Indians Avoid Arbitration With All Six Eligibles

The Indians have expertly avoided arbitration for most of the history of arbitration, but last season they proved that they would be willing to to break their streak if for a good cause. Last year, it was Josh Tomlin and Vinnie Pestano that went the distance, but this year, things were cleared up in a hurry. With January 16th as the last date to exchange arbitration figures, the Indians already locked down all six of their arbitration eligible players for 2015.

Going down the list, in his second year of eligibility, Marc Rzepczynski was given a $2.4M deal after pulling in $1.375M in 2014. This will make Rzepczynski the highest paid Indians relief pitcher by almost a million dollars above Bryan Shaw, who also received an arbitration raise this week. Of course, the majority of bullpen production will likely again come from pre-arbitration players like closer Cody Allen, Kyle Crockett and possible T.J. House or Zach McAllister. Rzepczynski pitched in a career high 73 games last year and had a dominant 2.74 ERA, but was much more dominant against left handers (.180 BAA) than against right handers (.338) and with possibly three left handers in the pen in 2015 (Crockett and either House or Nick Hagadone) he will likely be used for less batters per appearance.

The second agreement for the Tribe came with Lonnie Chisenhall at $2.25M, a significant raise over his MLB minimum $511K in 2014. This is a more deserved raise than Rzepczynski’s as Chisenhall went into 2014 as a bench player, deserving the league minimum, but is now the starting third baseman and worth of the considerable raise. Comparing WAR to salary is difficult on the Indians due to Nick Swisher making $15M for a negative value, but things seem to work out well for Lonnie who had a 1.5 WAR (3.1 oWAR), considerably better than Rzepczynski, who is earning more for a 0.6 WAR. Considering expected playing time in 2015, Chisenhall’s numbers will likely increase, while Rzepczynski’s stay the same.

With this, the entire Indians infield is under contract for 2015 and is actually pretty cheap. Excluding Swisher, who will likely be the starting DH, Carlos Santana is under contract for $6M (he has a raise to $8.25 coming in 2016), Jason Kipnis for $4M and Jose Ramirez for the league minimum. In fact, the Indians will be paying more combined for two bench players, Mike Aviles ($3.5M) and Ryan Raburn ($2.5M) than any one infielder.

The most important player signed this week was Carlos Carrasco, quite possibly the Indians number two starter in the rotation for the upcoming season. Carrasco will make $2.3375M after being incredible under valued at $505K in 2014. This is also Carrasco’s first eligible season for arbitration and considering the risk involved, he is obviously happy with his pay increase. His 2014 WAR of 3.3 was the second best on the team behind the Cy Young winning Corey Kluber and during the final half of the season, he even outplayed the Indians ace.

Because the Indians starting rotation is so young, Carrasco will likely be the second highest paid pitcher this season. Gavin Floyd has already been guaranteed $4M, but Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Zach McAllister and House are all pre-arb eligible. The final pitcher with a shot to make the rotation is another arbitration eligible signing, Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin was one of two players to go to a hearing in 2014 and after losing, he has decided to take the Indians offer of $1.5M for 2015. This is his second of three seasons of eligibility and he has the same issue he had going into 2014, essentially that Tomlin considers himself a Major League starter, while the Indians see him as a depth option or possible reliever. The Indians did win against Tomlin last year and it would have been hard for Tomlin to win this year after a 4.76 ERA in 104 innings last year. There was some question about Tomlin being in the rotation last season, but there is little question now, with the added depth of Floyd, that Tomlin will not be a starter at the beginning of the year.

In addition to Tomlin, new addition Brandon Moss is also going into his second year of arbitration and Bryan Shaw his first. At 31, Moss is a little old to be in just his second year of arbitration, but after 55 home runs and 168 RBI in his past two seasons along with his first All-Star appearance in 2014, Moss got a fair pay day for his talent. He will make $6.5M in 2015 after bringing home $4.1M last season.

Shaw was the Indians most used pitcher in 2014 (and the most used in the entire American League) and with a 2.54 ERA, he was certainly deserving of a big pay day. From his Major League minimum salary of $529K last season, Shaw saw an increase of a little more than $1M to a total of $1.55M. While less than Rzepczynski, Shaw is now the Indians second highest paid reliever, still ahead of Scott Atchison’s $900K.

The predictions from MLBTradeRumors.com (as accurate as any arbitration predictor) are listed in the chart above next to the actual amount earned. A few predictions were dead on, like Chisenhall, Tomlin and Shaw, but Moss came in significantly under value while Rzepczynski was significantly above. The difference in Carrasco’s numbers likely stems from his expected increased role in 2015 compared to 2014. The MLBTR numbers are largely based on recent seasons and since Carrasco didn’t pitch in 2013, he was likely undervalued. What is surprising is that Shaw will make less than Rzepczynski after being the Indians number one set up man in 2014. With so many other left handed options in the bullpen, the Indians could have afforded to wait him out a little longer, instead it appears they have overpaid a bit.