Nick Swisher On The Mend!

Who Needs to Rebound?

Naming a player as a rebound player needs to be defined. First, it’s not necessarily the most improved player, which is typically an unproven player who has a break out season. Second, it’s not a player getting only marginally better. Instead, it is a player who had a bad year, requiring significant improvement to return to form the following year. This category shortens the list extensively for the Indians. They have a lot of young players who have just recently broken onto the major league scene, coupled with some veterans who had only minor discrepancies in their career averages in 2014. There may also be a tendency to want to include a player like Carlos Santana because of his low batting average in 2014 or Gavin Floyd because he hasn’t played in many games in the last few years, but both players fail to fit the category.

Gavin actually had a decent 2014 season, posting the lowest ERA (2.65) in his entire Major league career, albeit only pitching 54 innings. The issue with Floyd however is that his 2012 (the last full season of pitching) numbers are only marginally higher than his career totals, as he largely has been a high ERA, end of the rotation starter. On the other hand, Carlos Santana’s batting average was his only flaw in 2014. Beyond that, he had a career high in RBI’s, tied his career high in home runs (27), and had 16 more walks than his next best season. Santana’s batting average fell victim to a slow start, a high strikeout rate, the evolution of the defensive shift, and an increased walked rate. Though he is not in the “rebound” category, it is likely we will see Santana improve his batting average in 2015, as his 2014 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) was .249, the lowest of his career and well below the league average of .300. Typically when a player has a low BABIP it means that they were hitting balls at the defense at a higher rate than normal, which is only arbitrarily connected to a player’s actual skill. That leaves the Indians with a couple players with the potential to rebound in 2015, one being Nick Swisher.

Nick Swisher

It’s no secret to Indians’ fans that Swisher was one of the worst hitters for the team in 2014. The main thing to recognize is that nobody really knows at what point in the season Swisher started having serious knee pain. The thing that we do know, by Swisher’s own admission, is that he played a significant amount of time muscling through his injuries. If the rumor that at some point before his surgery he had a hard time walking to the bathroom at night is true, then there should be little doubt that this crippled his hitting ability drastically. Whatever the cause, Swisher had the worst statistical season of his career outside of his rookie year. The difference between his career averages and his 2014 campaign is fairly shocking. Below is a chart comparing some of Swisher’s statistics from 2014 with his career average.

Once the stats are laid out, the result is about as bad as the pithy hate talk coming from the entire Cleveland fandom would lead one to believe. One reminder is that Swisher has never had a high batting average. However, Swisher has consistently had a good WAR rating, showing the limited part that batting average should play in evaluating Swisher’s 2014 performance.

The statistical comparison also demonstrates that a loss in power is the probable cause of Swisher’s 2014 problems and the greatest source of hope for him rallying in 2015. For example, if Swisher’s hits in 2014 are extrapolated for his career averages of at bats (to make up for the time he was out with injury), the difference is about 25 less hits in 2014. If the number of Swisher’s 2014 RBIs are extrapolated, he would have had around 20 RBI less than average. While the lack of hits indicates that Swisher making contact is clearly an issue, more concerning is Swisher’s obvious power loss. His ability to drive the ball seems to have disappeared, evidenced by his RBI count suffering, his home run count at a career low, his doubles well below his own career average, and the fact that he hit twice as many balls in the infield (IFH) than his career average. All of these strongly suggest that Swisher had trouble generating the amount of power he had in the past. So, Swisher shredded both meniscus’ and coincidentally he stopped being able to hit the ball? With Swisher’s knee issues combined with shoulder injury from 2013, it’s safe to assume his struggles at the plate are almost entirely the result of injury.

The big question is, can he rebound? That depends on the success of the surgery and whether he can generate power from his legs again. However, I vote YES. Swisher’s blighted 2013 and 2014 campaigns were injury riddled, resulting in inconsistent numbers and below average performance. The numbers indicate that Swisher hasn’t all of the sudden forgotten how to swing the pine but that he could barely feel his legs, which are apparently important for hitting 95 mile per hour fastballs out of the infield. The guy had trouble walking to the bathroom! Throw in a below average BABIP (.273) in 2014 and Swisher seems primed to prove Cleveland fans wrong. If Swisher comes back healthy, it is extremely likely that his numbers trend back towards his career averages. It also seems that Nick Swisher isn’t the kind of person to bet against in the face of adversity. Swisher’s overly documented love to be on the baseball field, combined with an attitude demonstrating his desire, keep up his end of a $56 million dollar obligation, and make him the best candidate for a big rebound in 2015. It should also be noted that Swisher has lost 15 pounds in anticipation of the 2015 season, contradicting anyone of the mind that he is just going to simply be collecting a paycheck. The arrow points up on Swisher, so hold on to your bitter rants Cleveland fans, Swisher’s 2015 season may leave you only moderately unfulfilled.

This leads to another question: will Swisher’s return to his career averages be enough to satiate talks of him being overpaid? Definitely not. Cleveland fans love their hate too much. Will Swisher’s return to the line-up help push Cleveland to the playoffs? It won’t hurt. In 2014 the Indians played in 49 games that were decided by one run. Of those 49 games, the Indians won 25, losing 24. A few more hits at the right times and the Indians could easily have made up the three game difference, and found themselves in the play-in game. Enter Nick Swisher. Despite the limited appearances in 2014, Fangraphs.com provides that Swisher held the highest Clutch (a rating measuring how a player does in high leverage situations) rating of anyone on the Indians’ roster and well above the league average with a .74 rating. So, does a healthy Swisher getting hits in the clutch, on a team that lost 24 games by one run bode well for the 2015 playoff push? You decide.