Beating the Spread: AAC Week 15

One more point. That’s all I needed from ECU to cover in its game against Tulsa to finally have a perfect week against the spread. But, such is life, and Week 14 was certainly a success for me as I went 4-1 ATS by taking all the favorites. My record on the season now sits at 34-28-1, and with four games this week that means I am guaranteed a winning record on the season.

But why settle for that? I still have the opportunity to get that elusive undefeated week, and obviously my main obligation is to my readers (you do exist, right?) looking for a little betting advice.

I’m not sure if the conference schedule makers thought the title would come down to the last week or not, but if not they certainly got lucky when they saved UCF at ECU and Houston at Cincinnati for the end considering what’s still at stake. So, with that said, here are my picks to beat the spread in the AAC in Week 15.

Thursday

UCF @ ECU (-7), 7:30 p.m. ET

The #AACTION kicks off early this week, as we get one of the premier games of the AAC season tonight. UCF still has a chance to share the conference title with Memphis (and Cincinnati, too), but the Knights will have to do it as a road underdog at ECU’s Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

This match-up features ECU’s elite offense against a similarly elite UCF defense. The Pirates rank third in the FBS in total offense (543.8 ypg), and 13th in scoring offense (37.8 ppg). Meanwhile, the Knights rank fourth in total defense (271.2 ypg), and fifth in scoring defense (16.8 ppg). So, the question is: what will give?

In this column and others I have written throughout the year I have said over and over again that in this era of football I am always betting on a good offense to hold true to its stats over a good defense. And I believe that to be true in this case, as I think the Pirates will find a way to squeak by the Knights for a victory at home.

However, we are picking this game to beat the spread my friends, and UCF is getting a touchdown here. When two teams are evenly matched, and I believe these two are, you cannot give the points purely because it’s the wrong bet to make. So, while I have been living on the favorites the last few weeks, I am taking the points and going with the Knights in what should be a close game.

Saturday

Houston @ Cincinnati (-7), Noon ET

Like UCF, Cincinnati still has a shot to grab a slice of the conference crown with a win in the final week of its season, but luckily for the Bearcats they get to play in front of a home crowd. About a month ago Houston stubbed its toe with a loss to Tulane at home, or else we could be talking about the Cougars still having a shot at and AAC championship as well.

Much like the UCF vs. ECU game, this one matches up a great offense and a great defense. Houston’s defense ranks 10th in the FBS in scoring (17.8 ppg) and 13th in total defense (319.5 ypg). As for the Bearcats, they rank 26th and 28th in scoring (35.2 ppg) and total (453.9 ypg) offense, respectively, in the country.

After losing three straight to Ohio State, Memphis and Miami (Fla.), Cincinnati has been on fire, winning six straight. In those three losses, the Bearcats were historically terrible on defense, but have since rebounded to hold its opponents under 20 points in five of those six straight wins, including a shutout on the road at UConn. While those five games were against bottom-run AAC competition, it is still an improvement for a defense that allowed Toledo and Miami (Oh.) to score 34 and 24 points, respectively.

One interesting statistic here is that the Cougars are 4-0 ATS on the road in 2014 while the Bearcats are only 3-2 ATS at home. However, I think with the AAC title on the line, Cincinnati’s explosive offense will take over this game while the defense will continue its upward trend. I will lay the points here and take the ‘Cats to cover.

SMU @ UConn (-12), Noon ET

This game is about as opposite of the first two I discussed you can get in terms of level of play, watch-ability, etc. I think I may actually dub this the “AAC Futility Bowl.”

Wanna know how bad SMU is? UConn is ranked 126th of 128 teams (SMU being 128th, of course) in scoring offense with an average of 15.1 ppg, and the Huskies are FAVORED by 12, I repeat, 12 points in this game.

Rather than waste your and my time diving deeper into any numbers, I’m going to go back to my “golden rule” of betting on SMU games in 2014: no matter what the spread, eat the points and take the other team. UConn will win, and they will somehow manage to do it by more than 12.

Temple (-3) @ Tulane, 7:30 p.m. ET

I’m not sure what happened to Temple’s offense, but it has gone straight down the tubes of late as the Owls have lost five of their last six and averaged just 12.7 points in that span. With bowl eligibility on the line in a road game against a not-so-good Tulane team, Temple needs to put an end to this downward spiral.

The Green Wave defense may be just what the doctor ordered for P.J. Walker and the Owls offense, as they have allowed their opponents to score 30.1 ppg this season and have lost their last two games by a combined score of 72 to 13.

I expect this game to be low-scoring and pretty ugly, but I have no doubt that Temple is the better team. It appears Vegas agrees, considering they have the Owls favored by three on the road, meaning they would probably like them by about six on a neutral field. So, lay the three points and feel confident in Temple covering the spread.

Well, that’s it for the “Beating the Spread” column for the regular season folks. I hope you enjoyed and/or profited from my lackluster betting advice this season, and thank you for reading! I am thinking I will probably have some picks ATS for the AAC teams heading off to bowls and possibly even a “season summary” article to wrap-up how I’ve fared this year. So, stay tuned for those posts, and as always, good luck and enjoy this week’s #AACTION!