By-golly have the times changed in college football.
I can remember when there were six big games to conclude the college football season in 1992-93, back when it was known as the Bowl Coalition Pairings (BCP). From 1995-98, the BCP evolved into the Bowl Alliance Pairings (BAP); reducing to just four prominent games being played per bowl season: further heightening the exclusivity of these elite amateur football groupings. Last year, we seen the end of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), where the four top-notch bowl games would be played (Sugar, Fiesta, Rose, Orange) and one national championship game would decide the best team in the nation.
People grew tired of letting a computer system (BCS) determine who was worthy of a shot at national prominence and a spot in the history book; so now we’re here, at the doorsteps of the first ever college football playoff system, where four teams get the opportunity to duke it out for those same aforementioned acclaims.
However, the science behind it all leads me to believe that teams in the American Athletic Conference –like Memphis, Central Florida, East Carolina and Cincinnati – have no shot at this playoff in the foreseeable future. Not that any of these teams would qualify this year, with three and four losses each, but it’s still good to look at the odds moving forward.
Think of last year’s UCF squad, which lost one game all season, and that was to No. 12 South Carolina. Would it still have earned a spot in the four-team playoff system that’s being administered this year – who truly knows?
However, with the new determining formula weighing heavily on a teams’ strength of schedule, dominant wins (notice I didn’t just say wins), and even injuries sustained, play a factor in deciding what schools receive a playoff berth; three disadvantages to playing in a non-major Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conference.
So ultimately, where does that put teams like the 12-1, 2013-14 UCF team – seriously?
Since no teams in the American Athletic Conference would even come close to qualifying for the postseason playoff system, and it being the final year of AAC play with no conference championship game, I decided to have a little fun, for a few reasons:
- If UCF and Cincinnati both win this weekend, there will be a three-way tie for the conference title. Memphis has already secured its share with a win last weekend against UConn.
- If East Carolina beats UCF, and both Cincy and Memphis win (as assumed), the Tigers and Bearcats would be considered co-conference champs.
- I hate multiple champions; doesn’t that defeat the purpose of being a champion?
- The scheduling gods didn’t matchup Central Florida and Memphis, UCF and Cincy, nor East Carolina and Memphis, so no moral conference title can be awarded to any team.
- Cincinnati lost to Memphis in its conference opener, 41-14. However, the Bearcats lost star quarterback Gunner Keil to a rib injury just before halftime. Who knows what could have happened if he stayed healthy.
- Next year, Navy enters the eastern division of the conference, bringing the team count to 12. An actual conference championship game will be played, so there will be no more sharing or duplicating championship trophies. There will only be one winner.
So, in lieu of these many changes in college football postseason play, I’ve decided to put together my own little AAC playoff system, pairing the top-four teams (according to ranking) against each other to see who would truly come out with the conference gold.
Once again, this is all contingent on all UCF, Memphis and Cincinnati winning this weekend.
Let the (hypothetical) games begin!
Memphis vs. East Carolina
Something tells me that Memphis football is for real this year. It has put together a pretty impressive resume, only losing by seven on the road to No. 11 UCLA, and traveling to No. 12 Ole Miss. The Tigers’ only conference loss comes from a pesky Houston Cougars squad who was able to beat the Tigers on their home turf by four points. Otherwise, Memphis has been dominant on both offense and defense – ranking first in the AAC in rushing yards with 193.6 per game, and standing 7th in the country in points allowed per game with 17.1.
East Carolina looked to be the clear favorites to win conference earlier in the season as it surprised No. 17 Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, 28-21. Quarterback Shane Carden was able to score the go-ahead touchdown with 18-seconds remaining in regulation to secure the Pirates’ first win against the Hokies since 2008. ECU continued to roll winning the next five, then losing back-to-back games to Temple and Cincy. They’ve won their last two games and also boast the all-time leading receptionist in Division 1-A football history, Justin Hardy. With the momentum swinging in East Carolina’s direction, plus the third ranked passing attack in the nation, you’d think ECU would be able to put up major points against anyone.
As good as ECU’s air attack sounds, Memphis’ ability to control the clock through their ground attack, plus keep the Pirates’ formidable run game at-bay; I believe the Tigers would be able to win a close matchup between the No. 1 and No. 4 seed.
Seniors Shane Carden and Justin Hardy make the game interesting, but the overall play of Memphis would put the Pirates’ dreams to bed.
Memphis 24
East Carolina 20
UCF vs. Cincinnati
Cincinnati has, hands-down, the most talented quarterback in the league in sophomore Gunner Kiel. If Kiel played the second half against Memphis, it might have given the Bearcats at least a shot to compete and keep their conference record unscathed. The true x-factor here is the signal caller. Kiel seems to be the true difference maker as otherwise, Cincy isn’t great in any other category, but it is good at just about everything else – scoring 35.2 points per game and giving up 26.4. Its glaring weakness lies on the defensive side of the ball, where the Bearcats rank 9-out-of-11 in total yards allowed per game; shocking statistic for a team that only has one conference loss on the year.
Looking at UCF, its troubles are on the offensive end. Sophomore quarterback Justin Holman has struggled at playing to the level of consistency needed to give Central Florida an outright claim for the conference title. Unjustly, we’re probably just a bit spoiled from the performance Blake Bortles gave the Knights last season. Whenever Holman does play well, he usually finds his big-play receiver, junior Breshad Perriman who averages just over 20-yards per catch to go along with eight touchdowns.
The strength of this UCF team is in the defensive unit’s ability to limit opponents’ chances to score. UCF’s defense has given up the least amount of passing yards and overall touchdowns scored on the season, which speaks volumes about the level of consistency they give week-in and week-out. The Knights also aren’t too shabby stuffing the run, as they rank second only to East Carolina in yards allowed within the American Athletic Conference. Many wonder how the Knights slipped to a struggling Connecticut team midway through the season; with these defensive traits, it’s hard to believe how anyone in the AAC could put up major points against such a stout unit.
Cincy boasts an even attack that could give the Knights a fit, but would their defense be strong enough to stop the big-play ability in Holman-to-Perriman? My football senses always tell me to go with the guys who can get it done on defense – in this case – its UCF.
UCF 28
Cincinnati 17
Memphis vs. Central Florida (Championship Game)
What happens when an unstoppable force meets the unmovable object? A Memphis/Central Florida football game might answer that question.
However, since we’re only speaking in the hypothetical here, I honestly think that UCF’s defense could match up well against the Tigers, considering that Memphis ranks fifth in the AAC, in passing yards allowed per game. Of course the Knights rank first within the league in pass defense, and both Memphis and UCF are comparable in their ability to stop the run.
The key to winning would come down to the Knights ability to keep the Tigers out of the red zone, as Memphis has only failed to score on three attempts inside the opponent’s 20 yard line all season. But both schools have only given up 10, count ‘em, 10 red zone scores throughout the year.
It sounds like this would an interesting game, if these two teams battled for conference gold, but one area that could separate the two teams is their respective special teams units.
UCF has been money this year only missing six field goals (15-of-21), while Memphis has missed 10 (19-of-29). Atop of that, Central Florida boasts the only kickoff return touchdown in the league, thus far, this year.
When the teams match up this well, you’ve got to be meticulous in order to pick a winner – that’s why I think Central Florida could beat the Tigers; simply, because its defense is stout enough to force the ball out of Memphis’ hands, big plays could aid the Knights passing game, and the special teams unit has the ability to keep the Tigers out of good field position.
UCF 27
Memphis 24
In reality, the Knights have their only shot at conference prominence for the 2014 season, and that’s through East Carolina this evening.
While it’s been fun to imagine what could be – and I seriously do think UCF could beat anyone in The American – the Knights must still handle their business and fight for at least a slice of the conference championship pie.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
