and 2010. With the style hitter he is (essentially a power hitter without any power), it is possible that his expected BABIP should be a little lower than the league average of about .300. Other usual qualifiers are equally indistinct as he matched his career average with a 13% strike out rate and was better than normal with a 23% line drive rate (19% career average).

One thing that is certain, however, is that Aviles didn’t hit well in 2014. Adding to his decrease in all three rate stats, his power has decreased as well. After an ISO of above .110 in each of the past three seasons he dropped to .096 in 2014, belting just five home runs, his lowest total since playing just 36 games in 2009. While his power is dropping off with age, his speed has remained as he tied his career high with 14 steals and his 74% SB% is both acceptable and his highest rate since 2011. This brings up the first potential change to Aviles situation that could help him return to his numbers previous to 2014. If Aviles can admit he is aging and take advantage of his speed by hitting more line drives and ground balls (including bunts), instead of swinging for the fences, he could easily increase his batting average and cut down on his strike outs.

The second potential change for Aviles that could help him produce at a higher level in 2015 is a management decision. Thanks to the fact that the majority of MLB pitchers are right handers, Aviles hit against right handers in 40% of his at bats. To make matters worse, he is not one of those hitters who hits better against pitchers of the same hand (like Chisenhall was this year). These splits are listed below and are lower across the board, but in line with his previous career numbers. If his at bats against right handed pitchers were limited in the future, his overall numbers would lean closer to his .259/.286/.360 line verse left handers than his pitiful numbers against righties.

Outside of his own numbers, another cost to look at in bringing back Aviles is the same as the problem with bringing back Jason Giambi in 2014 and extending Ryan Raburn in 2013, roster space. The Indians have a ton of talented infield prospects including some who are ready for 2015, like Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Geovanny Urshela, who all have a much higher ceiling than Aviles and these players have already been held back because of the aging utility man. In a few months, Ramirez proved to be better both offensively and defensively than Aviles, yet Ramirez was still forced to spend much of 2014 in AAA. In addition, both Lindor and Urshela are also defensive aces with potential to be solid hitters as well and now they are likely to be pushed back again in 2015.

It is this reason why trading Aviles remains the Indians best option. The fact that he still could bounce back from last year and is under contract for a low MLB salary makes him worth something to most teams, but he is never going to be better than he was a few years ago. All three of the Indians top infield prospects have a chance to be better than that and all could easily be better than Aviles in 2015. Playing the simple numbers game, at least 12 roster spots will be taken up by pitchers with nine spots essentially guaranteed to known starters from 2014. With a maximum of four spots left, two need to go to a fourth outfielder (either Tyler Holt or Ryan Raburn) and a back-up catcher, leaving two places for Aviles, Lindor, Urshela, the loser of the fourth outfield spot, Zach Walters and any other players brought into next years camp. With that little space left on the 25 man roster already, it is hard to see how there is room for Mike Aviles on the 2015 Indians roster.