A Rolling Tribe Does Gather Moss

Sometimes rumors do come true and this time a trade that has been brewing for about a week has finally come to fruition. The move was a rare one for a couple of reasons. First, it involved the Indians sending a prospect to another team for an established player instead of the other way around and secondly, it was a one for one deal. It is generally difficult for two teams to agree that two players are worth each other and with any prospect comes a high risk, so generally multiple minor leaguers need to be packaged to return an All-Star caliber player.

For those who haven’t seen, the deal made brought first baseman and outfielder Brandon Moss from the Oakland Athletics to the Indians in exchange for AA second baseman, Joe Wendle. The potential results of this trade were initially discussed in an article last week (Does a Rolling Tribe Gather Moss?), but now that it is concrete, we can get further into the details.

The Cost

Some Indians fans may not be familiar with Joe Wendle, who was drafted by Cleveland in the sixth round in 2012, despite the fact that he was the top second base prospect coming into the year. After two solid seasons, Wendle was advanced all the way to Akron to start the 2014 season. Unfortunately, he broke his hamate bone and missed a large part of the season, finishing with significantly lower rate stats than the previous season.

Injury risks aside, Wendle’s chances with the Tribe looked slim, despite being the top prospect at second. At the major league level, Jason Kipnis is signed through the 2020 season and whether or not he returns to form after a 2014 season that was below expectations, it is hard to imagine the Indians playing a game with out him at second in the near future. At short stop, where Wendle could also play, Francisco Lindor looks to be an even bigger stopping block. Since Lindor is yet to make his Major League debut, he should be under team control through at least 2021 irrelevant of extensions. In addition, the Indians have Jose Ramirez and Erik Gonzalez who could be with the team for a similar tenure and were also above Wendle in the depth chart at short stop. With so many players of such great talent locked in for so long up the middle of the infield, losing Wendle doesn’t cost the Indians much.

Because of this infield depth, whether or not Wendle ever makes it big for the Athletics is essentially irrelevant. While there could be some remorse, chances are much greater that any minor leaguer will fade out than become an All-Star and it will likely be at least a few years before Wendle even makes his MLB debut, let alone gets into his prime. With the Indians roster set to win right now (and for the next three years), Moss is of much more use to the Tribe.

The Return

Like Wendle, Brandon Moss dealt with injuries including hip surgery that ended his season, although he comes without the risks of being a career minor leaguer. Moss began his career in Boston before getting traded to the Pirates (2008-2010), being released and signed by the Phillies (2011) and ultimately joining the Athletics in 2012. At 28 with Oakland, Moss finally set into his prime, hitting at least 20 home runs, knocking in 50 and averaging more than 20 doubles each year for three consecutive seasons.

Going into 2015, less should be expected of Moss than his previous two seasons due to the injury and increased age (he is now 31). Even at a lowered production level, Moss should still be a great asset for Cleveland. Considering his 2014 seasons, Moss would have been the Indians third best hitter as far as extra base hits are concerned and earned a 2.6 WAR as well.

While Moss was signed for his offense, his defense is also an important aspect of this trade. At the moment, Moss should be considered the Indians starting right fielder going into 2014 (replacing David Murphy) and this will be a great improvement. Right field is Moss’ best position (3.9 career UZR/150) and right field was one of the worst positions defensively for the Indians in 2014. Ignoring the messes that were Ryan Raburn and Mike Aviles in right, Murphy alone was worth -15.2 runs/150 compared the average fielder in 2014 alone. Even before considering offense, using Moss in right field on a regular basis could save the Indians as much as 20 runs a year.

Finally, Moss is under team control for two more seasons. Because of his late start, he will be entering into just his second year of arbitration in 2015 and, while his contract is yet to be decided, he will likely make somewhere between his 2014 salary of $4.1M and $10M. While this will make him one of the highest paid Indians, it remains a bargain deal compared to what he could have received on the free agent market. Given that, unless the Indians decide to sign him to a three year deal prior to his arbitration date next year, don’t expect Moss to remain an Indian past the 2016 season.

The Ramifications

There are quite a few ripples that will be made by the Moss trade and they will likely continue for weeks to come. The earliest will stem from the fact that the Indians have a full 40 man roster and will need to remove a player to make room for Moss. Officially, the first off the chopping block was Bryan Price, a relief pitcher who struggled greatly in limited time in 2014, but more moves are likely down the line to free up room on the 25 man roster as well, possibly through a release of a minor player (like Raburn) or a trade of a major one.

Another possible trade brings us to the second effect of this one. As mentioned before, Moss will be taking over the position of David Murphy, but likely not his roster spot. This gives the Indians nine Major League ready outfielders going into 2015, six of which (Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, Moss, Murphy, Mike Aviles and Nick Swisher) are essentially guaranteed spots unless something major happens. Something major almost certainly needs to happen. Even if Raburn were released, which is unlikely given the strange loyalties of the Indians front office, there still wouldn’t be room on the 25 man roster for Tyler Holt or Zach Walters, both of whom showed glimmers of excellence in 2014. While Moss is obviously a better option than either of these young players, Aviles, Murphy and Swisher are not better options, but are certain to remain with the team due to contractual obligations. The Indians would almost certainly be a better team if the younger Holt and Walters were to replace Murphy and Swisher and now that the Indians have Moss as the starter in right, Chris Antonetti can feel that much freer to trade either.

As always, it will take years to discover the full outcome of this trade, but for the moment, it seems that Chris Antonetti has again turned something the Indians couldn’t use into something they can, improving the team by volumes in the process. Welcome to Cleveland, Brandon Moss.