Steamer Projections for the 2015 Indians

A few days ago we took a look at Bill James’ projections for the 2015 Indians and today we will examine the Steamer projections for another look at the Indians’ predicted success. Below are the projections for the Indians’ hitters in 2015, these are condensed a bit for brevity’s sake, you can check out the full projections here.

As you can see, Steamer projects that Brandon Moss will be the Indians’ best hitter next season, an encouraging sign considering all the uncertainty surrounding Moss’ hip injury that plagued him during the second half of last season. That is not to say that the guys at Steamer have inside information regarding Brandon Moss’ health, but they do take injuries and aging into consideration and are not concerned enough to limit his projection.

The absence of Francisco Lindor in these projections is a bit perplexing, especially considering that Erik Gonzalez, the likely opening day shortstop in AA Akron, is included.

A major difference between the Steamer and Bill James projections is that Steamer includes defense. When you look at the full projections on FanGraphs, you’ll notice that the Indians are only projected to have five full-time positive defense players in 2015, Yan Gomes (14.5), Jose Ramirez (8.4), and Michael Bourn (0.8). Gomes is projected to be the Indians’ best defender, which should come as no surprise considering his excellent performance the last two seasons. Normally considered a top defender, Michael Brantley is predicted at a -9.3 defense score, largely tempering his total WAR listed above.

Steamer also provides a version of their projections known as “Steamer600.” These are similar to the Bill James projections in that they predict how well a player would do if they were to be given 600 plate appearances. Once again, another stat projection outlet believes that Zach Walters could be a 20-home run machine if given the playing time. Unfortunately, none of them believe he will limit his strikeouts this year either. You can check out the complete Steamer600 projections here.

Unfortunately, Steamer, like Bill James, isn’t particularly high on the Indians’ rotation for 2015. They are pretty high on Corey Kluber despite predicting that he will be far off from the numbers he had during last year’s Cy Young season. Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, two young pitchers the Tribe will rely heavily on this upcoming season, are predicted to have merely above average seasons. Above average is by no means a bad thing, but that isn’t quite acceptable coming from your #2 and #3 starters on a team looking to contend.

Once again Trevor Bauer is projected to have a miserable season, which is a bit baffling to me. Bauer was not the model of consistency last season that’s for sure, but most Tribe fans would tell you there were certainly moments where he was very good. Looking at Bauer from 2013 to 2014, you could definitely tell that he was starting to put things together. He is after all, just 24 years old and his strong work ethic, as unique as it may be, is well documented. Perhaps it’s the foolish optimist in me, but I believe Bauer will be considerably better than these projections think.