If the first few weeks of the baseball off-season have taught us anything, it’s that the Boston Red Sox are willing to spend a lot of money in an attempt to rebuild themselves into playoff contenders for 2015. Earlier this week the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval four year deals, with Ramirez’ signing for $88 million and Kung Fu Panda’s for $95 million.
On Tuesday, Boston announced Ramirez as a left fielder, which adds another piece to an already crowded outfield. As it stands, Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, Brock Holt, Daniel Nava, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Cuban import Rusney Castillo, and Ramirez will all be vying for a spot in the Red Sox outfield rotation at the start of spring training.
Rumors already began circulating that Boston may be interested in trading their 2014 mid-season acquisition Yoenis Cespedes. While Cespedes is an intriguing option for the Tribe, it’s not realistic one. Obtaining Cespedes’ will likely cost the Tribe one of either Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer since the Red Sox have a dearth of young MLB-ready pitching options and want to win now. This is a steep price to pay for what will essentially be a one year rental, as Cespedes will become a free agent next summer.
Even if the Red Sox trade Cespedes, and they likely will, they will still need to move at least one more outfielder this offseason. With that being said, the Indians may be able to obtain Cespedes-like production at a much cheaper cost by trading for Allen Craig. The former Cardinals OF/1B had an absolutely abysmal 2014 with the Cardinals and it didn’t get any better after his mid-season trade to the Red Sox. Craig had an eye sore of a triple slash line of .215/.279/.315, easily the worst numbers of his career. This coming after two solid seasons in a row in 2012 & 2013.
[table id=1 /]As you can see, nothing went right for Craig last year and it’s hard to say why exactly. It is doubtful it is due to age, Craig did turn 30 this past July but I think it is unlikely that he suffered from such an immediate reduction in his skills due to age. The most plausible explanation is that it was the lingering effects from a foot injury he sustained at the end of 2013 and re-injured after arriving in Boston. Boston and Craig have consistently maintained that his injury does not require further attention, and with a full offseason of rest, coupled with his past success, Allen Craig is a prime candidate for a big bounce-back year.
Craig is exactly the type of middle of the order right handed power bat the Indians have so desperately needed the past few seasons. In 2012, his first full season in the bigs Craig posted a triple slash of .307/.354/.522, for the sabermetrically inclined he had a 137 wRC+, good for 9th in the National League and would have easily lead the Indians (Shin-Soo Choo 130 wRC+). He followed that up with another great year in 2013 with .315/.373/.457 and a 134 wRC+, which was 16th in the National League and would have tied Carlos Santana for the team lead. If Craig can return to these numbers, he would immediately be one of the Indians’ best hitters.
One reason for believing that Craig will return to his 2012-2013 form is that he was very unlucky last season, evidenced by his .266 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). League average for BABIP tends to be around .300, with the games’ greatest hitters hanging around .350 while the worst are around .260. The previous two seasons Craig posted BABIPs of .334 and .368, proving he is capable of sustaining success at an elite level. His .266 BABIP last year tends to show that he is due to regress to something closer to league average if not above average.
Craig also has a very team friendly contract that wouldn’t break the Indians’ budget. He is due just $5.5 million this upcoming season, which could be a tremendous bargain if he is able to return to his pre-injury form. If the Indians were able to obtain his services, Craig would be signed through 2017, with a team option for 2018. The table below gives a breakdown of Craig’s contract.
[table id=2 /]The Indians have approximately 10-15 million to spend this offseason, but in 2016 a number of players are due raises that will make it difficult to add extra salary unless the front office is willing to increase the payroll. This would make Craig’s $9 million difficult to afford in 2016, but if the Indians are able to shed Nick Swisher’s contract this would be no problem. Furthermore, a bounce back 2015 would give the Tribe the option to shop Craig to other teams, potentially bringing quality young prospects in return.
The Red Sox will have to unload some of their outfielders and Craig’s value after this past season is at an all-time low. Before this past season he was a consistent .300 hitter with above-average power and a knack for driving in runs. If Craig is able to return to form, and with a full offseason of rest it is very possible he will, the Indians could be getting an absolute steal.
Trades are always difficult to predict, but if the Red Sox asking price isn’t too high the Indians should look hard into making a deal to bring Craig to Cleveland. A lineup of Michael Brantley, Allen Craig, Carlos Santana, and Yan Gomes could potentially be the scariest middle of the order in the American League and one of the best hitting lineups the Indians have had since the mid to late 90’s.
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