Did the Indians Miss Out on Billy Butler

Despite a never ending quest for more offense, the Cleveland Indians are generally considered non-competitors for landing the biggest names on the market. With Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley and Nelson Cruz far above the Indians spending level, it is necessary to look at those players who could be overlooked by the rest of the market. In this case, former Royals DH, Billy Butler. Butler is just 28 years old, hitting the free agent market for the first time in his career. He had signed an extension with the Royals that included a $12.5M option for the 2015 season, but Kansas City didn’t feel he deserved the raise over his $8M earned in 2014, so they used his $1M buyout instead, giving him the opportunity to seek employment elsewhere.

Thanks to the sedentary Indians management, the Tribe missed out on signing the burly DH, but we can still see if they really did miss out. Earlier this week, Butler signed with the Oakland Athletics with a three year, $30M deal good through his age 31 season.

Butler is nothing if not dependable. While he may not be a superstar, he does what he does consistently. In this, he has played at least 150 games in each of the last six seasons (including five in a row with at least 158) and averaged 38 doubles, 18 home runs, 87 RBI and a line of .295/.359/.449. While the Royals may not agree that this kind of talent is worth $12.5M for one more year, he shouldn’t be considered a lesser option, especially given that Nick Swisher hasn’t put together a season like Butler’s average year since 2010, three years before he signed a four year $56M deal prior to the 2013 season.

As seen above, Butler’s production did fall off a bit in 2014, but he would still have been second on the Indians in doubles, fourth in average and fifth in home runs. The 2015 prediction above is a simple weighted average of the previous four seasons and while wildly inaccurate, likely represents a kind of high end for Butler. Assuming he could maintain somewhere between what he actually did in 2014 and what is expected for 2015, he would have fit in for the Tribe as either the third or fourth best hitter on the entire team.

Of course, with great offense has to come some kind of issue, or else he would be worth much more than $10M per year. In Butler’s case, it is that he can’t play defense. While he has played first base in a pinch over the past few years, he has no other real position and even at first base, he is not one of the greats defensively. In 2014, the Indians decided to start the season without a dedicated DH, something they haven’t had in strength since Travis Hafner was released. While ultimately, the infield rotated with Carlos Santana going from third to first and Swisher moving to DH, it was obvious that the team was missing something on offense by using its DH to give days off to weaker hitters. Signing Butler would have given the Indians an opportunity to have a full time DH again, something that would significantly improve the offense even with a minimum of effort from Butler.

The real question in the not signing Butler was not one of money, but of roster space. The Indians already made one mistake in signing Swisher in the first place and signing Butler would almost seem like doubling down. The team would not be able to use both players full time as Swisher has proven unable to be a full time outfielder due to health reasons and playing time will not be taken from Santana and Yan Gomes after their strong 2014 campaigns. While both could have technically fit on the roster at the same time, this would cost the Indians some versatility by either not carrying an extra outfielder or infielder. Since in the past few seasons, the Indians have been unwilling to use even one roster spot for a dedicated full time DH, it is hard to believe they would use two spots next year for two part time hitters. This is not to say it is not a possibility, but that it is just unlikely that both players will be on the team at the same time.

Timing will likely be important if any DH only hitter will be added this off-season. While it would obviously be an improvement for the team, Swisher is a huge road block because of both the roster spot and his financial situation. While the Indians are likely going to try to move Swisher, David Murphy and/or Michael Bourn this off-season, making a trade of that monetary value will take time, while the free agent market is already decreasing rarely. If any one of those players were to be traded, it would open up a greater possibility for any free agents to join the team, but the most important (and expensive) is Swisher. It is hard to imagine any team wanting to take on Swisher’s massive contract for his below replacement level player play, but if the Indians really want to make a solid run at the post-season in 2015, removing the worst player on the roster should be a high priority.

As one of the lowest salaried teams in all of baseball, the Indians were in a good position to sign Butler and could still easily afford another $10M per year. While not having a DH saves money and a roster spot, it severely damages the lineup, essentially turning an American League team into just above a National League team. It may cost more money than the Indians have ever been willing to spend by off-loading Swisher and paying another hitter to take his place, but it would make a big enough difference to the offense that it is a strategy well worth looking into.