I’m excited about the Cleveland Indians heading into the 2015 season although I don’t think they will win the American League Central Division, despite the trendy pick status granted by some national publications and writers along predictions by my colleagues at Burning River Baseball.
The Detroit Tigers to me seem to have more firepower on offense, plus a more established starting rotation that should carry them to the top, despite a bullpen that isn’t quite as good as the Indians’. With that said, I do think the Indians will contend for the playoffs as the Central Division shapes up to be the toughest in baseball. A wild card berth should be in order for the Tribe in 2015.
The biggest key to success is whether the starting rotation can come together, especially after the injury to Gavin Floyd and the disappointing spring training and subsequent demotion to AAA for Danny Salazar.
I will defend the Indians on the free agent signing of Floyd, despite his injury history. Yes, Floyd will cost the team $4 million this season and likely won’t provide any value to the team, but in reality it was just a small gamble that didn’t come through.
The Tribe needed to take the risk in part because it didnât cost them a player and in the grand scheme of things Floyd will cost the team only about 5 percent of the teamâs payroll in 2015. With the starting pitching depth diminished somewhat, I’m concerned the rotation lacks a second veteran starter who can eat up innings and provide the team a chance to win on most nights.
Kluber won the Cy Young last year and definitely is one of the top pitchers in baseball who is poised to have another great season. Can we clone him? But it’s starters two through five that have me worried headed into the season. Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer are locks to fill out the rotation and with the last two spots coming down to T.J. House, Zach McAllister or Josh Tomlin.
Those last two spots are going to be occupied by the winners among three candidates who each come with a lot of uncertainty.
House was a great addition to the staff last year and the fact that heâs left-handed is a plus, but can he repeat his performance from last season?
McAlister was so bad last year that he was banished to the bullpen, where he did find some success in September, but Iâm concerned about whether he also can make that translate into being a starter. It worked well for Carrasco last year, so can history repeat itself?
When it comes to Josh Tomlin, the less the Indians rely on him to be a starter, the better. Sure he doesn’t walk guys. But Tomlin gives up a ton of home runs and when he makes mistakes he’s easy for Major League hitters to hit and drive the ball hard. It also seems that if the team makes an error on defense, the Tomlin loses focus and gives up a big inning.
Salazar also doesnât appear to have his control yet and, despite all his talent, heâs still not ready to be a full-time Major League player. I believe heâll be back in the rotation sooner than later though, whether itâs because of an injury to someone else or he dominates AAA hitters.
Carrasco and Bauer are poised to have solid seasons, but even they donât have a long track record of success. Carrasco has the potential to be an ace, but also the potential to be a bust. Bauer should be better, but what’s his ceiling? Can he win 12-15 games?
The bullpen is what makes this teamâs pitching staff solid overall because if the starter can make it through six innings with a lead then itâs a pretty safe bet the Indians are going to finish the game with a victory.
I especially like the Indians move in the off-season to trade infielder Joe Wendle to the Oakland A’s for 1B/OF Brandon Moss. This deal has the potential to be a steal for the Tribe as Moss appears to be completely healthy headed into the regular season. A 30-plus home run season is quite possible with an all-star track record like his.
Moss should provide a power bat to protect Carlos Santana in the middle of the lineup and hopefully that will enable the former catcher to see better pitches to hit and allow him to drive in more runs. Santana should also shine now that he doesnât have to catch.
A great concern though is the Indians defense. Jose Ramirez offers a huge improvement at shortstop, but what other positions on the diamond have been upgraded defensively to improve the worst defense in baseball in 2014?
The sound of crickets when pondering that question is alarming. To me, thatâs whatâs going to make the difference on whether the Tribe can win the division and make a deep run in the playoffs. If they play average defense, then a 90-win season isnât far-fetched because the hitting should be there and an average starting rotation can be helped out by an excellent bullpen.
Some clamored for the Indians to have kept shortstop Francisco Lindor on the 25-man roster to start the season to help the defense, but that would have been a mistake in my book.
The young phenom has played less than a full season at the AAA level and needs to sharpen his hitting skills before making the jump to the Majors. He would improve the defense greatly and allow Ramirez to be a utility player like Mike Aviles, but when the time comes to bring Lindor up, it should be to stay not to bounce back and forth between Columbus. Also waiting a couple months to bring him up will delay his service time clock and allow him to be under the Indians control an additional year.
There is a lot of uncertainty with the Indians in 2015, but there I think there is more potential than not for a playoff season. The key is if injuries can stay away and improved health of players such as Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn.
If Swisher and Bourn can have just average seasons, then the Tribe’s offense should be just fine, although I’m not certain what to think about 2B Jason Kipnis.
Iâm wondering if weâll see the return of a guy who can hit for a decent average, steal some bases, club a few home runs and drive in some runs. Kipnis certainly isnât in the lineup for his defense and neither is 3B Lonnie Chisenhall, who needs to hit well enough to justify his spot in the lineup. Giovanni Urshela will knock on the door at the third base if Chisenhall flops.
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