Indians Sign Bruce Chen

According to Jon Heyman on Twitter:

Bruce Chen agrees to minors deal with Indians. $1M base, plus $1M performance bonuses

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) February 17, 2015

The Indians interest in adding another relief pitcher has been rumored of late including interest in left hander Barry Zito as recent as this past week. It appears they have acquired their extra lefty in Bruce Chen with the standard minor league risk-free deal. If Chen makes the team, he will earn that $1M base salary and with his unknown bonuses, could make up to $2M, but because it is a minor league deal, those numbers aren’t guaranteed if he doesn’t make the team, allowing them more freedom in upcoming roster decisions than they have with many other players.

The major question with this signing is where does Chen fit. Prior to the signing, the Indians easily had eight Major League quality starting pitchers and three high level left handed match-up men in the bullpen. In his 16 year career, Chen has been used as a short reliever, long reliever and starter in his career, but in the past two seasons he split his time almost equally between starts and relief appearances. Battling injuries in 2014, Chen pitched in just 13 games (seven starts) and was less than effective, posting a 7.45 ERA in 48.1 innings.

Chen’s up and down career provides and excellent reason to ignore conventional statistics and go straight to the FIP. Of those 16 years, Chen finished eight with an ERA above 5.00 and six below 4.00, but all but three of those seasons were within one run of his career average 4.91 FIP. Two of those three seasons (all of which were more than a run above 4.91) came when he pitched 45 games across 2006 and 2007 before missing all of 2008 with injury.

After coming back from more than a year away from the game, it was in 2009 that Chen signed with the Royals on a similar minor league deal to the one signed yesterday. After making the squad that season, Chen continued on with short contracts that kept him in Kansas City until he was released last September. While many Royals fans would have preferred Chen to return for 2015, the 37 year old was the weakest member of a very strong bullpen last year and, like the Indians, the Royals have little room on the 25 man roster for Chen.

Looking at what should be expected for Chen in 2015, it returns to the question of why he was signed in the first place. Chen has never posted an FIP below 4.00 in his career (his best was 4.12 in 2013 while his best ERA was for Baltimore in 2004 with a 3.02) and as he enters his age 38 season, it is hard to imagine him entering into a second prime. As he has proven over his career, there isn’t a great correlation between ERA and FIP, but Indians management should prepare for a pitcher of 5.00 ERA quality.

Assuming a pitcher of that quality won’t be able to break into the starting rotation, a competition that already includes Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, Zach McAllister, T.J. House and possibly Shaun Marcum for one available spot, Chen would be working on crashing what should be a very talented seven man bullpen. Considering his 1.80 ERA and 28/8 K/BB rate in his rookie campaign, there should be no possible way that Kyle Crockett doesn’t make it on the 2015 starting 25 man roster and with a $2.4M deal for the year already in place, only injury could keep Marc Rzepczynski off the roster. Not even mentioned, Nick Hagadone posted a 2.37 ERA with a .191 BAA in the second half of 2014 and with a 10.4 K/9 rate, he deserves at least a chance to make the roster. This easily gives the Indians three left handed relievers and eight starters who are of better standards than Chen, without looking into the minors.

This looks like another signing in the line of Jason Giambi and Ryan Raburn for Chris Antonetti. Should Chen make the team, he will almost certainly be a less effective pitcher than the person whose place he takes, whether it is as a long reliever, taking a spot from McAllister or Tomlin or as a LOOGY, taking a spot from Crockett or Hagadone. Speaking of loogies, Chen allowed a .310 average against left handers in 2014 and in his career, he has actually been better against right handers (check the stats above). Just like Giambi in 2014, housing Chen on the 2015 roster would be a total tragedy to the team and the other players involved.

In fact, simply playing around with Chen during Spring Training hurts the Tribe. Hagadone will already have to fight for real game at bats with Crockett, Rzepczynski and Spring Training invitees Scott Downs, Nick Maronde and Michael Roth. Legitimately, the Indians could already have more left handers than right in the bullpen when the season begins (if House was used as a long man instead of being sent to AAA as will more likely happen) and since that almost certainly won’t happen, those with real shots will need all the game time they can get to prove themselves. Giving meaningless innings to a 38 year old that could otherwise be meaningful if thrown by Hagadone, Crockett or even Downs and Maronde is an absolute waste of talent.

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